UFC 182 is a card littered with evenly matched bouts. There’s a squash match tucked in the docket here and there, but for the most part, fans are going to be treated to some close matchups.
That’s assuming the odds truly tell the story. Looking at the 11 bouts slated for January 3 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, only three favorites have odds greater than -250, per Odds Shark.
Of course, the close odds mean forecasting these bouts is especially challenging. This card should be equal parts exciting and unpredictable. Here’s a look at the latest odds and with predictions for every bout:
Under-the-Radar Pick: Cody Garbrandt (+170)
If you’re looking for an underdog to back Saturday, UFC newcomer Cody Garbrandt is a strong candidate. The 23-year-old doesn’t have as many high-profile bouts as Marcus Brimage, but he does have the tools to spring the minor upset.
Training with Team Alpha Male, there are a lot of things to like about the rising prospect. His ground game is developing. He was recruited by Michigan State to wrestle coming out of high school, per MMAjunkie. But his strengths lie in his boxing.
No Love has accrued all five of his wins by knockout since turning pro.
But even more impressive than the heavy-handedness that Garbrandt brings to the Octagon is his approach in the stand-up department. Where you’ll see most prospects with knockout power swinging for the fences and overwhelming lower competition, Garbrandt shows a real knack for setting up his assault.
Even though all but one of his five wins have come in the first round, Garbrandt has shown the patience to know when to pounce on an opponent. That kind of awareness should come in handy when making his first appearance on the grandest stage of them all.
Brimage is a game opponent. The 29-year-old will be in the Octagon for the seventh time and is coming off a knockout win against Jumabieke Tuerxun. But in a fight that is likely to turn into a kickboxing match, it’s not a bad move to go with the fighter who has done nothing but rack up knockouts on his way to the big show.
Co-Main Event Prediction: Donald Cerrone (-190)
Outside of the main event, no fight on the UFC 182 card has as much impact on its division’s title picture as the co-main bout between Donald Cerrone and Myles Jury.
Cerrone and Jury are both on winning streaks. Cerrone‘s was extended to five with his last win against Eddie Alvarez. Jury’s whole career has been a winning streak. He enters the bout with a perfect 15-0 record.
Here’s a look at how the two match up statistically (via FightMetric).
Looking at the statistics, a few things pop out. First, Jury’s strike defense is outstanding. A survey of some of the top fighters in the sport reveals that the ability to avoid getting hit is paramount to succeeding at the highest level.
However, unlike those who dominate the sport, Jury isn’t as efficient as the opponents he’s adept at avoiding. He lands just 37 percent of his strikes.
This hasn’t hurt him yet. He’s still managed to win seven of his bouts by knockout. But Cerrone isn’t Takanori Gomi. He’s one of the best kickboxers in the division.
The other notable Jury stat is his ability to get opponents to the ground. His 3.18 takedowns per 15 minutes is a testament to his wrestling ability. But that might not be the best route to go against Cowboy. He’s earned 15 of his 25 career wins via submission.
Jury is still bound to do some big things in his career. It would just appear that Cerrone currently has the edge wherever the fight may go.
Main Event Prediction: Jon Jones (-170)
The fact that the line is so close is a testament to how highly anticipated this bout is. According to numbers compiled by BestFightOdds, this is the closest line for a Jon Jones fight since the dynamo became champion against Shogun Rua.
That’s because much like Liam Neeson in Taken, Daniel Cormier has a particular set of skills, ones that, on paper, could stretch the champion farther than any challenger who has come before him. Cormier pairs an Olympic-caliber wrestling background with quick hands and relentless aggression.
It’s all enough to make this an intriguing bout, but it might not be enough to get his hand raised.
That’s ultimately because when Jones raises his hand, it nearly touches the ceiling. For everything that Cormier can do inside the Octagon, magically growing longer limbs to take away Jones’ natural reach advantage is not one of them.
DC should be able to close the distance at times. It will all come down to timing and footwork, but it can be done. However, the question is whether he can do it consistently enough to get inside and cause enough damage to win the fight.
The answer could be yes, but it’s more likely that Jones will once again demonstrate the creative striking that makes him so difficult to dethrone. A Cormier win would not be all together shocking, but it still feels like a five-round decision for the champion is the most likely scenario here.
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