The UFC on Fox 15 card is really good. It is headlined by No. 2-ranked middleweight and former light heavyweight champion Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida vs. No. 4-ranked Luke Rockhold. The event would have been even better if the beastly Yoel Romero hadn’t had to bow out of the co-featured bout with No. 1-ranked middleweight Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza due to injury.
Romero’s replacement, Chris Camozzi, is a familiar face for UFC fans and Jacare. Camozzi had 13 fights in the UFC from 2010 to 2014, including a technical-submission loss to Jacare in the former’s UFC debut. Because of this, nothing about the fight screams intrigue—at least not on paper.
Nonetheless, the show must go on, and there’s reason to believe this could still be one of the more memorable cards of the year. The winner of Machida vs. Rockhold could be in line for a shot at the winner of the fight between UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman and Vitor Belfort at UFC 187 on May 23.
Needless to say, the stakes are high. The rest of the card is bolstered by a solid main card and interesting preliminary bouts.
The action takes place at the Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The fights kick off Saturday with UFC Fight Pass exclusive preliminaries at 4:30 p.m. ET. Take a look at the complete viewing information for the entire card with predictions for each fight. Just below the table is a closer look at the biggest main card bouts and what to watch for during the prelims.
Main Card Musings
Machida‘s Speed and Striking Diversity Will Lead to TKO
Few fighters in any weight class bring the stand-up skills that Machida does. His kicks rise and strike quickly and carry a ton of force. Just ask C.B. Dollaway, Mark Munoz, Randy Couture and Rich Franklin. Machida defeated each of them with kicks. A head kick was the telling blow against each one of them except for Dollaway.
Rockhold knows a little bit about eating nasty kicks to the head. The only loss he suffered in the UFC came on a spinning heel kick from Belfort in the former’s debut with the promotion back at UFC on FX 8 in May 2013. Since then, Rockhold has been rock-solid. He’s scored stoppage wins over Costas Philippou, Tim Boetsch and Michael Bisping to set up this important scrap with The Dragon.
Boetsch, Bisping and Philippou are all formidable opponents. Bisping and Philippou are even known for their striking. The differences between them and Machida are speed, variance of attack and the ability to change levels. Machida can go to the body and head and even drop down to secure a takedown if need be—though he probably doesn’t want to be on the ground in this one.
Rockhold is an improved striker, but not one who figures to cause Machida much peril in stand-up exchanges. To win, Rockhold needs to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against Machida. He’s adept at staying on his feet. The American knows Machida is skilled but cites his own well-roundedness as the key to his winning.
Rockhold told Dave Meltzer of MMA Fighting: “I’ll fight my fight. I’m going to control the cage, strike with him and make him think about my takedowns. If he’s taken to the ground, he’ll get into trouble, and it’ll open up my striking. The key is MMA, and I’m the most well-rounded fighter in the game. If I put it all together, I don’t have to worry about too much.”
The numbers don’t necessarily support Rockhold‘s claim. Per FightMetric, Machida has thwarted 77 percent of his opponents’ attempts to take him down. As good as Rockhold is at securing submissions, he only has a 20 percent takedown accuracy rate. Unless Machida gives him the opportunity, it’s hard to imagine how Rockhold can control the identity of the bout.
This fight will remain standing, and Machida will have the clear advantage in that type of battle. He will stop Rockhold with a kick and a flurry.
Camozzi Is Going to Get Flattened and Submitted
Who’s giving Camozzi a chance to beat Souza in the co-feature—besides family and friends of the 30-year-old UFC veteran? Oddsmakers certainly aren’t. Per Odds Shark, Camozzi is the biggest underdog on the card at plus-550.
Apparently, an esteemed MMA writer and connoisseur of the sport likes Camozzi to pull the upset.
Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda not only picked Camozzi to win but also to score a first-round TKO over Jacare: “If Camozzi can get Jacare frustrated and anxious, and make him reach and try too hard because he wants to finish the fight, you just never know. Camozzi can throw a hard kick and a hard punch.”
