UFC 200 has already become one of the most bizarre fight cards in the history of organization without anyone even stepping into the cage.
Jon Jones lost his spot as the headliner due to a “potential Anti-Doping Policy violation,” per an official release from the UFC. Brock Lesnar decided to come back after a four-and-a-half year absence from the sport. Jose Aldo and Cain Velasquez somehow managed to stay healthy enough to compete on a big card (barring any last-second injuries).
There’s no Ronda Rousey. There’s no Conor McGregor. The headlining fight is a women’s bantamweight title fight that features Miesha Tate and Amanda Nunes.
Yet the card is still utterly fascinating and deep. There are nine former or current UFC champions that will compete. Things will get crazy. Despite the chaotic—and at times, disappointing—road it took to get here, UFC 200 should still deliver.
Here’s a look at the complete pay-per-view card with predictions, along with the latest odds from Odds Shark.
Storylines to Watch
Is Cain Velasquez Still Championship Material?
Plenty of attention will be paid to Lesnar at UFC 200, but Velasquez is the true X-factor in the heavyweight division right now.
At one point, it appeared Velasquez was primed to be the dominant champion the heavyweight division has never really had. Now, he’s making just his second appearance since 2013. His last fight came over a year ago when he was dominated by Fabricio Werdum at UFC 188.
Health has always been an issue for Velasquez. He’s fought just six times since 2010. For the first time, it looked like all those health issues caught up to him in his performance against Werdum.
However, the man who once ran right through Lesnar believes he’s made the necessary adjustments to remain fit to fight over the long haul.
“For me, it’s about returning to fight,” he said, per Rodolfo Roman of Fox Sports Latino. “That’s what I’m here to do. My past fights were pushed [back] because of injuries. I know how to stay healthy now.”
What kind of shape Velasquez is in will be put to the test against Travis Browne. The 6’7″ Hawaiian will hold a six-inch height advantage over the 6’1″ Velasquez. In order for him to win he’ll have to return to his vintage style of pressuring and forcing Browne into the clinch.
There’s a good chance we could see him do just that. But the version of Velasquez we saw against Werdum is concerning, and his slow return to the Octagon might just be another sign that things are slowing down for the former champ.
Browne’s a live underdog kicking off the card.
Who Will Await Conor McGregor‘s Return to Featherweight?
The featherweight division might be all about McGregor these days, but the battle to find out who will be waiting for him if/when he returns to 145 will be one of the most interesting fights at UFC 200.
Frankie Edgar and Aldo are both former champions looking to get gold around their waist again. Going for the interim title, one of them will technically succeed in that endeavor.
The difference between this interim belt and most interim titles is that there’s some real mystery as to whether McGregor is going to come back down to the division. He’s expressed his intentions to return, but the cut to 145 is ostensibly a tough one for him.
Should he succeed in his fight at 170 pounds, a return to the division might not make sense for him.
So who rules the division if the Irishman can’t come back?
That’s likely determined in this fight. Edgar and Aldo might not be what they were when Aldo first beat Edgar by decision in 2013, but they’re still two of the most skilled fighters in the division.
While acknowledging the aging that’s taken place, Patrick Wyman of Bleacher Report envisions a similar outcome to the first fight:
It’s unclear, however, how the basic dynamic of the matchup has changed.
Aldo hasn’t shown any cracks in his takedown defense, removing one of Edgar’s best weapons and rendering the improvements to his top game largely irrelevant. This will still be a striking matchup, and while Edgar is a bit more efficient and perhaps a bit more powerful, he hasn’t upped the volume to the point where he’s certain to outscore Aldo.
It’s hard to disagree with Wyman‘s logic. Aldo’s loss to McGregor was in large part due to a miscalculation on his part and McGregor‘s excellent counter-punching skills and power. Edgar doesn’t have the power that the champion possesses and Aldo should still have enough to take advantage of that.
Can Miesha Tate Avoid Holly Holm‘s Fate?
When Holly Holm beat Rousey, she not only earned herself a championship, she put herself in position for a huge payday with a rematch against the Rowdy one.
Waiting around wasn’t Holm‘s style, though. She wanted a fight while she waited for the former champion to come back. She got just what she asked for against Tate, but the risk didn’t work out the way she had hoped.
Now, Tate is in a similar position.
With the title in her hands, a third fight against Rousey has more allure. A rematch against Holm for the strap would also make sense. Even a bout against the newest star to join the UFC division in Cris “Cyborg” Justino would be a huge draw.
Instead, Tate meets a new challenger in Nunes in the main event.
Nunes is the worst kind of risk for Tate right now. She’s absolutely dangerous, but not nearly as recognized as the other three women on her radar.
Nunes has yet to have her breakout performance. Her biggest wins have come against Sara McMann and Valentina Shevchenko, yet nine of her 12 wins coming in the first round says she’s a dangerous striker for a fighter who is known for getting off to somewhat slow starts.
Although it’s hard to read too much into weigh-ins, Tate needed the towel to weigh in at 134.5 pounds and barely made it to the weigh-ins on time, per Shaheen Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting, so there’s reason to believe a slow start is again in the cards at UFC 200:
Even so, Tate has proved to be durable time and time again in her UFC career. Cat Zingano is the only one in the UFC to beat her by TKO, and she couldn’t do it until the third round with some knees that might have put down a small elephant.
Nunes might put Tate in some trouble, but Tate should survive and go on to dominate the latter rounds as she defends her belt and waits for whatever major fight the UFC wants to put together.
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