Let’s be honest, the card for UFC on Fox 16 isn’t an easy one to call for DraftKings players. The main event itself is a tough one to predict. UFC bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw’s DK salary is a handsome $10,900, but it’s hard to see Barao as that much of a long shot to win.
Barao’s struggles to make 135 pounds could still be an issue, but if not, it seems certain he’ll deliver a better performance than he did when he met Dillashaw in May 2014.
Dillashaw took the title from Barao in that fight via fifth-round TKO, and he stopped Joe Soto when a brutal weight cut left Barao too ill to compete in the rematch at UFC 177. Barao is tempting to draft because his DK salary is just $8,500, but if he looks listless and drained as he did in the two men’s first meeting, he could get stopped again.
This one just seems too close to call.
The loser figures to have an opportunity to put up some points from significant strikes and takedowns, but in DK MMA, it’s all about finishes. The main event has a good chance to go the distance. Because of that, I’m leaving it alone. Here’s a look at my five for the event:
Surest Picks
Joe Lauzon, ($11,100) vs. Takanori Gomi
“The Fireball Kid” is a Japanese MMA legend, but at 36 years old, Takanori Gomi is not the fighter he once was. Even in his prime, he was vulnerable to submissions. Of his 10 losses, six of them have come by tap out.
That’s a bad look when you’re set to face Joe Lauzon. He has 11 wins in his UFC career, and seven of them have come by submission. Without question, Lauzon will be looking to take Gomi down at some point. When he does, it’ll be just a matter of time before he forces him to tap.
Lauzon is the fighter you have to have from this event.
Zak Cummings ($11,200) vs. Dominique Steele
Let’s look at the UFC Fight Pass preliminary card for the other virtual lock. Zak Cummings is a slightly underrated fighter who has compiled a 17-4 record in his MMA career. Three of those four losses came against elite competition. Most recently Cummings lost to Gunnar Nelson in July 2014. He has also been bested by Tim Kennedy in 2009 and Ryan Jimmo in 2011.
In other words, he’s a legit fighter, but he’s not among the upper echelon. Those fights were fought at middleweight and above. Cummings is coming down to 170 pounds for this fight and he should have a big advantage. Dominique Steele is making his UFC debut, but he’s not a fighter who looks to have a long future in the promotion.
In watching his fights from other promotions, there’s several defensive flaws to note: Steele stands flat-footed, and he doesn’t have a ton of head movement or any real weapons to finish. He’s more of a grinder with a strong chin who’s looking to outwork opponents.
That alone will not cut it in the UFC, and he will find that out the hard way. Look for Cummings to secure the takedown and lock on a submission to finish this one within the first two rounds.
Closest Call
Paul Felder ($9,700) vs. Edson Barboza
There’s a reason both Paul Felder and Edson Barboza’s DK salary is $9,700. This fight couldn’t be tougher to decipher. Barboza has some of the most devastating kicks in the sport, and he’s lightning fast. However, Felder is a big, strong and an impressively well-rounded lightweight who is coming off a second-round KO win over Danny Castillo.
Felder gets the nod in this one for a few reasons: Both are skilled grapplers, but Felder is physically stronger. If this fight goes to the ground, he should have an advantage. Secondly, Felder trains with Donald Cerrone. The latter fought and beat Barboza via submission back in May 2014.
Barboza was having success early, but Cerrone began to check the Brazilian’s leg kicks and took control from there. Barboza was dropped by a jab and submitted via rear-naked choke. You can bet Felder learned a bit from watching that fight, and has also received some pointers from Cerrone.
Felder will take advantage of Barboza’s suspect chin with a counter shot that sets up a TKO victory.
Biggest Value
James Krause ($9,100) vs. Daron Cruickshank
Daron Cruickshank looks the part of a dynamic and dangerous lightweight, but he’s yet to prove it in the Octagon. He has some of the most dynamic head kicks in the sport, but he’s been well scouted and has rarely landed the strikes in recent fights.
One of the biggest reasons he has struggled is the lack of diversity to his offensive game. His effectiveness is predicated on landing the big kick. Cruickshank isn’t an especially good wrestler or striker with his hands. Half of his losses have come by submission, and that’s a strength of James Krause’s game.
Krause has 21 professional wins, and 13 of them have come by way of submission. He has lost three of his last four fights, so he will be desperate to get a win. Krause will also enjoy a six-inch height advantage which could make it difficult for Cruickshank to get in range to land one of his signature kicks.
A decision win based on top position is most likely for Krause, but don’t rule out another submission win after he catches one of Cruickshank’s kicks to the body and turns it into a takedown.
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