UFC 202 is on Saturday, and if you haven’t looked closely, you might have missed the fact that there are other fights on the card aside from Nate Diaz vs. Conor McGregor. You can understand how that fight would suck all the energy (and energy drink cans) out of a room, and while it’s the bout with the biggest monetary stakes, it isn’t the one with the greatest title implications.
That designation falls to the co-main event, a light heavyweight matchup pitting top-ranked contender Anthony “Rumble” Johnson against No. 2 Glover Teixeira. The winner will most likely get a late fall date with current champion Daniel Cormier.
On paper, it makes perfect sense, and while the fight is certain to produce its share of fireworks, it also highlights the issues related to the lack of divisional depth. Both Johnson and Teixeira have had opportunities at the belt since the start of 2014, and few are clamoring for them to receive return engagements.
Unfortunately for UFC matchmakers, there is no other direction in which to turn. Elephant in the room Jon Jones is still awaiting word on his suspension status based on a potential anti-doping violation. Alexander Gustafsson’s lost two straight. Ryan Bader and Ovince St. Preux are both coming off losses. No one else in the top 10 has made much of a case for inclusion into the debate, so this is what we have, a division with one option.
Joining me to discuss the excitement level—or lack thereof—is MMA Lead Writer Chad Dundas.
Mike Chiappetta: Chad, I have to admit to feeling conflicted about this fight. On one hand, it has the potential to be a straight-up thrill ride. Johnson fires off his limbs like heat-seeking missiles and Teixeira has never met a firefight he’s backed away from. He runs to conflict. That means it’s quite likely that one man is going to add to his highlight reel and the other is going to leave with a very bad headache. From the selfish perspective of pure entertainment, it seems like a can’t-miss option.
On the other hand, the purpose of the match is to build to something, and that’s where we run into problems. The division seems to have stagnated to the point of staleness. Even if you accept Cormier as its rightful and proper champion, there have been precious few arrivals lately to shake up the division and threaten for the belt. Nikita Krylov has shown promise, as has Misha Cirkunov, but both seem at least a year or two away from contending, if they ever get there at all. And doesn’t it make it difficult to get excited about a division when it’s constantly the same cast of characters? Sports requires a certain amount of turnover in talent, and without an infusion of newcomers, the light heavyweights are sputtering.
Chad Dundas: If it were happening in a vacuum there would be nothing wrong with a matchup between Rumble and Teixeira. As you note, it comes preloaded with a high probability of violence. Maybe if you’re looking for nothing more than a high-octane, no-strings-attached palate cleanser before Diaz vs. McGregor, this fits the bill just fine.
But, man, this is the light heavyweight division we’re talking about here. This is supposed to be the glamour weight class of the UFC. The division of Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Chuck Liddell, for pity’s sake. The division of Jon Jones! And really, the trouble here is that the very notion of Johnson vs. Teixeira as a No. 1 contender bout only underscores how far 205 pounds has fallen.
Everybody likes and respects Cormier a great deal, but it told me this division was in serious trouble when his UFC 192 barnburner against Gustafsson garnered just 250,000 pay-per-view buys, according to estimates from Dave Meltzer’s Wrestling Observer Newsletter (via MMA Payout). Can you imagine the UFC even trying to headline a PPV with a fight between Cormier and either Rumble or Teixeira?
I, myself, cannot.
It seems the only thing that might lift the fortunes of light heavyweight is the speedy return of Jones. To that end, at least we might be on the verge of getting good news.
Mike, are we really just killing time until Jones gets back? Can there be a workable storyline on the horizon at 205 pounds beyond Bones’ pursuit of all-time greatness?
Mike: The decline of the light heavyweight class is one of the most concerning and underreported developments in the UFC right now. While it’s true that it has always been difficult to find talent in the bigger weight classes, I am surprised that we haven’t seen more of an influx in the last few years based upon the era of stars you just mentioned. I wish some enterprising manager would visit NFL camps and pick off the 20-something linebackers and running backs that don’t make a final roster. There is actually money to be made now for big men, and anyone with top-shelf athleticism and a proven willingness to engage in contact sports would have a road paved for them if they’re willing to put in the effort.
