Don’t get caught up in nostalgia or believing the wily veteran can work some magic. Frank Mir is going to get knocked out in the first or second round by Todd Duffee on Wednesday, and you’ll want to collect the fantasy points the latter produces from his demolition of a future Hall of Famer.
Every one of Duffee‘s 11 professional MMA fights has ended in KO. He’s been the victim just twice. Duffee throws bombs and looks to finish opponents early. Frank Mir may be banking on Duffee expending too much energy early.
Per the UFC on Twitter, Duffee is prepared to take his time.
Mir is an excellent submissions fighter, but getting Duffee in a compromising situation is a difficult task. Duffee has a 90 percent takedown defense rating, per Fight Metric. If Mir can’t get the fight to the ground, he’s going to eat shots. Duffee is too big and strong for anyone to take his punches without going to sleep.
Duffee comes into the event averaging an event-high 87.6 fantasy points per fight. He’ll be the biggest fantasy producer on Wednesday as well. Draft Duffee for $10,500. Here’s a look at my optimal lineup for UFC Fight Night 71:
Another Mauling
Alan Jouban ($11,800) has captured eight of his 11 victories by KO in his MMA career. He’s aggressive, tough and always on the prowl for the stoppage. He’ll be facing the long, lean and defensively flawed Matt Dwyer on Wednesday.
Dwyer was stopped by Albert Tumenov in his UFC debut. In his fight before that against DaMarques Johnson in Battlefield Fight League, Dwyer was rocked and nearly stopped in the first round before rallying for the TKO victory.
He did score a win by spectacular superman punch in his last fight against William Macario in February, but Jouban is a different animal.
Dwyer has a huge heart and he’s tough, but his lack of effective striking defense will lead to a KO loss. Jouban might be neck and neck with Duffee for top fantasy producer from the event after this one.
Upsets
Reneau ($9,000) over Holm
Many are high on Holly Holm, and with good reason. Holm has a stellar background as a boxer, and she’s a great athlete all around. Even with those qualities, Holm is headed for a matchup that she’s going to lose against Marion Reneau.
Holm has worked on her game, but it didn’t look up to snuff enough in her UFC debut against Raquel Pennington in February. Holm won a split decision, but she’s stepping up in class to face Reneau.
Versatility is Reneau‘s specialty. She has excellent boxing—though she probably doesn’t want to do that with Holm—and leg kicks. Reneau may use those skills to vary her attacks, but ultimately she’ll take Holm down and control the fight en route to a decision win.
Reneau may not score big, but she’ll prove to be a worthwhile and relatively low-cost investment.
Moontasri ($8,200) over Lee
Kevin Lee has a hefty DraftKings salary for his fight against James “Moonwalker” Moontasri, but the latter is my pick to shine. Lee looks the part of a powerful striker, but he’s more of a wrestler.
None of Lee’s 10 victories have come by KO in his career. Moontasri is a skilled and unpredictable striker. It wouldn’t be smart for Lee to try to stand with Moontasri. Lee’s biggest advantage would be on the ground, but Moontasri is not an easy fighter to take down.
This is Moontasri‘s third fight in the UFC, and he’s stopped 83 percent of the takedowns attempted against him, per Fight Metric. Also, in watching one of his last fights before joining the UFC, Moontasri was also a handful to take down for Jordan Rinaldi.
Lee hasn’t been all that efficient when it comes to taking down opponents. Fighters like Moontasri who have powerful legs and thighs will be an even bigger problem to wrestle to the ground. Lee’s takedown rate is just 38 percent. Moontasri will keep the fight standing, and he’ll pick away at Lee from the outside.
A decision win for Moontasri wouldn’t be a shock, but it’s easy to see how this fight could end in a TKO win for Moontasri.
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