With all due respect to Kyoji Horiguchi, UFC flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson should have no major issues retaining his title Saturday night at UFC 186 in Montreal. Horiguchi has good speed and excellent striking power, but Johnson’s quickness is on another level, and his ground game is impeccable.
Johnson could elect to stand with Horiguchi to make the fight more interesting, but the path of least resistance would be to take the challenger to the mat.
Johnson’s technique is vastly superior on the ground, and he should earn a submission win against a quality challenger.
The main event feels relatively easy to predict. Take a look at the odds and predictions for the rest of the card in the table below, which features some tough calls.
Kaufman Will Make it Three in a Row
It’s hard to beat an opponent three times in a row, but I believe Sarah Kaufman will do just that when she faces Alexis “Ally-Gator” Davis on Saturday. Kaufman has beaten Davis in every promotion they’ve been in together except the UFC. They will meet in the big promotion for the first time Saturday.
In their first meeting in 2007, Kaufman stopped Davis with strikes. The second bout was closer, but Kaufman came out on top via majority decision in 2012.
Davis has improved her striking since their last meeting, but she’s also coming off a ninth-month layoff after being embarrassed in 16 seconds by Ronda Rousey at UFC 175 in July 2014.
Kaufman had her chance against Rousey while the two were in Strikeforce, but she also fell short against the undefeated champion. That said, Kaufman’s only losses have come to legendary opponents. Her other defeat was at the hands of Marloes Coenen, another pioneer in the sport for women.
Based on Kaufman’s resume, she could arguably call herself the second-best female fighter in the sport. She clearly has Davis’ number, and after the confidence-shattering loss Davis suffered at the hands of Rousey and the time she spent away from the Octagon, this isn’t a setup that screams, “Take Ally-Gator.”
Dollaway Will Dog Bisping
Michael “The Count” Bisping is perhaps one of the biggest underachievers in the UFC. He has alternated wins and losses over his last seven fights and repeatedly missed opportunities to earn a title shot.
According to his win-one-lose-one trend, he should be in line for a victory over C.B. “The Doberman” Dollaway on Saturday, but we should expect the opposite result. Stylistically, this matchup favors Dollaway, and the 31-year-old former All-American wrestler from Arizona State University knows it.
Speaking with Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda, Dollaway talked about why he believes he has the advantage over Bisping:
His weakest point (wrestling) is my strongest point. And I’ve improved so much on what used to be a weak point for me — stand-up striking. I’ve had immense improvement there. I feel I can stand with him, and I feel I can still knock him out. I don’t think he has that option. If things go bad for him on the feet, it is not like he’s going to bust out takedowns.
Can Bisping stop Dollaway from taking him down? The answer is no. Tim Kennedy, a less accomplished wrestler, secured five of 11 takedowns against Bisping when they met in April 2014, per FightMetric. If Kennedy was able to plant Bisping that frequently, Dollaway should find some success.
Obviously, Bisping has worked on takedown defense heading into the fight, but at 36 years old, how much can he add to his bag of tricks? Not enough to make a difference in this one. Dollaway will win via unanimous decision.
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