With Michael Bisping atop the UFC’s middleweight division, anything seems possible. Below him, contenders aplenty are patiently waiting their turns. Yoel Romero seems likely to get the next opportunity to fight for the belt, but Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza isn’t far behind, and neither are Luke Rockhold and Gegard Mousasi.
One level below that group lies two hard-chargers trying to blast their way into the conversation. Robert Whittaker, 25, and Derek Brunson, 32, are ranked seventh and eighth, respectively, in the UFC rankings, and will pair off Saturday in the main event of a UFC Fight Night event in Melbourne, Australia.
Both fighters have been surging of late, carrying five-fight win streaks into the bout, and the winner will have a rock-solid case for a matchup with one of the big names that can vault them toward a title bout.
But is either fighter championship material? Joining me to discuss the fight and their future prospects is colleague and Lead MMA Writer Chad Dundas.
Mike Chiappetta: Following a weekend with a ton of MMA, this event is being met with shrugs, if it’s even noticed at all. That’s no fault of Whittaker or Brunson, who have little support on a card that, besides them, doesn’t feature a single other Top 15 fighter.
Still, they’re playing for real stakes. A defeat will send the loser tumbling from a title picture that is already bogged down by the champion’s eye injury along with a glut of contenders clogging the road ahead.
According to Odds Shark, Brunson is a slight favorite to win. That sounds right to me, mostly because of Brunson’s more rounded game.
Whittaker is a great stand-up fighter with quickness, pop and a mastery of distance that gives trouble to anyone who can’t take him down. Brunson, though, does manage to take down opponents when he sets his mind to it. His takedown accuracy—37 percent, according to FightMetric—is below average, but, then again, he managed to take down Olympic silver medalist Romero three times when they fought.
The contrast of styles should make it an interesting fight, but to return to our original question, it seems like a tall order for either Brunson or Whittaker to jump into the title challenger spot anytime soon, through no fault of their own.
It’s one thing to vault a guy or two in front of you, but it’s not like Souza, Rockhold and Mousasi are going anywhere. All of them are performing at a high level, and it’s hard to imagine either Brunson or Whittaker working their way past them by, say, the end of 2017.
Part of that is because both have fallen short in the past against this caliber of opponent. While Brunson has lost to both Souza and Romero, Whittaker was defeated by Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson when he was still competing at welterweight. It’s certainly possible that those experiences will make them better for the next such opportunity, but I’m just not convinced I’ve seen the type of dynamic and complete games necessary to win the championship out of either. There have been flashes of brilliance from both, and maybe that potential is there. Chad, what do you think?
Chad Dundas: I really like both Brunson and Whittaker as prospects. Even though this relatively low-profile Fight Night event is buried in the crowded wash between UFC 205 and UFC 206, fights like this one make paying attention worthwhile.
Brunson especially has been primed for a breakout. He’s one of those athletes that I look at and wonder why he doesn‘t get a little bit more love in the UFC landscape. After closing out his Strikeforce career with back-to-back losses in 2012, he’s gone 7-1 in the UFC. His last four fights have all ended in first-round stoppage victories, an impressive feat as he has slowly and steadily worked his way up the ranks.
That lone loss, as you mentioned, came against current No. 1 contender Romero. The thing that sticks out to me as I re-watch it, however, is that Brunson was actually getting the better of Romero through two-and-a-half rounds. In fact, he was on the verge of winning that fight before he began to tire and Romero caught him with one of his trademark late surges of terrible violence with just 97 seconds left.
Imagine how differently the middleweight landscape might be today if Brunson had managed to hold on.
Alas, he didn’t and now both he and Whittaker find themselves behind that gaggle of front-runners all after Bisping‘s title. The good news for this pairing, however, might be that one of those people is bound to be left out in the cold.
We think Bisping and Romero will square off for the title in the spring. It’s also a good bet that Rockhold and Souza end up finally getting together for a rematch. That means that Chris Weidman and/or Mousasi might end up on the outside looking in.
