The UFC will roll into Boston’s TD Garden on August 17 for its first fight card on the new Fox Sports 1 network. The event, UFC Fight Night 26, will feature six fights on the main card. Below are the odds and predictions for the fights on the featured portion of the event.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Chael Sonnen
The main event on August 17 will feature a light heavyweight bout between two fighters who have both gone 2-3 in their past five fights. Normally those records would not land the fighters a headlining bout, especially not the main event on a card as important as Fight Night 26.
However, we are talking about a former UFC light heavyweight champion in Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, and one of the UFC’s biggest draws, Chael Sonnen. Records are of little importance when it comes to these two fighters.
Rua (21-7) is one of the most aggressive and powerful strikers in the UFC. His last victory that didn’t end by way of knockout came in 2006. Since then, he has stopped Alistair Overeem, Mark Coleman, Chuck Liddell, Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin and Brandon Vera.
Sonnen (27-13-1) is an in-your-face wrestler who closes distance well, always looking to take the fight to the ground where he uses a smothering style. Sonnen is excellent at keeping his opponents on their backs and using a nonstop barrage of short strikes to keep them from mounting any type of offense.
If Rua can catch Sonnen coming in for the takedown early, in any round, he has a chance of winning this fight by knockout. I think that’s the only way Rua wins. If Sonnen can put Rua on his back at the start of each round, he will deliver a nonstop barrage of punches, forcing Rua to expend energy defending those strikes.
I don’t expect an exciting fight, but I do expect an active fight with Sonnen getting takedowns early and grinding out a unanimous decision win.
Odds: Sonnen favorite (-140) over Rua (+120)
Alistair Overeem vs. Travis Browne
I would suspect that most people are going to be picking the bout between Alistair Overeem and Travis Browne as the fight that will most likely end with one fighter being attended to by the cageside medical team.
Overeem (36-12-0-1) has 15 knockouts on his record and 19 submissions. Browne (14-1-1) has 10 knockouts and two submission victories. In total, the two fighters have gone the distance seven times in their 65 combined bouts.
Overeem joined the UFC with much fanfare, and he looked destined for a title shot after dispatching former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar in his debut fight with the promotion. However, a failed drug test delayed Overeem’s title-shot hopes.
When Overeem stepped back into the Octagon, he did so overflowing with confidence. He was absolutely sure that he would run over Antonio Silva and sign a contract for a title fight. Things didn’t work out that way, and Overeem was knocked out in the third round.
I suspect Overeem will be more focused and less cocky when he faces Browne in Boston. I’m not taking anything away from Browne, I just think the focus and power of Overeem is going to carry him to victory in this one.
Browne will hang in through the first round, but Overeem ends this one by TKO in the second stanza.
Odds: Overeem favorite (-190) over Browne (+165)
Urijah Faber vs. Yuri Alcantara
The knee-jerk reaction on the fight between Urijah Faber and Yuri Alcantara is going to be Faber easily takes the win. After all, Faber (28-6) is the No. 2-ranked bantamweight in the UFC and a former WEC champion, and Alcantara (28-4-0-1) is an unranked, under-the-radar fighter.
I don’t disagree that Faber will win; I do disagree that he will just breeze through Alcantara. Alcantara is probably best known for getting the shaft when Pedro Nobre put on an award-winning acting performance at UFC on FX 7 that resulted in the fight being declared a no-contest.
Alcantara is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu with a solid background in Muay Thai, but he is weak in the wrestling game, and that is going to lead to his downfall against Faber, who will look to get the takedown and work toward a submission.
I don’t think Faber gains the submission, but I do think he takes the decision.
Odds: Faber favorite (-280) over Alcantara (+240)
Matt Brown vs. Mike Pyle
An injury in early July knocked Thiago Alves from the UFC Fight Night 26 fight card. Alves’ departure opened the door for Mike Pyle to step in and face Matt Brown.
Brown (17-11) is on a five-fight winning streak heading into this fight, while Pyle (25-8-1) has won his past four bouts. Brown has ended four of those five by knockout, while Pyle has run up three knockouts in his four wins.
The winner of this bout will most likely earn a top-10 opponent in his next bout.
Brown is one of the more aggressive fighters in the welterweight division, and one tough customer. His described style of “technical brawler” is a pretty accurate description. Brown’s advantage is clearly in the striking game.
Pyle has the advantage in submissions. With that in mind, I fully expect Brown to keep this fight standing and put as much pressure as possible on Pyle from the start of the fight. Look for Brown to keep moving forward with aggressive striking, eventually breaking Pyle down for a second-round TKO win.
Odds: Brown favorite (-165) over Pyle (+125)
Uriah Hall vs. John Howard
Uriah Hall was originally booked to face Nick Ring in Boston, but Ring was pulled from the card and replaced by Josh Samman. In mid-July, Samman was removed from the card and in stepped John Howard, a fighter who was cut from the UFC in 2011 after three straight defeats.
Hall (7-3) will be under a great deal of scrutiny heading into this fight. He was the favorite to walk away the winner of The Ultimate Fighter 17, but a lackluster fight against Kelvin Gastelum in the final left him as the runner-up. After earning three memorable knockout victories on his way to the final, many viewed Hall’s loss as a disappointment.
Howard (20-8) rejoins the UFC after going 6-1 outside the promotion. Howard’s past two wins have come via first-round knockout.
Hall has a pronounced height and reach advantage in this bout, while Howard has experience on his side.
The losses that sent Howard packing from the UFC during his first run with the promotion were against strikers. Hall fits that bill, and I don’t see Howard getting passed Hall in this one either.
If Hall is on point, and can overcome whatever mental hurdles prevented him from delivering during the TUF final, he may get the knockout. I’m not sure he has done that, so I will play it a little safe here and pick Hall by decision.
Odds: Hall favorite (-530) over Howard (+350)
Joe Lauzon vs. Michael Johnson
The first fight on the main card in Boston will see Joe Lauzon take on Michael Johnson. Lauzon is coming off a bloody Fight of the Night loss to Jim Miller at UFC 155, while Johnson is in the midst of a two-fight losing streak.
Lauzon (22-8) has never gone the distance in victory, racking up four knockouts and 18 submissions. Of his eight losses, only two have gone the distance. So, aggression and looking for the finish is not something Lauzon shies away from when he fights. That fact can also be evidenced in his 12 Fight Night bonus awards.
This is a big step up in competition for Johnson, who lost to Myles Jury and Reza Madadi in his past two fights. Johnson has shown that his striking has progressed over the course of his UFC tenure, but I just don’t see him having what it takes to get passed a veteran like Lauzon.
Two things in this fight will inspire Lauzon. First, he will be fighting in front of a hometown crowd, and he will be looking to become the all-time leader in UFC Fight Night bonuses if he can win just one post-fight award on August 17.
Look for Lauzon to put his name in the running for Submission of the Night when he forces Johnson to tap out in the second round of this bout.
Odds: Lauzon favorite (-265) over Johnson (+185)
Odds via 5Dimes.
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