On October 29th, the UFC’s welterweight division is front and center. With four of the top 10 welterweights in the world set to step into the octagon, there has never been more more division altering possibilities.
Could we see the end of a four-championship reign and the start of a brand new era of welterweight fighting? Could we see Carlos Condit capitalize on yet another Nick Diaz screw-up and shock the world? Could we see Nick Diaz prove himself, again, that he is a true threat to the welterweight throne?
So many possibilities, such little focus on the biggest question of them all.
For four years (five if we forget about Matt Serra) Georges St.Pierre has run through every challenger that has tried to dethrone him.
That long of a reign is almost unprecedented in the world of MMA where upsets are more likely to happen than any other sport. Stack on the combined total of 178 wins against 55 losses for his opponents (a win-loss ratio of 3.24:1), and GSP’s reign becomes even more impressive than that of his Middleweight counterpart Anderson Silva, although only slightly (combined opponent record of 219-70 for a 3.13:1 win-loss ratio).
However, in all eight fights of his current reign St.Pierre has been able to utilize his 76-inch reach to keep opponents at bay with an almost constant barrage of jabs. Shockingly, never before has St.Pierre had to defend his title against an opponent with a comparable reach.
At UFC 137 St.Pierre will defend his title against a man with the same 76 inch reach, the first time he has not had a reach advantage. It may be nitpicking, but just remember this. Chuck Liddell held the tile for two years and never fought a man with definitive KO power to match his. The first time he did, he lost the title.
Carlos Condit was originally slated to fight BJ Penn in a welterweight title eliminator. Fortunately for him Nick Diaz still doesn’t know how to “play the game” and was stripped of his opportunity to fight for the championship. Being that BJ has gotten more than his fair share of title opportunities in the past and former WEC champion Carlos Condit has no doubt earned a chance at UFC gold, we will now see Condit VS St.Pierre face of for welterweight supremacy.
As I previously mentioned, Condit sports an identical reach in comparison for GSP. In addition to that, Condit knows what its like to be in a five round fight. However, Condit has never actually gotten to that fifth round. St.Pierre has been there in five of his eight title fights during his current reign—including his last four consecutively. Fighters that have been there before will tell you, the fifth round is where champions are made.
Can Condit handle it if it gets that far?
Nick Diaz. Go ahead, let out your sigh of disappointment. Not since the disaster that has become Karo Parysian have MMA fans seen so much talent go to waste. It seems like every time Diaz is given a chance to flourish, he fails. It astonishing that a fighter that hasn’t lost cleanly, emphasis on “cleanly”, since 2006 isn’t considered the best in the world.
Twice in his career he’s managed to get himself pulled out of a championship fight. In 2009 he was stripped of a chance to fight for the Strikeforce welterweight championship but was pulled off the card for failing to show up for a pre-fight drug test.
Fast forward to 2011, Diaz is pulled out of a title fight for failing to appear at pre-fight pressers. For such a well-rounded fighter, it appears his only weakness he has is the ability to just show up.
Luckily, when Diaz was ousted from the title fight and Condit took his place, that left a certain MMA legend without a dance partner.
Insert Nick Diaz.
In what might be his last chance to prove to the world that he is a UFC championship caliber fighter, Nick is going to have to do a lot more than show up against BJ Penn. BJ is a former champion and knows what it takes to be champion. Great hands and great submissions, Nick Diaz is slated to fight a miniature version of himself, a version that has held UFC gold, unlike himself.
BJ Penn is a legend. No doubt about it. “The Prodigy” has held UFC gold in two different weight classes and has fought a plethora of great fighters. In his last fight he fought perennial top five welterweight Jon Fitch to a draw, an impressive but not outstanding feat. If not for a knockout win against fellow legend Matt Hughes, BJ Penn’s recent track record looks shaky at best. In what may very well be the last meaningful fight of his MMA career, BJ is in a must-win situation.
With a killer instinct that a certain current Welterweight champion lacks, BJ is still a very dangerous opponent for any man. His submissions are some of the best in the world, something he can attribute to his almost frightening flexibility, Penn can punch you into oblivion or make you tap for your life. However, the only man that has ever stopped Diaz is a doctor that told the referee to stop the fight. It seems as though BJ’s best chance of winning is by decision, something he’s only done three times in 25 fights.
Now that we’ve weighed the pro’s and con’s of each fighter in each fight, it’s time to address the elephant in the room. That elephants name is Anderson Silva. The current middleweight king’s name has been linked to the welterweight champion Georges St.Pierre for quite a while now. With the always growing list of fans that want to see what would be the biggest superfight in the history of mixed martial arts, it seems like Anderson Silva is as big a factor in who will be welterweight champion in 2012 as any current welterweight fighter.
Georges St.Pierre has already verbally agreed to the superfight as long as he has ample time to gain the necessary weight needed to make this fight happen in a healthy way. If the UFC opts to make this dream a reality, St.Pierre will have no choice but to drop the belt and make a permanent move to 185.
That being said, the only way he would have to drop the belt is if he actually has it. If Carlos Condit can pull off the upset, he would then fight the winner of BJ Penn and Nick Diaz. Lets look at all of the scenarios that could come out of UFC 137:
- GSP defeats Carlos Condit. BJ Penn defeats Nick Diaz. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva in lieu of a third fight with BJ Penn. Title Vacant. First ever UFC Welterweight Grand Prix to determine new champion.
- GSP defeats Carlos Condit. Nick Diaz defeats BJ Penn. GSP defeats Nick Diaz. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva. First ever UFC Welterweight Grand Prix to determine new champion.
- GSP defeats Carlos Condit. Nick Diaz defeats BJ Penn. Nick Diaz defeats GSP. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva. BJ Penn becomes welterweight gate-keeper. Nick Diaz is champion in 2012.
- Carlos Condit defeats GSP. BJ Penn defeats Nick Diaz. Condit defeats BJ Penn. Nick Diaz goes back to Strikeforce. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva. Condit is champion in 2012.
- Carlos Condit defeats GSP. BJ Penn defeats Nick Diaz. BJ Penn defeats Carlos Condit. BJ fights Jon Fitch in a rematch for Welterweight title in 2012. Nick Diaz goes back to Strikeforce. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva.
- Carlos Condit defeats GSP. Nick Diaz defeats BJ Penn. Carlos Condit defeats Nick Diaz. Carlos Condit is champion in 2012. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva. BJ Penn becomes welterweight gate-keeper.
- Carlos Condit defeats GSP. Nick Diaz defeats BJ Penn. Nick Diaz defeats Carlos Condit. GSP moves up to fight Anderson Silva. BJ Penn becomes welterweight gate-keeper. Nick Diaz is champion in 2012.
Has your head exploded yet? Those are seven possible outcomes of UFC 137.
Which one is the most likely? I won’t say because I simply don’t know. Nobody does. Only one thing is for sure, the UFC welterweight division is shaping up to have its biggest year ever in 2012, and the fans are the only ones that are guaranteed to win.
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