Tonight’s main event at UFC 219 between Cris Cyborg and Holly Holm has the makings of the most historic female UFC title fight in the organization’s history.
Holm vs. Ronda Rousey was a significant bout in terms of showcasing the evolution of women’s MMA, but it really doesn’t get much bigger than fighting Cyborg for a title.
Holm has the opportunity to become the first fighter in history to defeat both Rousey and Cyborg tonight, while Cyborg looks to defend her featherweight title for the first time inside of the Octagon. Stylistically, this fight can go any number of ways. In truth, this fight could end inside of 15 seconds or go the full 25 minutes.
Don’t blink, otherwise you might just miss a spectacular finish between two of the sport’s most dynamic and brutal strikers.
But before getting into any main-event predictions, let’s take a quick look at tonight’s prelim and main event cards with updated odds.
UFC 219 prelims (FS1, 8 p.m. ET)
Men’s light heavyweight: Khalil Rountree vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk
Men’s featherweight: Myles Jury (-260, bet $260 to win $100) vs. Rick Glenn (+200, bet $100 to win $200)
Men’s middleweight: Marvin Vettori (-225) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+175)
Men’s flyweight: Matheus Nicolau (-305) vs. Louis Smolka (+225)
UFC 219 main card (PPV, 10 p.m., ET)
Main event: Cris “Cyborg” Justino (-360) vs. Holly Holm (+270)
Co-main event: Khabib Nurmagomedov (-285) vs. Edson Barboza (+225)
Women’s Strawweight: Cynthia Calvillo (-260) vs. Carla Esparza (+200)
Men’s Welterweight: Carlos Condit (-165) vs. Neil Magny (+135)
Men’s Lightweight: Marc Diakiese (-185) vs. Dan Hooker (+150)
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Will Holly Holm make history or be history?
Holm has looked spectacular at times in her seven-fight UFC career, with highlight knockout victories over the likes of Rousey and Bethe Correia. However, she doesn’t have much else to hang her hat on.
Under closer examination, Holm has actually struggled inside of the Octagon. She has gone 1-3 in her last four fights, including an 0-2 record in title fights. While it can be argued that she actually beat Germaine de Randamie back at UFC 208 in the inaugural women’s featherweight fight, she still didn’t put on a convincing performance.
Before UFC 208, Holm had her worst fight inside of the Octagon, losing by unanimous decision against Valentina Shevchenko. Shevchenko exposed Holm on the feet with her muay thai, leaving Holm struggling to connect with any real velocity when it was her turn to strike back.
Even in Holm‘s last fight against Correia, she got off to a very slow start before executing a beautiful switch kick that sent Correia crashing to the canvas. She got the highlight victory, but it’s easy to forget how mediocre she looked before the finish came in the third round.
If Holm fights Cyborg like she did Correia, she won’t last more than five minutes, and that’s being generous.
Cyborg is the most tenacious fighter in women’s MMA. In her last fight against Tonya Evinger, Cyborg did something that not many could have seen coming: she slowed down.
Cyborg stood with Evinger and dominated the whole fight, putting her opponent away in third round via TKO (knees). Cyborg showed patience with her boxing, picking and choosing when to engage. That showed Cyborg’s evolution of her boxing skills, which is useful, as she wouldn’t necessarily be able to just put her head down and march forward against a striker like Holm.
In her last eight fights, Cyborg has eight wins, all by KO or TKO. But one aspect of her game that goes unnoticed is his her ability to fight on the ground with her Brazilian jiu-jitsu. While Cyborg has never submitted an opponent in her career, she is very capable of doing so. She is a black belt in BJJ and has held multiple world titles in the sport, so don’t be shocked to see her take this fight to the ground to eliminate any possibility of Holm winning.
Holm‘s ground game was exposed to an extent against Miesha Tate back in 2016 at UFC 196, when she was sent unconscious in the fifth round via a rear-naked choke. Holm has trained extensively in grappling and BJJ since then, but her background is in boxing, not MMA. And going up against a high-level grappler and BJJ practitioner in Cyborg takes a lot more than just a handful of years of training.
Due to Cyborg’s potential to bring this fight to the ground and stuff Holm‘s chances of winning, look for Holm to come out looking for an early knockout in the first round. She might connect on a few kicks to the body, but Cyborg will eventually get her timing down to evade Holm‘s flurry of strikes.
Cyborg will retain her featherweight title and solidify her reputation as the most dangerous woman on the plant while Holm drops to 4-4 in the UFC, with real questions surrounding her legacy as a mixed martial artist.
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