UFC Fight Night 69 emanates from Berlin this Saturday, and the main card is going to deliver some high-octane action for fight fans.
The original main event was scheduled to be Alexander Gustafsson vs. Glover Teixeira, but an injury forced Gustafsson off the card. This left the UFC in a position of searching for a new main event. They called upon their newly minted European champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk to defend her title.
Opposite the strawweight champion will be Jessica Penne.
Penne, former Invicta FC atomweight champion, defeated Randa Markos by split decision in her official UFC debut. After just one close win she is getting a shot at gold. Will she hoist a championship in a higher weight class? It’s a tall order she has been given.
Three more bouts are booked for the main card of the event. We will take a look at the main card action and discuss the value on the betting lines. Let’s not waste any time and get right into the main card for Saturday’s afternoon action.
Nick Hein (-170) vs. Lukasz Sajewski (+140)
Sajewski will make his UFC debut with a perfect professional record of 13-0. The 24-year-old has seven submissions to his credit and holds a decision win over Marcin Held. He is a legitimate prospect the UFC has picked up. Hein will have his work cut out for him in Germany.
Hein started his UFC career with a solid showing against Drew Dober, but he dropped his second outing against James Vick.
Hein is on home turf, and he has an excellent judo game. This will make it difficult for Sajewski to find success with his submissions. Sajewski will be forced to win the stand-up exchanges in order to take the fight. I don’t think he will be able to do that for three rounds. Hein has an advantage at this stage in their careers, and it will show.
I also like Hein at the current odds. I don’t think he will get a stoppage, but he will stymie Sakewski for 15 minutes en route to a decision win.
Prediction: Hein defeats Sajewski by decision
The Play: Start with a solid play on Hein
Peter Sobotta (-275) vs. Steve Kennedy (+215)
Kennedy makes his UFC debut on a seven-fight win streak. He takes on Sobotta, who won his UFC debut last May against Pawel Pawlak.
Kennedy won four of his seven recent bouts via submission, but that will play in favor of Sobotta. I am not too impressed by Kennedy, and his record doesn’t have a signature win. Sobotta hasn’t lost since his first UFC run, when he went 0-3.
Sobotta has improved too much, and it will show. He will finish Kennedy with a submission of his own. I don’t expect this fight to be too competitive. And the odds are worth a small play on Sobotta, but it clearly won’t have a huge return.
Prediction: Sobotta defeats Kennedy via submission
The Play: A small play on Sobotta
Dennis Siver (-185) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+150)
The co-main event of UFC Fight Night 69 is an underrated featherweight scrap. Two crafty veterans with clashing styles.
To say Siver has been inconsistent recently would be an understatement. He is 2-2 with one no-contest in his last five outings. His most notable win at featherweight was in his 145-pound debut against Diego Nunes. Every time he has stepped up, he has failed.
Kawajiri is certainly not the fighter he once was, but he has a good style to defeat Siver. However, his style also leaves big holes for Siver to exploit with his dynamic strikes.
If Kawajiri can avoid the big punch or kick, he will win. I don’t believe Siver can keep Kawajiri off of him for 15 minutes. Kawajiri’s grappling and pressure will prevent Siver from getting off first. He will be reduced to searching for the KO, and that will make him predictable.
This should be a good fight, but it won’t have a big finish.
Prediction: Kawajiri defeats Siver by decision
The Play: Take a shot on Kawajiri
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-700) vs. Jessica Penne (+450)
Penne, ranked No. 3 in the 115-pound division, gets her shot at UFC gold in the main event. Penne has won back-to-back fights, but only one has come at 115 pounds. The submission specialist is a big underdog in this fight.
Jedrzejczyk had a quick rise from obscurity. She was not obscure because of a lack of talent, but she was not in a premiere fighting organization. Her striking credentials were not lauded until a Cage Warriors bout against Rosi Sexton. Her performance against Sexton caught the eye of Sean Shelby, and the UFC came calling.
In her debut, Jedrzejczyk pummeled Juliana Lima with her incredible striking. It put Jedrzejczyk on the map of just about everyone. Jedrzejczyk followed that up with a narrow win over Claudia Gadelha to earn her title shot. And in that title fight she brutalized Carla Esparza. The string of wins made her an MMA darling.
The odds for this fight reflect that, but they are also a bit inflated. This is a tricky fight for Jedrzejczyk. Penne’s frame is built for 115 pounds, and her submission style is an excellent foil for Jedrzejczyk. It is not out of the realm of possibility for her to submit the champion. Jedrzejczyk is not a Ronda Rousey-level dominant champion.
With that said, I feel more comfortable with Jedrzejczyk. Penne is still developing her striking. She may be able to utilize her jab a bit, but Jedrzejczyk will walk through her punches. She is far too technical standing to be concerned with Penne’s striking. It will make her takedown attempts more predictable. Penne may have to pull guard in order to get this fight to the canvas.
This fight has come a little too soon for Penne, but it could serve as a good learning experience for what she needs to address for a rematch. Jedrzejczyk will wear her down before getting a TKO finish in the fourth.
Prediction: Jedrzejczyk defeats Penne by TKO in the fourth round
The Play: Take a small risk on Penne at these odds
All odds provided by OddsShark.com.
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