UFC 163 marks the promotion’s return to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for the first time since Anderson Silva finished Stephan Bonnar at UFC 153 in Oct. 2012.
Headlined by a featherweight title fight between Jose Aldo and Chan Sung Jung, the card showcases plenty of Brazilian talent including the evening’s co-main event, which will see Lyoto Machida take on Phil Davis in light heavyweight action.
The return of one-time middleweight title challenger Thales Leites against British up-and-comer Tom Watson also highlights the card, as both fighters will look to show that they deserve a step up in competition.
Here’s a look at the full card for the Aug. 3 card and a closer look at the biggest fights of the night.
All statistics via FightMetric unless otherwise noted.
Thales Leites vs. Tom Watson
Leites wins if…
He can get Watson to the ground.
The jiu-jitsu black belt is a submission ace and owns a clear advantage on the ground if he can drag his opponent to the mat. He owns 13 submission victories in his career, while two of Watson’s three career losses have come by way of submission.
Watson defends just 44 percent of takedowns, so Leites isn’t fighting a wrestling savant.
Watson wins if…
He turns it into a striking battle.
This is obvious given Leites’ ability on the ground, but sprawl-and-brawl is Watson’s best game plan. He lands 53 percent of his strikes and averages nearly five strikes landed per minute. Meanwhile, Leites is just a 34 percent striker.
Watson has knocked out eight opponents while never tasting the canvas, so he has to like his odds when these two exchange leather.
Verdict
Leites by decision. He’s the same guy who once beat Nate Marquardt by decision, and Watson is the same guy who was taken down by Stanislav Nedkov and Brad Tavares five times apiece.
Lyoto Machida vs. Phil Davis
Machida wins if…
He finds Davis’ chin and maintains a safe distance.
Machida is a masterful striker and one of the best at moving in and out of exchanges without getting hit. However, the stats say that Davis is a difficult target to hit as well. The former Penn State wrestler avoids 74 percent of the strikes thrown his way and only absorbs 1.08 strikes per minute.
Davis is a good athlete who will make Machida work to stay out of range.
Davis wins if…
He can control position.
Machida’s game relies on spacing and avoiding takedowns. “The Dragon” has a takedown defense percentage of 79 percent, so expecting “Mr. Wonderful” to take the former champion down is unrealistic. If he can drag the fight’s pace to a standstill by forcing the clinch, he can wear Machida down, though.
If Davis can manage to dominate position in the clinch and score a few takedowns, he’s going to give the judges a tough fight to call.
Verdict
Davis pulls off the upset with a decision victory. Machida is a massive favorite because he’s a proven contender, while Davis fell flat in his only marquee test against Rashad Evans, but this is a much different fight.
Machida won a split decision against Dan Henderson after landing just 27 strikes though three rounds. This one could be just as ugly, but Davis’ game plan should include enough grappling to see him outpoint The Dragon.
Jose Aldo vs. Chan Sung Jung
Jose Aldo wins if…
He leg kicks Chan Sung Jung to oblivion.
No one has better leg kicks than Aldo, and they are the perfect weapon against a fighter like Jung. “The Korean Zombie” is all forward all the time and loves to put on the pressure. A few of Aldo’s swift yet powerful kicks to the legs should slow that pursuit down rather quickly.
Chan Sung Jung wins if…
He has the best fight of his life and overwhelms Aldo.
Jung is a huge underdog despite having three finishes in three UFC fights. That’s more of a testament to Aldo’s dominance as champion than Jung’s skills as a fighter. He’s an exciting guy to watch and brings the pressure to every opponent he faces.
The problem with his pressure is that he doesn’t have the best defense. He walks through a ton of strikes to land a staggering 4.61 strikes per minute. However, that strategy is not advisable against Aldo.
The Brazilian kingpin has 13 knockout victories in his career.
Verdict
Aldo by TKO in the fourth round. The champion continues his reign, but not before the Zombie gives us an exciting moment or two. Few fighters have approached the champion as fearlessly as Jung will on Saturday night.
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