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Dustin Poirier (12-1-0) vs Chan Sung Jung (12-3-0)
Chan Sung Jung (aka The Korean Zombie) has quickly risen to the top of the list of MMA fan favorites. His attacking style lends itself to exciting fights and the finishes fans have come to expect from the sport. Beginning with his fights in Korea and Japan, global MMA fans watched him ascend from obscurity to mainstream popularity in just two years and he is now established as a headliner on a card that also features a former Ultimate Fighter winner in Amir Sadollah and one of the best 155 pound fighters in the world in Donald Cerrone. The question with Jung is whether his popularity has outpaced his skill level. The oddsmakers have Poirier as a solid favorite at -321 and any reasonable observer would have to agree that the line is right where it should be. But this is where one begins to run into problems when trying to breakdown an enigma like Jung.
Since he has come to the United States, he has engaged in one of the greatest fights in MMA history with Leonard Garcia, lost to George Roop via spectacular head kick knockout, beat Leonard Garcia and earned submission of the year with the first ever Twister in the UFC and knocked out Mark Hominick in seven seconds on his first punch of the night. Presented with just that information, one would wonder why he isn’t favored in this fight. The problem is that the reality of what took place in those fights is less exciting than the myth of the Korean Zombie. Leonard Garcia is one of the toughest, most entertaining fighters in the world at any weight class. He would fight Godzilla if someone would sanction it. And even if the scouting report said Godzilla had no ground game, Garcia would stand and throw haymakers until he got eaten. But he’s a mid-level opponent and beating him twice (which Jung did regardless of what the judges claimed to have seen in the first fight) doesn’t put a fighter in the upper echelon. The fight with Mark Hominick is even more misleading. What kind of conclusions can be drawn from a seven second fight? If Jung and Hominick were to fight 1000 times, how many times does the fight end that way? As exciting as it was, we didn’t learn anything from that fight. Add in the fact that George Roop clearly outstruck him in and knocked him out early in the second round and things get even more confusing. Who is Chan Sung Jung? Is he a mid level fighter with a knack for entertaining the fans or is he an upper echelon fighter who’s knockout of Hominick is a precursor of things to come? This fight should bring us closer to answering that question.
Dustin Poirier is one of the best young prospects in the 145 pound weight class. He has future title contender potential and this is his first opportunity to take a major step forward in marketability. He has the skills in every area to be great. Since coming to the UFC, he has improved with every fight. He beat the highly regarded Josh Grispi via unanimous decision, performed the same feat against Jason Young, submitted Pablo Garza via brabo choke and submitted Max Holloway via mounted triangle armbar. In his first two fights in the UFC, he controlled his opponents and clearly won the fights but his last two fights have been even more impressive with finishes that show his submission game is evolving rapidly. He clearly outclassed Garza in every aspect of the fight and when Garza failed to recognize the choke attempt in the second round, Poirier finished him quickly. He showed continued growth in the Holloway fight as he once again dominated and showed high level ground transitions in moving from an armbar to a triangle to a mounted triangle to a mounted triangle armbar. Holloway did not submit easily but Poirier would not be denied and once again, proved himself to be a level above his opponent.
This fight gives both fighters the opportunity they need. If Jung wins this fight, he will have to be considered as one of the top fighters in the weight class and might earn a title shot depending on what happens with the rest of the division. Hominick just fought for the title and Poirier is widely considered to be a top ten talent so back to back wins over those two might be enough to get what no one else at 145 seems to want, which is a title fight with Jose Aldo. Poirier likely has the same opportunity. Although his hit list would be less impressive than Jung’s, he has title level talent and if no one else is willing to fight Aldo, he could get his chance earlier than expected.
The line on this fight at the time of writing this article has Poirier favored at -321 with Jung the underdog at +279. That seems about right as Poirier clearly has the pedigree and talent advantage. But nobody thought Jung had a chance against Hominick and that fight ended with one punch. I expect Poirier to control the fight and win a unanimous decision but Jung has a habit of making measurables like pedigree and talent irrelevant. Can he do it again? We’ll find out on Tuesday night.
-Alan Wells