Filed under: UFC
Will Dominick Cruz continue his reign of dominance over the bantamweight division, or will Demetrious Johnson become the new UFC 135-pound champion? Will Stefan Struve capitalize on his enormous reach advantage, or will Pat Barry get inside and test Struve’s chin? Can Charlie Brenneman knock off Anthony Johnson and improve to 3-0 in 2011? We’ll attempt to answer those questions as we predict the winners on Saturday night’s fight card.
What: UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson
Where: Verizon Center, Washington, D.C.
When: Saturday, the Facebook preliminary card starts at 6 PM ET and the Versus televised card begins at 9.
Predictions on the four Versus fights below.
Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson
Johnson, nicknamed “Mighty Mouse,” is small even for the 135-pound weight class, and he’s going to have a very, very difficult time against the tall and lanky Cruz, who is as good as anyone in the sport at using his reach advantage to prevent his opponents from getting near him. Johnson would love to get inside and take Cruz down repeatedly, as he did in winning decisions over Kid Yamamoto and Miguel Torres to get this title fight, but that’s a very tall order against Cruz.
For Cruz, the path to victory looks a lot like what he’s been doing throughout his title reign: He needs to use his awkward movement and high-volume striking to keep Johnson on the outside and keep him frustrated. Although Johnson’s quickness may be something Cruz hasn’t seen before, Johnson looks like an opponent Cruz should be able to handle standing up for 25 minutes.
And so I like Cruz to do what he usually does: Win by unanimous decision.
Pick: Cruz
Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve
The enormous height difference between Struve (the UFC’s tallest fighter) and Barry (the UFC’s shortest heavyweight) makes this fight interesting visually, but what makes it especially interesting is that neither one of these guys fights the way you’d expect someone his height to fight: Struve often fails to take advantage of his reach and instead lets his opponents get inside and test his chin, while Barry doesn’t let his short, stocky legs prevent him from throwing plenty of kicks.
Barry probably has an advantage if the fight stays standing, but I think this fight will eventually go to the ground, and Struve will have an enormous advantage on the canvas — even if he has to get knocked down to get there. Look for Barry to leave himself exposed on the ground and Struve to capitalize and win by submission.
Pick: Struve
Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman
Johnson returned after more than a year away and put a one-sided beating on Dan Hardy in March, and he’ll look to do it again when he takes on Brenneman, who’s coming off a big win over Rick Story. I think the savvy Brenneman is going to give Johnson a lot more trouble on the ground than most people expect, and win a decision.
Pick: Brenneman
Matt Wiman vs. Mac Danzig
Some unfinished business between these two is finally about to get resolved: At UFC 115 in June of 2010, Wiman won when referee Yves Lavigne wrongly thought Danzig had passed out while in a guillotine choke. (In reality, Danzig was alert and defending himself.) The UFC tried to book them in an immediate rematch, but injuries got in the way. Now they’re finally ready to meet again, and I like Wiman to win legitimately this time, taking a decision.
Pick: Wiman