If the Brunson-Whittaker winner can score a date with someone of either Weidman or Mousasi‘s magnitude, it would be a tremendous opportunity.
What do you think, Mike? Am I too bullish on the winner here?
Mike: Your outlook on both is understandable. Brunson as of late has become particularly compelling because he has suddenly added surprising power to his game, knocking out four opponents in a row, something he’d never even done in his early days fighting in lower organizations. And it’s also true that he was leading Romero and on the way to victory when he lost.
What that ignores, however, is that Brunson also ran out of gas against Romero, and hasn’t had to go past the first round in over two years. Now faced with the prospect of going into five-round fights, that’s an X-factor we can’t overlook. While I’m sure he’s worked on his conditioning, you just never know how the work will manifest itself until it’s on display and under pressure.
Moreover, while Brunson has undoubtedly improved, so has Romero. So has Jacare. So has Mousasi.
While Brunson seems to have the physical tools to compete with anyone in the division, I guess I need to see him beat one of the top five before I can truly believe in him as championship material. As we all know, there’s often a big jump between where he is and the very top.
Does he have the talent to navigate that breach? Yes, but for now, I remain a bit of a skeptic.
Perhaps Whittaker has more upside, based solely upon his age. The division isn’t as old as the land of the dinosaur heavyweights, but there’s not a lot of young talent. In fact, he and Krzysztof Jotko, 27, are the only Top 15 middleweights under 30.
Whittaker’s youth means not only does he have plenty of time to improve, he’s also yet to reach his physical peak. After struggling to make 170, his body has matured nicely into a middleweight, but there may be even more room to add strength and power. As long as he keeps working on his ground game and wrestling, there’s a lot to like there.
Ultimately, this bout serves as a great measuring tool because it pits two fighters who have yet to take that step. One of them will win and get to make it, and the other will regroup.
If I had to bet if either would make the leap to champion, I’d guess Whittaker, but I wouldn’t wager much. But maybe he (or Brunson) will force me to re-evaluate my thinking.
How about you, Chad? Which one do you see continuing his rise?
Chad: I like Brunson‘s well-rounded skills to nab him the win here, but just barely. This fight might well come down to either Brunson‘s power punches on the feet or Whittaker’s ability to defend the takedown.
Whittaker should be the more polished striker and may want to set a higher pace than Brunson is comfortable with. After all, when we’ve seen Brunson falter in the Octagon, it was his wind that did him in. That means Brunson will have to either get to Whittaker’s chin early or turn this into a grappling match.
And Mike? I guess I’m just old school enough to go with the guy I think of as the better wrestler in fights that otherwise seem too close to call. Brunson doesn‘t have the sort of world-class amateur wrestling credentials of a Romero, but he was a three-time Division II All-American at the University of North Carolina-Pembroke.
He was also a longtime pupil at Renzo Gracie’s famed Brazilian jiu-jitsu academy before turning his MMA career over to the savants at Greg Jackson’s New Mexico-based fight team.
If he doesn‘t let Whittaker light him up with combinations, I like Brunson to turn this into a painful, ground-based evening for the New Zealander.
Whether such a performance will give Brunson‘s star the momentum it needs to start turning heads, I don’t know. But I’m cautiously optimistic he’ll be able to run his current win streak to six, and that ain’t too shabby no matter how he gets it done.
Mike: I guess that’s the key thing here, that one of these gentlemen will pick up a win, extend a streak, and to be able to state that by virtue of defeating the other, he is on the way.
Whether it’s Brunson or Whittaker, there are still many obstacles ahead. If either had the good fortune of being a light heavyweight or heavyweight, six straight wins would be more than enough to put you into position to challenge for the championship and put you one good strike away from the belt.
It’s not quite enough at middleweight, and that’s why I’m not more bullish on either. That said, minds can be changed rather quickly in this sport. Maybe for one of these two, a stride has been hit and a balance has been created that will see him continue to rise. Maybe it’s the continuation of something great and unexpected. Because if there’s one thing we’ve learned in a division with Bisping as champion, anything is possible.
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