UFC 143 Main Card Predictions
Interim Welterweight Championship: Nick Diaz vs Carlos Condit
Not only is this the toughest test that Condit has ever faced, but this might be the toughest test that Nick Diaz has ever faced. Carlos Condit has improved his overall game from being a primarily submission ace when he first started in the WEC, to having excellent standup. We saw it in the Dan Hardy fight, when he TKO’d uber rising star Rory MacDonald, the Martin Kampmann fight, and beat the always tough as nails Dong Hyun Kim.
Equally as impressive has been Nick Diaz. After losing to a TKO against KJ Noons, Diaz hasn’t lost since winning 11 straight fights. A major point of contention is the competition level. Its not been subpar, but it hasn’t been top flight competition. However, the way Diaz has dominated this competition has been unbelieveably impressive. In his rematch against KJ Noons he absolutely owned every round. Diaz beat Penn into a bloody pulp like noone has ever done forcing him into retirement. The only time Nick Diaz has ever really been beat was in his 5th fight against Jeremy Jackson which he avenged later in the UFC. Even the losses Diaz has faced at the hands of the judges, they have been close. I thought that the Riggs fight he got robbed, the Diego Sanchez fight he clearly lost, but that fight taught him how important take down defense is to winning a fight. Diaz went on a famous rant regarding takedowns after that fight. The Sean Sherk fight was also razor thin close, Sherk won on being busier. These two losses have changed Diaz as a fighter. Takedown defense currently is superb. Also the punching output of Diaz now compared to the fight back then is night and day. Currently Diaz outstrikes his opponents something like 4 to 1.
This fight is going to be tremendous as Condit and Diaz are both big welterweights. However, I think in the end, Diaz is likely to win. The odds should be very close on this fight. If you can find Diaz as an underdog, buy with both hands. My bet is placed with Diaz.
Heavyweight Roy Nelson vs Fabricio Werdum
Roy Nelson has KO power, but its rarely been demonstrated in the UFC. Both Roy Nelson and Werdum are Brazilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelts and although Nelson is good on the ground, this also has rarely been demonstrated. Werdum is in another league in terms of jiu jitsu. His accolades in BJJ competition is rather legendary. Recently, Werdum finished Fedor via triangle choke.
With Werdum favored slightly I like that play and placing my cash with Werdum.
Welterweight Josh Koscheck vs Mike Pierce
This might be one of Koscheck’s toughest fights. Pierce is a bull and one of my favorite fighters. Koscheck leaves himself open for strikes when he goes for his haymakers. The best aspect of Koscheck is his wrestling, but what really works for him is his aggression. There are only a few fighters in MMA that are as aggressive and as fast as he is. Kos likes to swarm opponents early and finish early. He won’t be able to do that with Pierce as he hasn’t been finished ever.
Pierce has had two notable losses on his record. John Fitch, Koscheck’s teammate, and Johnny Hendricks. While Koscheck has lost to GSP twice, and Thiago Alves as well as Paulo Thiago.
Between Koscheck’s agression, wildness, and ability to take fights more often to the distance than not (barring recent KO’s), Mike Pierce has the sustainability to go the distance with Koscheck.
The best bet here might be the fight going past the 2.5 round mark. Moreover, I also like Mike Pierce here at a near 2-1 underdog.
Bantamweight Renan Barão vs Scott Jorgensen
Pass
Middleweight Ed Herman vs Clifford Starks
Pass
Preliminary card (FX)
Featherweight: Dustin Poirier vs Max Holloway
Pass
Welterweight: Matthew Riddle vs Henry Martinez
Pass
Bantamweight: Alex Caceres vs Edwin Figueroa
Pass
Welterweight: Matt Brown vs Chris Cope
Pass
Preliminary card (Facebook)
Welterweight bout Dan Stittgen vs Stephen Thompson
Pass
Middleweight Rafael Natal vs Michael Kuiper
Pass