Stipe Miocic and Francis Ngannou is one of those rare matchups that become obvious overnight and are booked seemingly the next day.
When the fast-rising contender nearly knocked Alistair Overeem’s head clean off his body with an uppercut, a matchup with the current champion seemed like a no-brainer. Now, seven weeks later, it’s happening. The Cameroon native will have the opportunity to become the next UFC heavyweight champion.
Ngannou walks into the matchup as the favorite over the champion. Despite back-to-back title defenses for Miocic, Ngannou‘s six-straight stoppage victories in the UFC have him pegged as the next big thing in MMA.
It’s a fight that will either solidify one man as the most accomplished champion in the notoriously fickle division’s history or see a new star break through.
Before diving into keys for the biggest fights on the card, here’s a look at the complete card along with the latest odds and TV information.
Main Card (PPV at 10 p.m. ET)
- Stipe Miocic (c) (+145) vs. Francis Ngannou (-175) – heavyweight championship
- Daniel Cormier (c) (-335) vs. Volkan Oezdemir (+255) – light heavyweight championship
- Shane Burgos (-200) vs. Calvin Kattar (+140) – featherweight
- Gian Villante (-170) vs. Francimar Barroso (+140) – light heavyweight
- Thomas Almeida (-120) vs. Rob Font (-110) – bantamweight
Prelims (Fox Sports 1 at 8 p.m. ET)
- Kyle Bochniak (+115) vs. Brandon Davis (-145) – featherweight
- Abdul Razak Alhassan (-205) vs. Sabah Homasi (+165) – welterweight
- Dustin Ortiz (+110) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (-140) – flyweight
- Julio Arce (-150) vs. Dan Ige (+120) – featherweight
Prelims (UFC Fight Pass at 6:30 p.m. ET)
- Enrique Barzola (-225) vs. Matt Bessette (+175) – featherweight
- Islam Makhachev (-260) vs. Gelison Tibau (+200) – lightweight
Odds courtesy of OddsShark.
Miocic vs. Ngannou
The heavyweight title fight is centered on one thing—power.
Ngannou obviously has it. He’s devastated Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski in back-to-back fights with it, and its a major reason why he’s the favorite here. Ngannou doesn’t have to get much torque to deliver a knockout blow, so he’s dangerous at all times on the feet.
Miocic has developed some pop at this phase in his career, though. After picking up three of his first six wins in the Octagon by decision, Miocic is on a tear with five straight victories by either knockout or TKO.
But what will Miocic do to mitigate the power of Ngannou? Can he avoid it long enough to establish his own fight? The answer will come in how effective he can be at pressuring the challenger and pushing the pace.
The champion fights at a much higher pace than Ngannou at this point. He’ll look to apply pressure in both strikes and takedown attempts. According to FightMetric, Miocic lands 5.15 significant strikes per minutes, while Ngannou lands at a clip of 3.41 per minute.
The difference is in the takedowns. Ngannou hasn’t landed a single takedown in his UFC career, preferring to put his opponents on the ground with his strikes, while Miocic is a volume takedown artist, landing 2.10 takedowns per 15 minutes despite a middling 35 percent success rate.
What could be the result is a bout in which Miocic pushes the clinch and takedown attempts early to wear down the challenger and open up later.
It’s the kind of savvy fight the champion will have an advantage in while using his own power later in the fight to draw a finish.
Ngannou can bring that plan to a halt at any moment in the fight, but Miocic has shown remarkable durability in his career. He has the best chance to survive an onslaught from him than anybody and could put the hype train on hold.
Prediction: Miocic via third-round TKO
Cormier vs. Oezdemir
The co-main event brings a similar dynamic to the table of the heavyweight championship bout. Daniel Cormier is a pressure fighter who brings more of a wrestle-heavy approach than Miocic to the table, while Volkan Oezdemir is also a knockout threat, albeit not on the level of Ngannou.
The result is a matchup that comes down to distance. Cormier will look to eradicate it, while Oezdemir is going to need to find as many ways as he can to create it.
The Swiss fighter has a three-inch reach and height advantage that he’ll look to use in the way of leg kicks and a Muay Thai striking game.
Cormier‘s pressure doesn’t come in the form of a fast striking pace. He lands just 3.82 significant strikes per minute as compared to Oezdemir‘s 6.12. Instead, he applies constant pressure with his positioning, looking for the clinch and takedowns where he can beat up opponents and lay some heavy attrition as the fight wears on.
That means Oezdemir is going to have to do what he can with the moments that he has space. Given his last two wins have come within the first minute of the fight, another quick start could make this fight interesting before Cormier can smother him.
The early pace will be interesting to watch, as it’s probably the challenger’s best bet to spring an upset. The champion has seen this play out before, though.
Look for him to weather the early storm and come back to keep his title status secure.
Prediction: Cormier via fourth-round TKO
Burgos vs. Kattar
The preamble to the two title fights at the end of the night is a little lackluster, but the collision of featherweight prospects Shane Burgos and Calvin Kattar should serve as a good appetizer to the championship action.
The 26-year-old Burgos will put his perfect 10-0 record on the line against a slightly more experienced Kattar, who is coming off a decision win against Andre Fili in his UFC debut.
Burgos doesn’t have immense power, but he is an adept striker. He’s willing to set a high pace and force opponents into errors simply by being there. He does absorb 4.6 strikes per minute to the 6.0 that he lands, but he tends to get the better of the exchanges with his sharp counter-punching.
Kattar only has the one win in the UFC against Fili, but he demonstrated a well-rounded game in that time. He has strong boxing fundamentals along with the ability to mix in takedowns and wrestling where convenient. He scored two takedowns in the three-round bout against Fili.
This should be an interesting challenge for Burgos as Kattar can match his size. Both men are large for the featherweight division standing at 5’11” although Burgos still has a three-inch reach advantage.
These two are failry evenly matched from what we’ve seen out of the two so far, but they are both relatively unknown commodities. Burgos is probably getting a bump in the odds based on his standing in the organization and undefeated record, but Kattar will be a step up in competition.
This could be a spot for a slight upset as Kattar wins a tight decision based on his volume and willingness to be the aggressor behind his jab.
Prediction: Kattar via decision
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