In the third installment of UFC on Fox, Las Vegas oddsmakers are practically giving money away by making Jim Miller a 2-1 favorite over the fiery Nate Diaz.
Miller has the better record and the better ground game, but there’s no way he should be so heavily favored.
With his length, striking accuracy and volume punching, Diaz is perhaps the most dangerous stand-up fighter in the lightweight division. When he’s on his feet, he uses his 76-inch reach and relentless motor to devastate opponents.
He constantly throws strikes and lands an insanely high number of them. In his unanimous decision win over Donald Cerrone in December, Diaz connected on a ridiculous 82 percent of his strikes. If his number is anywhere near that tonight, Miller will be in trouble.
As he enters his physical prime, the 27-year-old Diaz is also showing major improvements in his all-around game.
His boxing became more technical and efficient against Takanori Gomi, and he took it to another level against Cerrone. And although he didn’t show it off in December, his grappling was much improved in the Gomi fight as well. He transitioned beautifully from the triangle lock to an armbar, earning the 10th submission victory of his career.
He won’t want to be off his feet too often against Miller, but if the fight does go to the ground, he can hold his own long enough to stand back up.
Like most MMA fights, this one will be decided by who can stay in his comfort zone. If Miller can’t keep Diaz off his feet, he will be eating punches all night long. Given the improvement in Diaz’s ground game, I don’t think Miler will be able to dominate him in that aspect.
This one will be close, and since neither fighter has been in a fourth or fifth round, it will get very interesting if this battle goes the distance. In the end, I think Diaz will win over the judges by constantly moving forward and connecting on a large majority of his punches.
If you’re the gambling type, put your money on Diaz and collect some easy cash.
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