If you ask the casual MMA fan who the top three pound-for-pound fighters in MMA are, Demetrious Johnson’s name probably won’t come up.
The list is guaranteed to have Jon Jones. Ronda Rousey and Cain Velasquez are not only switching to Metro but likely on the list as well. Perhaps even Jose Aldo—or as he’s more known these days—”the guy fighting Conor McGregor.”
Chris Weidman could also be on the list. After all, he’s the one who took down Anderson Silva.
But the one they call Mighty Mouse isn’t likely to be found. Yet if you look at the pound-for-pound rankings on UFC.com as of April 20, he’ll be there at No. 3.
After seven consecutive wins in the Octagon, Johnson is finally starting to get the recognition he deserves in the rankings. At UFC 186, he’ll attempt to prove he’s earned the accolades he receives against Kyoji Horiguchi.
Horiguchi has put together a nice winning streak since coming into the UFC. He’s a perfect 4-0 since joining the organization, and at only 24 years old, his potential as a contender is intriguing. MMA Infographics breaks down the records of both fighters:
So is the young Horiguchi prepared to spring an upset on the titan of his division? Here’s a look at how he matches up with the champion along with an early prediction for just how the fight will shake out Saturday.
When: Saturday, April 25
Start Time: Fight Pass prelims at 7 p.m. ET (subscription required); Fox Sports 1 prelims at 8 p.m. ET; main card pay-per-view at 10 p.m. ET
Where: Bell Centre, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
Live Stream: UFC.tv
Fight Preview
Looking at the odds for this bout, Vegas isn’t too confident in Horiguchi‘s ability to find a way to beat the champion. Odds Shark pegs the challenger as a 6-1 underdog for Saturday’s main event.
In actuality, the odds seem even steeper than that. Looking at the way these two match up, Horiguchi only has one path to victory. With nine of his 15 wins coming by way of knockout or TKO, he stands a puncher’s chance against Johnson.
Here’s how the two stack up statistically, via FightMetric:
The problem for Horiguchi is that Johnson has seen powerful strikers before. As Brian Hemminger of MMAOddsBreaker points out, Joseph Benavidez and John Dodson were dangerous challengers in their own right:
The difference between Horiguchi and those other two strikers might be in his style, though. The Norifumi Yamamoto-trained fighter doesn’t always have the most orthodox angles and footwork, meaning he can sneak in and out of striking range without relying on being quicker than Johnson on the feet.
The body kick that Horiguchi landed early in his bout against Jon Delos Reyes is a great example:
The greatest challenge for the Horiguchi won’t be keeping up on the feet, though. It’s going to be getting it to stay on the feet. When Johnson has sensed a talent disparity in the wrestling department, he’s often taken advantage. He took down John Moraga 12 times and Dodson five, according to FightMetric.
Where Johnson chooses to take this fight ultimately becomes the storyline to watch as this bout unfolds.
Prediction
This fight bears some resemblance to the aforementioned Johnson vs. Moraga matchup. Moraga came into the bout with Johnson as a promising prospect who had made a good impression in his few UFC bouts but ultimately had very little to offer the champion.
What ensued was a five-round beatdown that ended with Johnson getting a submission victory.
Ultimately, this feels like it’s a classic case of too much, too soon for the young Horiguchi. With his unique style and knockout power, the potential is there for him to be an excellent contender in the flyweight division, perhaps champion.
However, as Patrick Wyman of Sherdog notes, this just feels like poor timing for the challenger:
Horiguchi himself disagrees, of course. “This is the perfect time for me to get a title shot,” Horiguchi said via Mike Bohn of MMAjunkie. “As usual, I’m going to work very hard in training and have a hard training camp before the fight. I am going for the victory and going for the title.”
If Horiguchi‘s karate style can throw Johnson’s rhythm off early, things could get surprisingly more interesting.
However, the more likely scenario is one in which Johnson sets the tone early. Rather than stand and exchange strikes with the younger fighter looking to make a name for himself, Johnson will look to turn the fight into a wrestling match.
If he’s successful doing that early on, things will get ugly quick for Horiguchi. Johnson has found a way to finish three of his last four opponents, and that’s a trend that should continue here.
Prediction: Johnson via second-Round TKO
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