In 2006, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira defeated Fabricio Werdum in a hard-fought match that went to decision. Nogueira was able to edge the young up-and-comer with crisper boxing, better cardio and the ability to remain one step ahead.
On June 8 at UFC on Fuel TV 10 from Brazil, one would be wise not to assume the same outcome will play out in the rematch.
For any old guard fan of the sport, Nogueira has been a staple of the top 10 for heavyweights. Unfortunately, for the nostalgic throngs, it is clear that time takes its toll on every man, and Nogueira has shown to be no different.
Nogueira has known since the fight was announced that the Werdum he would be facing was not the same man he faced in 2006. In an interview with MMAJunkie.com Radio, “Minotauro” said “I know it’s not going to be the same fight [as before].”
He went on to say, “I know he changed a lot. He improved his stand-up. So did I. I think I improved my wrestling, and my boxing is way better—my striking, too. I think I can hit harder than last time I fought him. It’s going to be a great fight.”
Despite Nogueira’s belief in his skills, as well as ample time to recommit them to perfection, he has remained inconsistent throughout the last four years of his storied career. He currently holds a 5-3 UFC record.
What is more telling than the record itself is the style of his losses The veteran’s strongest asset was always his persevering spirit, no matter how badly he was punished by an opponent. Recent years have seen that aura of invincibility fade. Nogueira can now be stopped, both by submission and knockout.
In contrast, Fabricio Werdum has continued to improved his skill set since the 2006 match. He has added solid striking to his already devastating ground skills. Simply put, Werdum’s skills have improved while Nogueira’s have continued to wane.
Werdum is likely aware of the fact that Nogueira is no longer capable of surviving all onslaughts. Werdum is sure to hold the upper hand in both the striking and grappling, while necessarily still respecting the tenacious vet enough to not make a costly error.
Werdum is considered by bookies and fans to likely find his way past Nogueira. He sits at as much as minus-300 according BetUS.com, while Nogueira is a plus-225 underdog.
UFC president Dana White told Tatame.com (h/t Bloody Elbow) a victory will ensure Fabricio a title shot. This adds extra incentive for Werdum to fight smart but also engage the former UFC and Pride Heavyweight Champion. A lackluster win will do Werdum no favors.
For Nogueira, he is fighting for his career, and so he will likely pull out all stops to show he is still a viable candidate in the division and the sport itself. Nogueira will almost certainly need to retire from the sport, and the UFC have given him a fitting platform to do so, as he could essentially pass the torch to Werdum.
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