As is the case with every major UFC card, there are questions to be answered throughout the main attractions of the UFC 167 event. The answers will come in the Octagon, but hints at the outcome could very well lie in the numbers.
After studying the tendencies of the fighters in the top three fights on Saturday’s card from Las Vegas, here’s a statistical preview of the bouts.
Let’s start with the Robbie Lawler-Rory MacDonald welterweight clash.
“Ruthless” Robbie Lawler vs. Rory “Ares” MacDonald
Analysis
Length is going to be an issue in this fight. MacDonald is only one inch taller than Lawler, but his 2.5″ edge in reach is going to be the primary reason MacDonald keeps Lawler at bay. Ares’ jab is one of his best weapons, but it only sets up the rest of his well-balanced attack and defense.
Lawler is no slouch, and he’s been on a hot streak. He has scored a KO in over 85 percent of his wins, which includes stoppage victories in his last two fights. His wrestling is decent, but the Ruthless one wants to deck his opponents.
MacDonald was stopped in his only loss to Carlos “The Natural Born Killer” Condit, but Condit is nearly as calculated as Ares is. The Natural Born Killer doesn’t land a high percentage of his strikes, but he’s busier and longer. Condit lands 3.24 strikes per minute compared to 2.5 for Lawler. He wants to land the bomb, but that’s going to be tough against MacDonald.
It is going to take a longer, more steady striker to derail MacDonald—if anyone will again. It will be very difficult for Lawler to find MacDonald. Instead, he will be picked apart and cut up by MacDonald’s jab.
Don’t rule out a potential win by submission with MacDonald either. He’s made his opponent tap out six times in his career. He could choose to take Lawler down to stay away from his puncher’s chance.
My official prediction is a unanimous-decision win for MacDonald, but if I could make a secondary prognostication, it would be a submission win for MacDonald by rear-naked choke.
Rashad “Suga” Evans vs. Chael Sonnen
Analysis
As the numbers show, neither man is terribly accurate as a striker. Though he doesn’t land, Evans has proven in the past that he brings some power when he does connect. He knocked Chuck Liddell out with one shot in 2008 and landed a good shot on Jon “Bones” Jones in 2012.
Sonnen is a very ineffective striker. Only 25 percent of the wins in his career have come by KO, and he’s never stopped anyone with strikes in the UFC.
If the fight stays standing, Evans has a clear advantage because of his power and speed. That said, with two world-class wrestlers, it is hard to imagine this fight not going to the ground at some point. If it does become a wrestling match, who has the edge?
I’d have to give it to Sonnen. Though Evans is shorter and has a lower center of gravity, Sonnen’s takedowns are extremely powerful, and he’s been the most accurate in this sense. With both fighters holding an advantage in the two major areas of combat, who wins?
Evans’ disadvantage on the ground is not as glaring as Sonnen’s deficiency in the stand-up game. Suga won’t be outclassed by anyone as a wrestler. He can hold his own there, and he should easily out-box Sonnen.
This should end in a unanimous-decision win for Evans based on an edge in striking and overall athleticism.
UFC Welterweight Champion: Georges St-Pierre vs. Johny “Bigg Rigg” Hendricks
Analysis
What happens when a big-time puncher like Hendricks faces one of the most efficient and balanced fighters the sport has ever known? Bigg Rigg is probably the pound-for-pound hardest puncher in MMA. He only needs one shot to turn out just about anyone’s lights.
As you can see from the numbers, hitting GSP is not an easy thing to do. The champion does a great job keeping his chin tucked and he stays very low. His opponents also have to be wary of the counter takedown.
GSP is adept at catching his opponents mid-strike and powering into takedowns. It is this technique that is the primary reason GSP succeeds at 76 percent of his takedown attempts. Once he’s gained top position, even an experienced and accomplished wrestler like Hendricks is bound to find some issues.
If there is one flaw in Hendricks’ game it’s that he has somewhat abandoned his wrestling background. He is a two-time NCAA Division I champion, but he has fallen in love with his massive left hand.
That is enough against most opponents, but not GSP. The champion will avoid the big punch and dominate with his wrestling to retain his title.
All statistical references from FightMetric.com
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