Not one, but two championship fights headline UFC 199. Luke Rockhold will defend his middleweight championship against Michael Bisping in the main event Saturday night in Los Angeles, while Dominick Cruz is taking on Urijah Faber in the co-main.
The evening’s headliner isn’t exactly the fight fans were waiting for. A neck injury forced Chris Weidman out of the bout with Rockhold. Instead, the UFC made another rematch, as The Count stepped in to take the fight on short notice fresh off an emotional win over Anderson Silva back in February.
Almost 10 years since making his UFC debut as The Ultimate Fighter 3 champion, Bisping will get his first crack at the championship belt.
Unfortunately for him, his latest odds from Odds Shark don’t paint a promising picture. Here’s a look at how the two fighters stack up heading into their rematch:
Tickets: ScoreBig.com
Pre-Weigh-In Hype
In terms of buildup, both fighters have done what they can on short notice to ramp up interest. The back-and-forth banter will probably be the most competitive thing about the bout.
Rockhold has finished his last five opponents and made his intentions known to pick up another decisive win in his first title defense.
“I’m gonna knock him out in the first round, and he’s gonna have nothing to say,” Rockhold told Ariel Helwani on The MMA Hour (via Marc Raimondi of MMA Fighting). “Whether he had a full camp, half a camp or a week’s notice. It doesn’t matter. I’m gonna get my knockout. I’m gonna put him away. I’m gonna show who’s the better fighter, who’s the champ.”
A first-round finish would be like beating a high score for Rockhold. He’s already played the Bisping level of this game before. He submitted the Brit in the second round of their first encounter.
The challenger talked about Rockhold‘s power in this clip from UFC Embedded from the UFC’s Twitter:
Bisping isn’t letting the fact that he’s stepping in on short notice weigh him down, either. He’s spinning it as a positive as he comes into a fight as a massive underdog with nothing to lose and no time to overthink things, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports:
Listen, all the pressure is on Luke. It’s very freeing mentally. I’m just going to go out there and do my thing. I have no pressure. I know I’m expected to lose. The world is expecting me to lose this fight, and that’s so nice. That feels so good. I haven’t had 10 weeks of evaluating footage and going through the emotional roller coasters. Feeling confident and then feeling negative and then feeling confident again and then feeling negative again. I haven’t got time for that (expletive). I’m very, very confident.
Confidence can go a long way in the cage. Before the Nate Diaz fight at UFC 196, Conor McGregor was a perfect example of how far a fighter can go with irrational amounts of self-confidence.
Consequently, Weidman was also a textbook example of that before running into Rockhold. Sometimes a bigger and better opponent just wins, regardless of how confident a fighter is.
That bears remembering when predicting just what’s going to happen when these two step into the Octagon again.
Prediction
Rockhold is scary good. What’s even more scary is that he seems to be improving as he’s hitting what should be his peak. At 31 years old, he’s fighting better than he ever has.
As good as the champion looked when dismantling Bisping two years ago, he looks even better now.
Bisping, however, looks like a fighter who is being rewarded for coming through for the company for a decade. The middleweight has always been a draw for the organization but never quite did enough to earn a title shot.
That isn’t to say he doesn’t deserve a lifetime achievement award. Coming off of his win over what’s left of Silva, the timing will never be better for him.
But the wins he has put together since losing to Rockhold do nothing to show that he’ll pose any greater a threat this time around. Rockhold can negate everything Bisping does well.
The Count is usually great at sticking opponents at the end of his jab and kicks to maintain distance. That’s hard to do when he’s giving up five inches of reach to the champ.
With his last seven wins coming in the third round or later, Bisping usually relies on outworking his opponents and having the better cardio. Taking the fight on short notice likely eliminates that advantage as well.
Rockhold might not be as technically sound or as polished as Bisping, but that’s not likely to matter. Sometimes a fighter is just bigger, better and more athletic. That will be the case on Saturday night. The biggest form of competition will be the race against the clock to see if Rockhold can secure victory faster than the last time to pick up the win.
Prediction: Rockhold by first-round TKO
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