After a spate of upsets and flaccid fighting, interest in the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix is seeping away like helium from a balloon in the days following a kid’s birthday party where the clown never showed. And the ice cream tasted like freezer.
But to walk away now would be to miss some interesting stylistic matchups and some potentially terrific fights between four veterans who hail from around the world and sport a combined MMA record of 99-22-1.
Three of the four (maybe all four) are not exactly household names, but one of them and maybe more will take a big step in that direction once the Grand Prix is all said and done.
So after last Saturday’s action at Strikeforce Dallas, who’s the favorite to go all the way?
On one side, you’ve got American grappler and former pro wrestler Josh Barnett against one of the most underrated heavyweights in the world (in my opinion) in Sergei Kharitonov.
Kharitonov is fairly well-rounded, but his bread and butter is his thudding standup game (11 of his 18 wins have come by way of a striking-related stoppage). Barnett, on the other hand, is a grappler’s grappler, and proved in his quarterfinal submission win over Brett Rogers that he hasn’t lost his touch after nearly a year away from the ring.
The heart says Kharitonov on this one (especially since Kharitonov and tourney favorite Alistair Overeem have split two bloody and entertaining matches thus far in their careers), but the head says Barnett.
While Kharitonov always has a puncher’s chance, Barnett has shown he still has the capability to take someone to the mat and hold them there. Kharitonov is working to improve his takedown defense, but it probably will not be at the world-class level it would need to be to consistently stuff Barnett’s shots. Barnett wins by unanimous decision.
On the other side, Strikeforce heavyweight champion Overeem takes on Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva, who defeated Fedor Emelianenko in the Grand Prix’s opening round. Many observers are calling Overeem the favorite, to win the whole enchilada, and understandably so.
But I’m calling the upset. Overeem is a stupendous kickboxer and physical specimen, but has shown a propensity to be tentative when faced with an opponent who can’t be bum-rushed. I believe Silva is one of those opponents.
Bigfoot has the size, power, boxing and takedowns to pose a threat both vertically and horizontally. This won’t be a Fabricio Werdum Part Deux; Silva converts 70 percent of his takedown attempts, according to CompuStrike, and thus should be able to put Overeem on his back.
And having earned 12 of his 16 victories through KO or other striking-related stoppage, Silva knows what to do once the fight gets there. And he’ll certainly try to use his power in any event to break through to Overeem’s chin (he’s been knocked out seven times).
Silva wins by second-round TKO. And once again, Overeem fails to capitalize on the big stage.
With the tournament’s two most glamorous fighters watching from the sidelines, a Josh Barnett vs. Antonio Silva final will feel a bit like San Antonio Spurs vs. New York Knicks, back when the Knicks were scoring 65 a game and giving up 60. (Guess which fighter is the Knicks!)
Barnett will surely try to control Silva on the ground, but Bigfoot’s size and grappling savvy (he is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, after all) should help him there. And if Silva can stuff a few takedowns and keep the fight upright, I think he can use his heavy hands, sharp Muay Thai and relatively fresh legs to inflict major damage.
Barnett is a tough customer, which makes a stoppage unlikely. But he’s also 33 years old, and Silva ain’t Brett Rogers.
Antonio Silva wins the Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix by unanimous decision. And maybe, just maybe, a star is born.
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