To be fair, I think the criticism of the division needs to be made independent of Johnson and Teixeira, who are two studs with strong records. Johnson, for instance, was thought to be the most intriguing matchup for Jones based upon his unrelenting power and defensive wrestling skills. That’s a matchup that the world would still want to see. And Teixeira is almost always exciting.
I think this division suffers from Jones’ absence as much as talent issues. Everything within it is viewed from that prism, and he’s going to continue to be a specter until he returns. Until then, it’s a waiting game. So what’s the best-case scenario here, Chad? Frankly, I think it’s a Teixeira win. At least he offers a fresh matchup for Cormier, although his inability to stop the takedown against wrestlers (Patrick Cummins, Phil Davis and Jones combined for 16 takedowns against him, according to FightMetric statistics) seems like a major issue. Either way, the excitement meter isn’t hitting peak levels, and that’s a problem.
Chad: If the existence of guys like Cirkunov and Krylov predicts anything it’s that the next wave of great—or even good, I’ll totally settle for good right now—205-pounders probably isn‘t going to come from America. Absent a fantasy recruitment strategy like the one you mentioned, which I’m absolutely willing to fund as soon as I make my fortune, by the way, light heavyweight’s best hope is likely an influx of international talent.
Our colleagues Scott Harris and Patrick Wyman tabbed four 205-pounders this year for Bleacher Report’s annual list of MMA’s top 25 up-and-coming prospects. If you’re scoring at home, they were Paul Craig (Scotland), Vadim Nemkov (Russia), Jiri Prochazka (Czech Republic) and Mikhail Mokhnatkin (Russia).
Hopefully, we’ll all be learning how to pronounce those last couple names sometime very soon.
If you ask me, the No. 1 priority for the UFC during the second half of 2016 and beyond should be snapping up as much blue-chip talent in the heavyweight and light heavyweight divisions as possible. Otherwise, I don’t know how these two weight classes will even survive without some doomsday scenario where you have to combine them into one—and nobody wants that.
As far as this specific fight goes? I agree with you that the best-case scenario is a Teixeira win. If he proves durable and wily enough to avoid Johnson’s early flurries, perhaps he can drag Rumble to the mat and turn this into a long, slow slog (sorry, PPV viewers!). Johnson’s primary weakness has always been his cardio and testing it through clinch work and wrestling is likely Teixeira’s best path to the victory.
Unfortunately for him, if I were I betting man, I’d wager Johnson’s speed and power win the day here. I think Teixeira is too plodding to avoid the early storm. I’ve got Rumble by first-round KO.
How about you, Mike?
Mike: Against my better judgment, I’m going to slightly lean in the other direction. Johnson’s early storm is indeed terrifying, and there’s no question a first-round knockout is a real possibility, perhaps even the most likely one. However, Teixeira has proven himself to be nothing if not incredibly durable. He’s only been finished on strikes a single time in his career, and that was in his professional debut back in 2002.
If he can survive those opening barrages, Teixeira can sustain a blistering pace, while Johnson has been known to fade late. I can see an instance where Teixeira uses volume to overcome the power differential, or manages to take it to the ground, where he has the matchup’s biggest edge. He has a crushing mount and is equally adept at submissions and ground strikes. If Johnson finds himself on his back, the fight’s complexion will shift greatly.
I have to admit that over the course of this conversation, I’ve managed to work up a bit more interest in this fight. It is an intriguing matchup and a meaningful one, and we shouldn’t allow any criticism of the division to distort that.
That said, it’s hard not to think about what we’ll wake up to on Sunday morning. One of these guys will probably be headed to another title match against a guy who many still can’t view as the rightful champion. These are strange days in light heavyweight land, so I guess we should all accept the moments of enjoyment when we can.
Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com