The fight card at UFC 136 is stacked with exciting fights, but none carries as much gravitas or potential for an all-time mixed martial arts classic as the main event, featuring Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard.
Edgar will defend his claim to the UFC lightweight championship, if only by the slimmest of margins.
These two men are anything but strangers in the octagon, with two previous encounters on their records. Maynard “bullied” Edgar into a win by unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night back in April of 2008. Edgar “answered” back on New Year’s Day at UFC 125: Resolution with a rousing comeback to force a split decision with Maynard and retain the UFC Lightweight Championship belt as a result.
Granted, that draw did anything but resolve the lingering questions surrounding Edgar and Maynard, which brings us to this weekend’s festivities at the Toyota Center in Houston. Edgar has demonstrated vast improvement in the three-and-a-half years since suffering the first and only loss of his MMA career. No longer is Edgar quite so susceptible to Maynard’s menacing takedowns, thanks in large part to fancier footwork and a stronger stand-up game.
Edgar doesn’t have the sort of power to put Maynard out of his misery in one or two shots, but what he lacks in strength, he more than makes up for in conditioning, boxing skills and sheer determination. Maynard seemingly had Edgar beaten in their last bout, with a furious 97-strike rally right out of the gate. However, Edgar was able to withstand the early barrage and recover with some beautiful takedowns to pull even on the judges’ scorecards.
That being said, Maynard still owns the advantage in sheer brute force and devastating power. It’s seemingly to Maynard’s advantage to come out swinging, so to speak, as he lacks the stamina to outlast a scrappy, scrambling opponent like Edgar.
The difference in this bout will come down to which combatant can dictate the location of the action. If Edgar can funnel the fight to the center of the Octagon, he’ll be better able to exploit his advantage in speed, dexterity and escapability to wear out the more cumbersome Maynard.
However, if this one ends up against the cage, then the pendulum will swing squarely in Maynard’s favor. “The Bully” needs to be just that—a bully—to pound his opponent into submission. Anything short of that and Maynard will leave himself vulnerable and open to attack in the later rounds after exerting himself to little avail.
Neither fighter figures to claim a decisive edge in this one. As such, the difference between winning and losing could come down to a big takedown here or a heavy exchange there. All told, look for Edgar to escape the night with his title belt still fastened around his waist, however precariously, after narrowly outlasting his biggest nemesis.
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