The UFC 202 rematch on Saturday between Nate Diaz and Conor McGregor delivered in every possible way.
The action was frenetic, with fans rarely having the opportunity to leave the edge of their seats. The drama was high, as a stoppage felt imminent on numerous moments. And of course, the hits were hard, with both men bloodied and battered after enduring 25 minutes of battle.
In the end, McGregor walked away the victor via majority decision, with the scorecards reading 48-47, 47-47 and 48-47.
After such an exciting and important fight, it’s worth taking a look back and identifying the highs, lows and deciding factors that resulted in the outcome. So what went right for McGregor? And what went wrong for Diaz? Read on and find out.
What Happened in the First Fight?
Any discussion of UFC 202’s main event starts with the first fight between Diaz and McGregor at UFC 196 and requires some analysis on what contributed to the massive momentum swings within.
McGregor‘s bread and butter in the UFC to this point has been his big left hand. He had finished nearly every opponent he had faced before Diaz with a devastating left straight, and while the punch didn’t stagger Diaz the way it did Jose Aldo, Dustin Poirier and the like, it most certainly landed and most certainly hurt.
In the early goings of the fight, McGregor made good use of that left, tagging Diaz repeatedly with his lunging straight and cutting the cage off to set up Roy Nelson-style overhands. As Diaz began adjusting to those strikes, McGregor started opening up with hard uppercuts.
On top of all that, he landed numerous solid leg kicks on Diaz, particularly front kicks to the knee and oblique. Those could have added up, had the fight lasted longer.
The biggest problem for McGregor in the first fight was his inability to cope with Diaz‘s lead hand. Only a small percentage of fighters have a worthwhile jab, and even fewer have anything outside that.
Diaz managed to keep McGregor honest, even as he was being out-landed, by catching him as he entered or clipping him as he exited. After McGregor wore himself out and his guard dropped, a long jab-cross was the beginning of the end.
There were three big questions entering the rematch. First, would McGregor cope with Diaz‘s lead hand? Second, was McGregor‘s cardio dump an anomaly? And third, would Diaz force the fight to the ground and leverage his grappling superiority, or would he be content again in keeping it standing?
What Went Right for McGregor at UFC 202?
McGregor looked excellent in the early goings of the UFC 202 main event, and Diaz was wearing the results early. The Irishman’s left hand was as effective as ever but with that effectiveness came a newly disciplined approach.
Despite his success to this point, McGregor has had a well-established bad habit of leaping into opponents. During his days on the Irish MMA circuit and in his first UFC bouts, McGregor did brilliant work of utilizing his reach against opponents, staying at a manageable distance, exploding into a straight left and then slipping back to range.
Starting with his fight against Poirier, though, McGregor became progressively more willing to absorb shots and more willing to fall into the clinch, negating his long reach. That wasn’t the case at UFC 202, as McGregor made a point of staying at a comfortable range with Diaz and delivering measured, effective strikes.
Despite that disciplined approach, McGregor was still winded by the end of the second round and absorbed a number of strikes in the final minute. Still, McGregor‘s smarter approach early paid off late, as he managed to keep up with Diaz in the championship rounds.
What Went Wrong for Diaz?
Any critique of Diaz‘s performance at UFC 202 needs to start with pointing out one fact: Diaz easily could have won the decision. And even if he didn’t outright win, the fight easily could have been a draw. If the fight had been contested in a state with a less traditional (and more Diaz-friendly) commission, McGregor could be coming off back-to-back losses right now.
All that said, the biggest hiccup for Diaz was that his cardio didn’t seem to be up to its usual snuff.
His gas tank was good, yes, but both Nate and his brother Nick have long been two of the most well-conditioned athletes in MMA. Don’t forget, Diaz laid 153 hands on Michael Johnson not all that long ago without even breathing heavily, and he owns the record for most significant strikes landed (238) in a single fight.
“Pretty good” is well below the Diaz standard.
Some of that was because of McGregor, sure. The featherweight champ landed 68 significant strikes on Diaz by the end of the second round (including three knockdowns, via FightMetric.com) and that’s going to suck some of the wind out of anyone’s sails in a 25-minute fight. Some of that, however, likely came from the training injuries Diaz discussed after the fight.
The statistics reflect that cardio trouble as well. While Diaz kept a relatively steady pace in terms of his significant-strike output through all five rounds, his significant-strike totals at distance (that is, not counting strikes in the clinch and on the ground) dipped in each round. He landed 25 in the first, 24 in the second, 18, 17 and then just four in the fifth round.
Again, this was a solid performance by Diaz on the whole, and he easily could have gone 2-0 on McGregor. With just a bit more kindling on the fire, however, he may have sealed up what could have been a fight-winning round.
What Could Change in a Rubber Match?
McGregor and Diaz both had their share of impressive moments in the fight. McGregor deserves credit not just for demanding the rematch with Diaz but for competing at 170 pounds when it wasn’t the ideal weight class for him. Diaz, meanwhile, showed off the pure grittiness that has long made him a darling of fans.
With the Diaz vs. McGregor record now standing at 1-1, it’s worth discussing what either man could do to take the rubber match.
For McGregor, the biggest possible improvement would be increasing his cardio. While Diaz remains a tricky stylistic matchup for him, McGregor proved that he has the toolbox to get the win. The only thing he really needs to do to hedge his bets is improve his staying power so the championship rounds don’t end up being such a tightrope walk.
Diaz, meanwhile, has one small tweak to make (in addition to getting back into triathlon shape): create more opportunities for clinch striking. Round 3 was Diaz‘s best, and it’s not a coincidence that he landed 31 up-close strikes on McGregor.
With some modest improvements to his cage-cutting skills and wrestling, Diaz could extend his dominant position time and, in turn, set himself up for more successful exchanges. And heck, while he’s there, he might even get more takedowns!
Of course, despite the fact that both men expressed their desire for a rubber match, there’s no guarantee that it will happen anytime soon, plus they could be different fighters when their paths cross again. Hopefully when that time comes, they can deliver a fight as amazing as the one they put together at UFC 202.
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