What happens when a Dragon and a Soldier of God meet in an Octagon?
We’ll find out on Saturday night from Hollywood, Florida when Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida locks horns with Yoel “Soldier of God” Romero in a pivotal middleweight scrap in the main event at UFC Fight Night 70. Also on the card is a welterweight clash that could be stacked with action. Santiago “Gente Boa” Ponzinibbio takes on the revitalized Lorenz “The Monsoon” Larkin in the co-main event.
Here’s how you can watch the card and a table of predictions for each bout:
When: Saturday, June 27 at 8 p.m. ET
Where: Seminole Hard Rock Hotel Casino in Hollywood, Florida
TV: Fox Sports 2 and Fox Sports 1
Tickets: The event is sold out, but tickets can become available at ScoreBig.com
The Main Event
Machida is a beloved performer and legend of the sport, but Romero figures to be the heavy fan favorite. The fight will take place in Hollywood, but nearby Miami is the Cuban-born Romero’s residence and adopted home. He will be looking to make the city, which is infused with Cuban culture, proud.
Romero talks about his connections to Florida in the video from the UFC below:
After battling injuries that forced him out of a potentially tantalizing scrap against Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza at UFC on Fox 15, Romero is ready to make his return to the Octagon.
The former silver medalist in the 2000 Olympics has a mixed martial arts record of 9-1. The 38-year-old Romero is a perfect 5-0 in the UFC with his last win coming over Tim Kennedy back in September 2014. Romero finished Kennedy via TKO, but the win was not without controversy. After dominating most of the fight, Romero was rocked by a hard right hand from Kennedy just before the end of the second round.
Romero barely survived the frame and his corner appeared to use some questionable stalling tactics between rounds to allow their fighter more time to recuperate. He ultimately had enough wherewithal in the final round to again put the rugged Kennedy in trouble and stop him via punches.
That incident stained what was otherwise an impressive performance. Romero wants to reestablish his momentum with a win over one of the most recognizable names and gifted fighters in the history of the UFC.
Machida may be at a crossroads in his career. He’s coming off a one-sided loss to Luke Rockhold in his last fight in April. A win wouldn’t get him a shot at Chris Weidman‘s middleweight belt immediately because he’s already had a shot less than a year ago, but it would keep him in line for a rematch somewhere down the line.
Should Weidman lose his next fight, Machida‘s path to another shot at the belt would be a little shorter.
If he loses, he’ll fall so far to the back of the line, one would have to wonder if he has enough longevity to ever reach the mountaintop again. Because he’s had 28 professional fights—and more importantly six losses—Machida‘s 37 is older than Romero’s 38. If a title is still his main motivation to compete, he’d have to seriously consider if it’s worth continuing to fight.
There are so many top-notch middleweights, there’s no telling when Machida would get another shot at the title if he loses. Thankfully for him, he won’t have to worry about that scenario. While Machida can’t match Romero in raw power or in wrestling prowess, his takedown defense is stellar. For his career, he’s stuffed 76 percent of the takedowns attempted against him.
When you consider the level of wrestlers he’s faced in his career: C.B. Dollaway, Chris Weidman, Phil Davis, Dan Henderson and Rashad Evans, just to name a few, that number is really impressive. Even if Romero gets Machida down, The Dragon can be difficult to submit when he’s on the ground. That’s what makes the way Rockhold manhandled him all the more impressive. While an unfortunate slip is what initially put Machida in peril against Rockhold, the latter had to be skilled enough to keep his opponent in the precarious position.
When it comes to technical prowess on the ground and depth of skills, Romero is no Rockhold. Machida will keep this fight standing the majority of the time and that’s where he’ll earn the victory. Romero is extremely strong and he possesses one-strike KO ability. You can see that in his devastating KO win over Clifford Starks in the Cuban’s UFC debut:
Machida, however, has one of the most diverse striking games in UFC history and Romero has been known to have a few defensive lapses. That’s what got him caught against Kennedy and in his loss to Rafael Cavalcante when Romero was in Strikeforce. Machida wins this one by TKO on ground strikes that are set up by a head kick.
And the legend continues to add to his highlight reel.
The Co-Main Event
Larkin looked to be on the verge of being cut after three-straight losses at middleweight, but he breathed new life in his career when he dropped to 170 pounds and stopped John Howard in his last fight in January.
Like Romero, Larkin wants to keep the momentum going with another win. Ponzinibbio is 2-1 in his UFC career and he’s a guy who likes to bang. While he’s a rugged and powerful striker, he won’t have the quickness or boxing ability to get the best of Larkin.
At 185 pounds, Larkin‘s hand speed and punching accuracy were his best attributes. In his career, he lands 45 percent of his strikes compared to just 31 for Ponzinibbio. In his welterweight debut, that number rose to 58 percent in a KO win that earned him a Performance of the Night Bonus.
Larkin may be in line for another 50 grand against Ponzinibbio. The Brazilian isn’t hard to hit as evidenced by the fact that he absorbs 4.05 strikes per minute. Look for Larkin to take advantage of his speed and score a second-round TKO to run his winning streak to two.
Truck Trying to Rebound
Eddie “Truck” Gordon has lost his last two fights and he has the most to lose of any fighter on Saturday’s card. Machida could go to the back of the line with a loss and face some tough questions about his career, but Gordon has never been to the front of the line.
He’s not a shoo-in for the Hall of Fame like Machida. In fact, if things continue to go as they have in his last two fights, The Ultimate Fighter Season 19 winner is going to be considered a bust.
What’s the real issue? It appears to be weight discipline. Per Thomas Gerbasi of UFC.com, Gordon said before he made a recent change to his lifestyle, he’d have to lose huge amounts of weight before every fight.
Gerbasi writes:
“Gordon would sign a fight contract and look at dropping 40 to 50 pounds just to be able to fight. That’s not including fight strategy, techniques, or anything else related to his opponent. That’s just weight loss.”
That’s clearly not a recipe for success against high-level competition. According to Gordon, per Gerbasi‘s article, the talented middleweight has a new found dedication to the sport. He said: “I made a complete 180 change in my entire mixed martial arts thinking and way of life, and this fight, to me, is everything.”
He’s looking to showcase the fruits of his labor against another former TUF winner in Antonio Carlos Junior.
This is a contrast in styles and the simple question that determines the winner of this fight will be: Can Gordon stay off his back? If the answer is yes, he stops ACJ near the end of the first round or midway through the second frame.
There’s no questioning Gordon’s superiority in striking, power and athleticism. But stopping ACJ‘s takedowns will be crucial. In his career, Gordon has a 71 percent takedown defense rating. ACJ‘s takedown accuracy is an impressive 75 percent. Something will have to give in this area.
Gordon was convincing. He looks to be dead serious about conditioning and you’d have to believe that also means preparing for his opponent. His already-solid takedown defense should be even sharper and his leaner physique and less strenuous weight cut should improve his cardio.
He’ll stop ACJ with an eye-opening bounce-back performance.
Fight stats per FightMetric.com
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