UFC on Fox 16 plays host to a critical bantamweight matchup between No. 2-ranked contender Miesha Tate and No. 5-ranked Jessica Eye. This could be a title eliminator taking place in Chicago.
Tate is riding a three-fight winning streak in her attempt to earn a third shot against Ronda Rousey. Eye is coming off a gruesome win against Leslie Smith last November. This fight will be a big test for Eye in her attempt to get the elusive title shot. Is she able to beat Tate to earn that opportunity? Absolutely.
Eye has all the tools to win this fight.
The Cleveland native loves to brawl, and she has a high output. Her FightMetric numbers show her landing 5.26 significant strikes per minute. Unfortunately, she also absorbs 4.6 per minute. Still, her output is more than three times as high as Tate’s significant strikes.
The numbers indicate that this will be a striker vs. grappler matchup. Tate will want to put Eye on her back. Tate is a decent wrestler, and Eye’s stats don’t show her to be a great defensive grappler. This could play right into Tate’s game plan, but the numbers are a bit misleading.
Eye is a smart fighter. There is little doubt she is preparing to stifle the takedown attempts, and she is not inept on the mat either. If Eye is able to keep the fight standing, her boxing will be on display.
She holds a slight reach advantage over Tate, and the footage shows who is the better striker. Tate’s boxing is rudimentary. She uses it to get inside, but it is not technical in any sense. Eye, on the other hand, has much better boxing. She should be able to touch up Tate and easily slip to avoid Tate getting inside to grapple with her. In a three-round fight, Eye could easily take a decision by point fighting.
Even though Tate will be seeking the takedown, she has a penchant for getting caught up in striking battles. She does not mind a brawl, but approaching a fight with Eye that way would be a mistake. If the Ohioan can suck her into a stand-up battle, she will punch her ticket to a title fight.
This being a three-round fight drastically helps Eye. Tate would be more able to grind in later rounds when the pace slows, but in a three-round fight, Eye can let her hands go with ferocity. She won’t tire in 15 minutes, and the judges will be more easily swayed by punches connecting than grappling. Tate must be successful in her takedown attempts.
We have seen time and again what happens when grapplers have their early takedowns stuffed. It is demoralizing, and it forces them to spend time searching for different ways to get the fight to the floor. It allows the strikers more time to rack up points or land fight-altering blows. The first round will be vital in Eye vs. Tate.
Who wins next month will come down to where this fight takes place. Tate will not win standing against Eye. Can Eye keep the fight on the feet? It will not be easy, but she has the ability to do just that. This will be a close fight and a fun one. If Tate fails to put Eye on the canvas in the first round, expect to see the evil one getting her hand raised at the end of the fight.
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