They say that three times is a charm, although I’m not exactly sure who “they” are…
Perhaps they are gypsies? Or fortune tellers? Or Bas Rutten in the flesh?
I don’t really know, but I do know that the current UFC Lightweight Champion, Frankie “the Answer” Edgar, had better hope that luck is on his side on the 28th of May, when he is set to face-off for the third time in his professional MMA career (second time consecutively) against his old nemesis, Gray “the Bully” Maynard, at UFC 130 in Las Vegas.
After two previous meetings, it is apparent that Maynard holds the advantage against Edgar, despite fighting to what was a very exciting draw at UFC 125. The first encounter between these two warriors was approximately three years ago at UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Lauzon, which saw Maynard win via unanimous decision (hence the edge).
Edgar has yet to redeem that loss, and like any competitive athlete, I would have to think that it weighs heavily on his mind from time to time (yeah…that’s an understatement).
If Edgar plans to retain his belt for a third successive title defense, he had better hope for a better game plan than simply surviving the first round. As impressive as Edgar was for weathering the storm, I wouldn’t think that he would be so lucky a second time around.
If he finds himself in trouble again like the last time, I don’t see this fight going the full distance—a rarity for both fighters.
UFC 130 Main Card
Lightweight Championship bout: Frankie Edgar (c) vs. Gray Maynard
Light Heavyweight bout: Quinton Jackson vs. Matt Hamill
Heavyweight bout: Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson
Middleweight bout: Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago
Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne
Preliminary Card (Spike TV)
Welterweight bout: Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story
Bantamweight bout: Miguel Torres vs. Demetrious Johnson
Preliminary Card (Facebook?)
Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Tim Boetsch
Lightweight bout: Cody McKenzie vs. Bart Palaszewski
Bantamweight bout: Renan Barão vs. Cole Escovedo
Bantamweight bout: Chris Cariaso vs. Michael McDonald
*All fights are subject to change.
Frankie Edgar: The Breakdown
Edgar has a record of 13 wins, one loss and one draw. As previously stated, both of those blemishes came at the hands and tremendous wrestling prowess of Gray Maynard.
Edgar is on a five fight win streak, which includes back-to-back wins against former Lightweight Champion, BJ Penn.
Despite fighting to a draw in his last bout against Maynard, Edgar (along with Maynard) was awarded with “Fight of the Night” honours, and proved once and for all to fight fans everywhere that he absolutely deserves to wear the Lightweight crown.
After a massive beating in the first round that saw Edgar get knocked down on more than one occasion, he not only survived the round, but he also managed to battle back to take the advantage in the overall fight.
If you haven’t already, I strongly suggest you watch this fight.
It should also be noted that Edgar has gone the full distance in 10 out of his last 12 fights.
Gray Maynard: The Breakdown
Maynard is undefeated with a record of 10 wins, one draw and one no contest—no losses to date.
Maynard’s last eight fights have also all gone the full distance, which might suggest that both of these men have obvious difficulty in finishing fights.
The no contest happened in Maynard’s fight against Rob Emerson due to the fact that he knocked himself out, after slamming Emerson onto the mat.
If memory serves correctly, Maynard disputed the referee’s decision at the time, claiming that he was conscious throughout the ordeal, but after watching the replay several times, it was apparent that the “Bully” was out cold.
Despite having an undefeated professional record, Maynard did lose to Nate Diaz by way of guillotine choke in the semi-finals of The Ultimate Fighter 5, but I think it’s safe to say that he has evolved quite a bit as a fighter since then.
The Prediction
No guillotine chokes here.
After my brutal predictions for UFC 129, where I officially scored 0 out of 5 correct in the main card (what can I say? I love the underdog!), I’ll be looking to play it a little bit safer this time around—the problem with that is, with these two amazing competitors, just about anything can happen.
Well…almost anything.
Give Maynard credit—he almost knocked Edgar out in the first round on their last meeting. The operative word there is “almost.”
I don’t expect that Edgar will be approaching this fight the same way, and no doubt, the adjustments that he made in the later rounds taught him a thing or two about how to actually defeat Maynard.
I’m sticking with the trend on this one, and I’m choosing Frankie Edgar to win by decision.
I’ll save my crazy pick for the Frank Mir vs Roy Nelson match-up.
These are my opinions. If you don’t like them…I have others. Check them out at www.mrjamesryan.com
Also, check out my new book at www.desolatewarrior.com
Tonight (May 5) on HurtsBad Radio, Todd Jackson will be talking to Mr. James Ryan about the release of his new book Desolate Warrior. It’s a book about the triumphs and struggles of Will Ribiero. And speaking of triumphs and struggles, amputee MMA fighter, Matt Betzold, will also be on the show to talk about his contributions to the Desolate Warrior project, as well as, his commitment to the fight game.
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