If there isn’t a ton of action at UFC 203 on Saturday, that will be the upset of the night.
The main card isn’t loaded to the extent of UFC 202, but it does feature a range of high-quality and intriguing bouts that will be well worth the price of admission.
The pay-per-view card kicks off with an important women’s strawweight bout between Joanne Calderwood and Jessica Andrade, features the debut of former professional wrestler CM Punk and ends with a heavyweight championship fight where someone is likely going down to close out the night.
Here’s a look at the complete pay-per-view schedule along with the latest odds from Odds Shark and predictions for each main card fight:
CM Punk vs. Mickey Gall
After nearly two years of waiting, the world will finally see if former WWE Superstar Punk can actually fight. The UFC signed the now-37-year-old back in December 2014, but injuries and the need to train in the basic skills of MMA have delayed his debut until now.
Standing across from Punk will be an unknown commodity in 24-year-old Mickey Gall. The New Jersey native is just 2-0 professionally, and both of his previous opponents have winless records.
Still, Gall has more experience than Punk, who says he will lean on his training from Duke Roufus and the quality fighters he works with.
“I’m going to do what I do, what my coaches have trained me to do,” Punk said, per Damon Martin of Fox Sports. “I train with Anthony Pettis, Eric Koch, Gerald Meerschaert, Mike ‘Biggie’ Rhodes, a litany of guys that are way better me, so they have been sharpening my skills for months and months and months so I’m ready for Mickey.”
Punk may have received great training in Milwaukee, but he’s still against the odds here.
Professional wrestling leads to plenty of wear and tear, and Punk has been through the wringer. The chance that he’s able to cobble together the requisite skills to win in the UFC is a long shot, and Gall is actually a talented fighter, albeit an unproven one.
It might take the younger fighter a while to get started. Losing to Punk would be embarrassing for him, but once Gall gets loose, it could get ugly quickly.
Prediction: Gall via second-round submission
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
The first time Fabricio Werdum and Travis Browne met, they were both on hot streaks and looking to contend for the title.
Browne seemed to be the next big thing in the heavyweight division, posting three straight knockout wins over Gabriel Gonzaga, Alistair Overeem and Josh Barnett. Werdum was in the midst of a three-fight win streak that turned into a title run.
Things have changed since then.
Werdum’s title reign turned out to be short-lived. Stipe Miocic put a counterpunch right on the chin of Vai Cavalo to dethrone the champion.
Meanwhile, Browne is just 2-2 in four fights since losing to Werdum. That’s a far cry from the man who once looked like the future heavyweight champion.
Browne is hoping that a difference in circumstances also leads to a different result. The first fight was not pretty for him, as Werdum cruised to an easy decision and taunted Browne numerous times.
Browne hasn’t forgotten that.
“Things happened in that fight that just never sat well with me,” Browne said, per Brett Okamoto of ESPN.com. “He came up to me afterward and tried saying, ‘Oh, it’s all part of putting on a fight.’ All that stuff he did, that kind of stuff doesn’t sit well with me. But that’s the great thing about this fight, is I get to have my redemption.”
Picking Browne in this case isn’t necessarily about believing that he is markedly improved of late. Cain Velasquez demolished him his last time out in July.
Instead, it is about questioning just how much Werdum has left. The former champion is now 39, and the drop-off for a fighter at that age can happen rapidly. He made a severe mental mistake against Miocic last time out, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see him do it again.
Prediction: Browne via third-round TKO
Stipe Miocic vs. Alistair Overeem
Whether Punk can actually fight might be the most interesting question of the night, but finding out just how long Miocic can hold onto his heavyweight belt is the most important one.
Miocic was an unlikely UFC champion. Coming off wins over Mark Hunt and Velasquez, Werdum seemed destined to hold onto the strap for a while. Instead, Miocic came through as an underdog to capture the title.
Now Miocic goes from an underdog to a favorite in front of his hometown Cleveland crowd. That’s a lot of pressure. Overeem, who just fought in front of a hometown crowd in Rotterdam, Netherlands, even acknowledged that fighting at home is a double-edged sword, per Tristen Critchfield of Sherdog:
Did I have an advantage in Holland? My last fight was in my country, in Rotterdam. It did give a little extra boost. I can’t deny that. It does give you a little bit more shivers. On the other hand there’s the extra appearances that you have to do. Everybody wants a piece of you. It’s kind of a little bit of a drag on you as well. It depends on how you handle it. I think with my 86 fights and 22 years of competing and training, I’ve been able to handle it very well
It’s been hard for champions to rule the heavyweight division. No one has made more than two title defenses consecutively, and even getting that first one can be a challenge.
Overeem’s confidence has to be at an all-time high. With knockout wins over Junior dos Santos and Andrei Arlovski included in his four-fight win streak, the Dutch kickboxer’s stock has never been higher.
By the same token, Miocic‘s confidence is also sky-high. Fighting in front of his home crowd with the belt around his waist can have that kind of effect.
The difference could be the fact that Miocic has been difficult to knock out in the past. He hasn’t been finished since 2012 and should be able to eat Overeem’s strikes long enough to land some of his own and put away the challenger.
Prediction: Miocic via third-round TKO
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