Fabricio Werdum is going to upset Cain Velasquez. There, I said it.
It’s a concept I’ve been pondering for the last week, but didn’t have the nerve to say out loud. The two UFC heavyweight champions of some sort will meet on Saturday in Mexico at UFC 188 to definitively determine who’s the baddest man on the planet.
Velasquez is the recognized heavyweight champion and perhaps the scariest fighter in any weight class in the sport. He has great knockout power, good grappling and world-famous cardio for a man his size. Those are all excellent skills to have, but styles make fights, and Werdum’s approach and skill set are a combination Velasquez hasn’t seen before.
When it comes to Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioners, you won’t find many who are on Werdum’s level—let alone superior. The 37-year-old Brazilian has submitted the likes of Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. In the world of mixed martial arts, those are epic accomplishments.
While Velasquez has faced other experienced Brazilian jiu-jitsu artists like Junior dos Santos and Antonio Silva, neither of them had as much in the toolbox as Werdum. Dos Santos prefers to stand and strike and Silva lacks Werdum’s athleticism and dexterity.
Werdum’s striking is also massively improved over the years. That was evidenced in his dismantling of Travis Browne in April 2014 and in his TKO win over Mark Hunt in November 2014 via flying knee. That victory won Werdum the interim UFC title and set up this meeting with Velasquez.
Werdum also sees Velasquez’s prolonged layoff as a factor. Per Kevin Iole of Yahoo Sports, Werdum said:
“I’ve gotten better and improved so much, and he hasn’t fought in two years. It’s going to be pretty hard for him.”
Per Odds Shark, Werdum is the biggest underdog on the card at 71-20 odds, but the prediction here is an upset win by second-round submission and a Performance of the Night bonus. Velasquez is always aggressive and that will likely be heightened as he fights in front of adoring fans in Mexico.
That aggression will put him in a compromising position on the ground against a fighter who excels at fighting off his back. Remember where you heard it first.
Performance of the Night – Henry Cejudo
So long as Henry Cejudo continues to make weight at 125 pounds, he’s on a collision course with flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson. The next obstacle for Cejudo to blast through will be the always tough and game Chico Camus.
Unlike any other flyweight in the sport, Cejudo has the power and technique to physically dominate any fighter in the weight class with his grappling. It will take a speedy and technically sound fighter to combat Cejudo‘s wrestling prowess and underrated punching power.
Unfortunately for Camus, his skills don’t fit the bill. Here’s what Patrick L. Stumberg of MMA Mania said about the matchup:
This is one of those fights where one guy is just flat-out superior to his opponent at everything. What does Camus do? Wrestle and strike from distance with speed. What does Cejudo do? That, only significantly better. He’s also got quite a bit more power than Camus on the feet.
This is as close to a guarantee as you’re likely to find on this card.
Cejudo is going to make a statement at Camus’ expense and vault himself into the top 5 of the division with a win. Look for a second-round TKO win and pure domination leading up to it.
Fight of the Night – Eddie Alvarez vs. Gilbert Melendez
Unless you’re looking at a fight like the one-round war between Browne and Andrei Arlovski at UFC 187, most bouts that win the award for best scrap of the night last a little while. They also usually feature two fighters willing to throw caution to the wind and bang.
The Eddie Alvarez vs. Gilbert Melendez bout would qualify in both areas.
Melendez hasn’t stopped a fighter since 2011 and Alvarez was last stopped in the same year. Both fighters are coming off losses to world-class opponents. Melendez was submitted by Anthony “Showtime” Pettis and Alvarez lost a unanimous decision in his UFC debut to Donald Cerrone.
Because of their recent defeats, there will be a sense of desperation in both men. Alvarez and Melendez came to the UFC with much fanfare after starring for Bellator and Strikeforce, respectively. To be honest, neither has lived up to the hype—though Alvarez has had just one bout with the promotion.
Both will want to be impressive.
Melendez has already participated in one classic bout back in 2013 against Diego Sanchez. Expect another memorable scrap from El Nino on Saturday night in Mexico.
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