The Question: Will Vitor Belfort or Gegard Mousasi Rise from Middleweight Pack?

The UFC middleweight division was thrown into upheaval when Michael Bisping captured the championship on short notice back in June. Since then, there has been little movement among the division’s Top 10, but the picture will gain some clarity aft…

The UFC middleweight division was thrown into upheaval when Michael Bisping captured the championship on short notice back in June. Since then, there has been little movement among the division’s Top 10, but the picture will gain some clarity after Saturday night’s UFC 204. Before Bisping attempts to defend the belt against Dan Henderson in the night’s main event, contenders Vitor Belfort and Gegard Mousasi square off in an attempt to clear the logjam and vault closer to the front of the pack.

For veteran observers of the sport, this is an intriguing matchup that was long debated and imagined and for several reasons. Both have held multiple titles in multiple organizations. Both are among the top finishers in the sport. And both have their own respective styles that when taken together, are quite the contrast: The fifth-ranked Belfort is a coiled ball of muscle who fights in angry bursts, while the ninth-ranked Mousasi always appears serene and unperturbed even while perpetrating in-cage barbarity.

So what are the stakes, and what’s likely to go down? Joining me to discuss it is my colleague, MMA Lead Writer Chad Dundas.

    

Mike Chiappetta: Chad, with apologies to the headliners, this matchup is the one I’m most anticipating on Saturday night. Partly because it’s a pairing that could have happened on a couple of previous occasions (notably the ill-fated Affliction 3), partly because they are just so different.

While Belfort’s big and flashy blitzes are far more storied in MMA, Mousasi’s cerebral and systematic decimations to me are in some ways more impressive. He’s rarely done it on physicality alone; instead, he relies on superior fight IQ, beating opponents on adaptability one detail at a time until it becomes an avalanche of advantage.

To me, Mousasi is one of the criminally underrated fighters of all time. He’s won fights in divisions ranging from middleweight to heavyweight, captured belts in Strikeforce and DREAM, and has stopped opponents in 32 of his 39 victories.

To be candid, I’d like to see him move up the ranks and get an opportunity at a UFC title, and Belfort is a fair bellwether. Mousasi has won four of his last five, and a win over Belfort can propel him a few spots forward in a congested division.

Belfort’s possibilities upon victory are both interesting and vague. On one hand, he has fairly recent wins over both Bisping and Henderson; on the other, he is now 39 years old and has lost two of his last three.

What do you think, Chad, who has more to win? Who has more to lose?

    

Chad Dundas: Considering their positions on the official UFC rankingswhere Mousasi is No. 9 and Belfort No. 5and where they are in their respective careers, I think Mousasi has the most to gain here. It’s hard to believe, in fact, that 13 years and 39 bouts into his fighting life, he’s still just 31 years old.

At 4-1 in his last five fights, you get the feeling Mousasi is just waiting for his chance to break out in the UFC. Frankly, considering how things have gone at middleweight during the second half of this year, that time might be now.

With Luke Rockhold still rebounding from his surprising title loss to Bisping, Chris Weidman and Jacare Souza both easing back into action after injuries, and Yoel Romero returning from suspension, this seems like a pretty good time to strike. A convincing win over Belfort would put Mousasi in great position to make his move during 2017.

That said, things are still pretty murky. If Bisping triumphs over Hendo, he’ll likely face either the victor of UFC Fight Night 101’s Rockhold vs. Souza or UFC 205’s Weidman-Romero bout. That would leave a victorious Mousasi in a good spot to face the odd man out in a de facto title eliminator.

If Hendo wins and retires with the belt as he’s currently threatening to do, then the Rockhold-Souza winner and the Weidman-Romero winner likely fight for the vacant title. In that case, Mousasi might fight either loser or perhaps Bisping, again in a title eliminator.

So either way this shakes out, Mousasi might be sitting pretty if he defeats Belfort.

What about the Young Dinosaur, though, Mike? What does he stand to gain if he can blitz Mousasi with one of his trademark early striking flurries?    

    

Chiappetta: This is a much more difficult question to answer than it should be. A win over Mousasi would be a meaningful win, but frankly, it’s only going to get Belfort as far as his popularity and usefulness to the UFC will take him. 

Historically, he has been a key building block for the UFC in Brazil. He’s headlined or co-headlined six events there since the start of 2012, and you can imagine the UFC wants to get as much mileage out of him as possible before he retires or the wheels fall off.

Could a win get him a title shot? 

In the current era of money fights, it’d be easy for the UFC to spin things in that direction. As previously noted, he’s got wins over Bisping, Henderson and Rockhold. But if Jacare can win next month, he’ll have a strong case, as would the winner of the Weidman-Romero match.

In some ways, it may come down to the UFC schedule. If the promotion has a Brazil event and it needs a headline act, would it be a shocker to see it go to Belfort? Not really. Then again, it may realize it’s time to turn the page and give Jacare a chance to headline in his home country, which is something he’s never done under the UFC banner.

I guess this takes us to the part where we debate the actual outcome. I find it interesting and somewhat surprising that according to Odds Shark, Mousasi is a -300 favorite despite being lower in the rankings of the two.

The key on his end is to stifle Belfort’s early aggression by crowding him, removing his space and sapping him of his explosion. Mousasi is a clever striker who capitalizes on mistakes, and if Belfort tires, Mousasi is more than capable of taking over and even putting him away.

Here’s an interesting stat: Belfort hasn’t been to a decision in over nine years. Mousasi doesn’t necessarily want to take it that deep, but as the younger, fresher fighter, a longer fight will trend in his favor. The fact that he’s wanted this fight so long also serves as motivation for bringing the best out of Mousasi. All things considered, I think the betting line is right on.

How do you see it playing out, Chad?

    

Dundas: It’s pretty easy to like Mousasi here—and by utilizing the tried-and-true blueprint laid out by Randy Couture as early as UFC 15. He’ll weather Belfort’s early storm, drag him into deep water and either finish him late or pile up enough points to score a unanimous decision.

It’s a game plan tailor-made to suit Mousasi’s more cerebral, stick-and-move philosophy. It’s also a strategy that should be getting easier to employ as the 39-year-old Belfort becomes less and less dangerous, even early on in his fights.

The book on how to beat Belfort has been out there for years—since Couture first scripted it way back in 1997. Perhaps if it were 2013—when Belfort was tearing up the middleweight division to the tune of three consecutive head kick knockouts—we’d have reason to fear for Mousasi’s safety.

But since the UFC took Belfort’s testosterone replacement therapy toys away from him in February 2014, he hasn’t been the same guy. After sitting out all of that year, he returned looking somewhat less than his best. He’s gone 1-2 since then and has given every impression his career in on the wane.

A win over Mousasi might well prove otherwise, but give me the younger, better guy here. Mousasi wins and makes the next few months in the middleweight division even more interesting and competitive than we thought they were going to be.

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