It’s going to be a UFC-heavy weekend. A night after UFC Fight Night 55 takes place in Australia, the 56th version of the series will get underway in Uberlandia, Brazil. Local legend Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will tangle with Ovince Saint Preux in an important light heavyweight battle.
Originally, Shogun was set to face Jimi Manuwa, but a broken foot forced the latter out. Saint Preux agreed to take his place for the bout.
Both men are coming off losses and trying to remain in the top 10 among light heavyweights. Rua is ranked ninth, while OSP is 10th, per UFC.com. Saint Preux saw his five-fight win streak come to an end at the hands of Ryan Bader in August.
Bader won a unanimous decision as he used his wrestling prowess to take OSP off his feet and control the fight on the ground.
Rua lost the rematch between him and Dan Henderson via vicious TKO in March. It was only the second time in Rua‘s career that he was stopped by strikes. Though he’s just 32 years old, there’s major tread on his tires.
He’s dropped three of his last four fights, and he’s been in countless wars. Retirement should be on his mind if he were to lose to OSP on Saturday. Fighting in front of his home crowd could provide a spark, but the question is: Will it be enough to push him to a victory?
Here’s the viewing information, the entire card and predictions on each bout. Just beneath the table is a closer look at OSP vs. Shogun, as well as more insight into the predictions for two other main card fights.
Alan Jouban Will Hand Warlley Alves His First Loss
Alves‘ future in the UFC is bright, but I don’t see him shining on Saturday night against Jouban. After winning The Ultimate Fighter Brazil 3 middleweight tournament, Alves is expected to make a splash in the organization.
He recently decided not to compete at 185 pounds, instead opting to go at it in the welterweight division. Per Guilherme Cruz of MMA Fighting, Alves said this during a post-fight press conference after his submission victory over Marcio Alexandre in May: “These guys are too big. I’m too skinny, so I’ll stay in my division. I will move down and who knows, maybe I’ll be able to fight for the title in five or six years.”
It was a nice debut for Alves, but it’s good he has patience. Alves is an explosive grappler with good technique and excellent submissions, but he’s not prepared to take down a striker with the skills and power Jouban possesses.
In his last bout, Jouban decimated the very tough Seth Baczynski with one shot. Jouban displayed a chin and resolve in his debut, and he learned a bit about being overexuberant. Expect to see him more poised and calculated in this fight.
Alves won’t be able to get the fight to the ground, and that will spell trouble for him. Jouban is the more powerful striker, and he’ll outland and stun Alves en route to a unanimous-decision victory.
Uncle Creepy Is Too Fast for Hands of Stone
The man who looks like a heavily tatted Vaudeville character brings an exceptionally high level of striking and speed into the cage. Ian “Uncle Creepy” McCall is truly one of the best flyweights in the world. He’s battled champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson twice. He earned a draw in the first encounter and lost a unanimous decision in a competitive rematch.
His biggest asset is his speed. He’ll use plenty of that against the powerful John “Hands of Stone” Lineker.
Heavy hands are what Lineker will look to use to put McCall’s lights out. Half of his 24 wins have come by KO, but landing will be the major issue. Per FightMetric, McCall defends 66 percent of the strikes fired at him. Lineker has been much easier to hit, as he has only avoided 58 percent of his opponents’ strikes.
McCall doesn’t pack the punch that Lineker does, but he’s quick and crafty enough to outwork him. McCall should win a unanimous decision based on more effective striking.
OSP Will Humble Shogun
The end of this fight probably won’t be pretty at all. Stylistically, it has all the makings of a fight that will end in a brutal and sudden KO.
Let’s face it, Shogun doesn’t want to grapple. He’s a brawler who has an 86 percent KO rate in his UFC career, per UFC.com. OSP is equally eager to trade strikes with opponents. Despite showing his submission prowess in recent wins over Ryan Jimmo and Nikita Krylov, OSP‘s best attributes are related to his striking.
The fight should be explosive but disappointing for fans of the legendary Brazilian.
OSP is bigger, quicker and more explosive at this point in Rua‘s career. With a two-inch height advantage, a four-inch edge in reach and quicker and faster legs and feet, OSP will vanquish Rua.
Follow Brian Mazique on Twitter. I dig boxing and MMA.
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