After nearly 15 months, Jon Jones makes his long-awaited, much-anticipated return to the Octagon at UFC 197 in a match against Ovince Saint Preux for the interim light heavyweight title.
The main intrigue for Saturday night’s main event will be seeing how Jones looks after a prolonged absence due to various legal problems. The card did lose some steam, though, when Jones’ original opponent, light heavyweight champ Daniel Cormier, had to withdraw due to a leg injury.
Saint Preux is a capable fighter, though he’s not nearly at the championship level. A win over Jones would certainly propel him into a different stratosphere after a lackluster 3-2 run in his last five fights.
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Johnson vs. Cejudo
Before Jones steps back into the cage, Demetrious Johnson will be defending his flyweight title against Henry Cejudo.
Even though Johnson doesn’t get the mainstream respect he deserves, there’s no denying that Mighty Mouse is one of the premier fighters in mixed martial arts. He’s on a nine-fight winning streak, has lost just once in 13 career UFC fights and is the only flyweight champion in UFC history.
Cejudo, on the other hand, comes into Saturday’s title fight as a relative unknown. He’s only got 10 career fights under his belt, four in UFC, and has been elevated into the main-event scene quickly.
Speaking to Damon Martin of Fox Sports, Cejudo certainly carries the confidence of a fighter who is ready for his close-up:
I believe I’m fresh. I believe I have the pedigree and I’ve been in these other situations before and that’s all there is to it. I’m ready. I just hope he’s ready and I hope I get the best Demetrious Johnson the world could ask for because I want to fight the best at their best. I think I’m going to be fighting him at his best.
Cejudo‘s history certainly gives him the right formula to keep up with the lightning-quick Johnson. He’s never been taken down in his career, lands nearly four significant strikes per minute and defends over 74 percent of significant strikes thrown at him.
The problem for Cejudo, at least to this point, is he’s virtually limited himself to being a stand-up fighter. He’s got four career knockouts, but they came in the first four fights of his career in the World Fighting Federation and Gladiator Challenge.
It’s strange that Cejudo has taken this tack, because he won a gold medal at the 2008 Olympics in freestyle wrestling.
Jeff Wagenheim of Sports Illustrated brought up Cejudo‘s wrestling history, noting it doesn’t always translate into mixed martial arts success:
This is not wrestling, though. In MMA, the less decorated wrestler often gets the best of an opponent on the mat. Georges St-Pierre, for instance, regularly had his way with foes whose resumes suggested they would be superior grapplers. Just last year, Jon Jones had a pretty good night coming to grips with Olympic wrestler Daniel Cormier.
Johnson has proven himself to be a chameleon in the cage, being able to stand and trade punches or get into a mat wrestling match. He’s a more accurate striker than Cejudo, landing nearly 53 percent of significant strike attempts, and averages 3.6 takedowns per fight.
A more diverse skill set inside the Octagon is often the deciding factor in a matchup like this. Cejudo could end up pulling a Holly Holm, just using his power to stun the champion, but Johnson is rarely as over-aggressive as Ronda Rousey tends to be.
Prediction: Johnson wins via submission (third round)
Jones vs. Saint Preux
All eyes will be on Jones in the main event. If he defeats Saint Preux, it’s what was supposed to happen and UFC can work on scheduling a bout with Cormier at some point this summer.
If Jones loses to Saint Preux, however, questions about ring rust and his dedication to the sport will inevitably crop up.
There has been some evidence that Jones no longer feels invincible after everything that’s happened to him, per Martin:
The moment I realized I had to change, honestly the big moment for me was the night Anthony Johnson and (Cormier) fought for my light heavyweight championship and I saw DC walk away with it. In my mind, I beat both of those guys. I was at home with my wife and I thought to myself ‘here I am, I’m possibly one of the best fighters to ever play this sport and I’m here at my house without a belt, without a sponsor, just completely wasting talent.’
Assuming Jones has his life and mind in order, UFC will be much better for it. He’s one of the most dynamic athletes the sport has ever seen and was doing things in the light heavyweight division that no one was capable of.
Jones has never lost a legitimate fight in his career. The one blemish on his career was in 2009 when the referee disqualified him for throwing some questionable elbows at the head of Matt Hamill. He’s beaten everyone UFC has throw at him in the 205-pound division, including Cormier in his last match at UFC 182.
Saint Preux is almost an afterthought in this match, though it’s not his fault. He was thrown into this situation because of the injury to Cormier. It’s a credit to him that he took the match on short notice, especially since he has nothing to lose.
Sometimes the fighter with nothing to lose is more dangerous because they can take risks, but Saint Preux really isn’t that kind of mixed martial artist. He’s got nine knockouts among his 19 wins, though he’s not a knockout artist with 2.67 significant strikes landed per minute.
Jones is the superior athlete who needs to make an impression in his return fight. This is his stage and Saint Preux is merely a player in it.
Prediction: Jones wins via TKO (first round)
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