With all due respect to Cepeda, Camozzi has as much chance to win this fight as Eric “Butterbean” Esch would have in besting Usain Bolt in a foot race. Camozzi is a tough gamer who brings it every time he’s in the Octagon. But let’s not forget that a four-fight losing streak led to him getting cut and having to take this bout to get back into the promotion.
Despite being five years older, Souza is a better athlete, grappler and submissions artist. Camozzi’s only chance is to catch Souza with something wild during the stand-up, but that won’t happen. Souza will beat him up long enough to get the fight to the ground, where he’ll finish him with a submission again.
Favorite for Fight of the Night
As pure striking matchups go, it doesn’t get much better than No. 9-ranked featherweight Max “Blessed” Holloway vs. No. 5-ranked Cub Swanson. Both men are above-average athletes who prefer to stand and trade shots.
Patrick Wyman of Sherdog said this about the bout: “This should be an absolute barnburner. Both fighters like to work on the feet, and neither seems likely to shoot for more than a change-of-pace takedown.”
The 23-year-old Holloway is on fire. He’s won five straight fights and is looking to burst into the Top Five with a win over Swanson. The latter had been on his own roll before being demolished by Frankie Edgar in November 2014. Swanson is now looking to pick up the pieces in a bout against an up-and-coming young lion.
I love Holloway’s activity, solid defense and toughness. He and Swanson’s striking accuracy are similar (44 percent for Swanson and 41 percent for Holloway), but Blessed is far more active. He fires 5.62 strikes per minute compared to 3.13 for Swanson.
Much of this is due to Holloway’s penchant for throwing combinations. This will be the biggest key to his success and why he’ll gut out a tough win over Swanson via unanimous decision.
The Next Strawweight Star Will Emerge
The battle between No. 8-ranked strawweight Felice Herrig and No. 12-ranked Paige VanZant could be a modeling competition just as easy as a fight. Let’s just say both women have the looks of stars. They can also fight.
Herrig fell short in her quest to win The Ultimate Fighter 20 and the strawweight title, but she had a successful official UFC debut. She defeated Lisa Ellis at the TUF 20 finale via submission and would love to mount a two-fight win streak.
VanZant will have none of that. The vicious 21-year-old striker has the edge in explosion and grit. She too won her UFC debut when she stopped Kailin Curran via TKO on the aforementioned Edgar vs. Swanson card.
Look for her to take the fight to Herrig and overwhelm her with strikes early in the fight. Get ready for an impressive and quick finish from VanZant.
What to Watch in the Prelims
OSP vs. Durkin
Two different styles will clash when No. 7-ranked light heavyweight Ovince Saint Preux tangles with Patrick “Durkin” Cummins. OSP likes to strike and finish on his feet, though he has shown off solid submission skills. Cummins is a pure wrestler who hasn’t quite found himself as a striker just yet.
Which style wins out?
In this instance, it’s hard for me to see OSP preventing Cummins from taking him down. Before he battered an over-the-hill Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in his last fight, OSP was dominated by Ryan Bader’s wrestling in August 2014. It seems logical to expect the same thing happens in this one.
Cummins should win this by submission or lopsided decision.
Dariush Is the Real Deal
After Beneil Dariush takes care of respected veteran and No. 12-ranked lightweight Jim Miller, the UFC will have no other choice but to welcome him to the Top 15 lightweight rankings. The 25-year-old Dariush has strung together three straight impressive wins over Tony Martin, Daron Cruickshank and Carlos Diego Ferreira.
If you’re looking for a fighter who transitions from submission to submission with intelligence and proper execution, it’s Dariush. Miller is a tough guy and excellent submission fighter in his own right, but he’s not quick enough in the stand-up, and dare I say, not quite as slick on the ground.
That’s a bold statement considering Miller has 14 submission wins in his career, but that’s just how good Dariush is on the ground. I won’t say Miller gets submitted, but he won’t find an advantage on the ground.
The fight will be contested primarily on the feet, and Dariush is the kicker and better striker. He wins by unanimous decision.
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