Chris Weidman vs. Mark Munoz
The headliner at UFC on Fuel TV 4 is a matchup of up and coming middleweights. After Anderson Silva’s dominant performance at UFC 148, fans are looking for someone who might be able to challenge him in the future and this fight features two of the brighter young prospects in the division. Both come from a highly decorated wrestling background as two time All-Americans with Munoz even capturing a national championship.
Munoz had his first professional MMA fight in the summer of 2007 and is 12-2 in his career. He has seven wins and two losses in his UFC career. One was in his first UFC appearance against Matt Hamill and the other was against perennial contender Yushin Okami. Since the loss to Okami, he has reeled off four straight victories including his last two appearances against Demian Maia and Chris Leben. As expected, his main asset in the cage is his wrestling but he is not a prototypical decision grinder like many of the former collegiate wrestlers. He has devastating power in his hands and has shown some of the fiercest ground and pound in all of MMA. He is one of the few fighters who has one punch knock out power on the ground as well as on the feet.
Weidman is less experienced than Munoz having made his debut in February of 2009 and having only eight professional fights thus far in his career. However, he has won all eight of those fights. His last four victories have come in the UFC with the last two coming against Tom Lawlor and Demian Maia. His most recent performance against Maia was lackluster at best, which could have been due to accepting the fight on late notice and struggling with the weight cut. Regardless of the reasons for the performance, he will need to improve greatly if he wants to continue his undefeated streak. Like Munoz, his game is predicated on wrestling but he seems to prefer submissions to ground and pound when looking to finish.
When two high caliber wrestlers meet in the octagon, the result is usually a less than technical kickboxing match. Based on previous performance, Munoz is the better striker but high level athletes like Weidman tend to grow exponentially between fights early in their careers so I expect him to show a marked improvement in his striking. That said, Munoz should still have the advantage. The key to this fight will be who, if anyone, can land takedowns. Munoz will more than likely look to use his wrestling defensively and hope to exploit a striking advantage. But if the striking is close, he may look for the takedown. Weidman will be the more likely fighter to try to engage in a wrestling match as earning top position would give him the opportunity to work his submission game.
Weidman is the favorite for this fight at -135 with Munoz coming in at +115. I know Weidman is the new hot prospect with his undefeated record but I don’t quite understand that line. We’ve seen these types of fights between top level wrestlers before and they almost always turn into striking matches. And based on what we’ve seen so far, Munoz has an advantage in that category. Expect to see these two stand for most of the fight and if that’s the case, Munoz should be able to oustrike his opponent. But if Weidman can get a few takedowns and control from the top position, he has the submission skills to finish the fight and earn the victory.
James Te Huna vs. Joey Beltran
The UFC gives the fans what they want with a heavyweight slugfest between James Te Huna and Joey Beltran. Both of these fighters approach the cage with the same gameplan every time. The are both looking to stand and bang until someone can’t stand any longer.
Te Huna is 14-2 overall including a 3-1 record in the UFC. He has won his last two fights against Aaron Rosa and Ricardo Romero via TKO in less than three minutes combined. His performance against Rosa in his last fight was particularly devastating and should have been stopped well before the forty seven second mark where it was finally ended. Te Huna’s weakness is his ground game but don’t expect Beltran to test it as he has done nothing but brawl throughout his career. He is 14-7 overall and went 3-4 in his most recent UFC stint being let go after back to back losses to Stipo Miocic and Lavar Johnson. Beltran has a ridiculous chin and has made a career of eating huge shots to land his own. This is a dangerous fight for him because he cannot afford to get hit too many times by Te Huna. This fight seems destined for a first round stoppage and unfortunately for Beltran, his jaw seems more likely to receive the shot that ends it.
None of the major bookmakers have odds for any of the fights on this card other than the main event but if they did, Te Huna would have to be a big favorite here. Beltran’s only hope is for his brick chin to allow him to survive long enough to land a haymaker on Te Huna. Expect a slugfest from the outset and this one will probably be done inside of the first five minute.
Aaron Simpson vs. Kenny Robertson
In a fight changed due to injury, Kenny Robertson replaces Jon Fitch to welcome Aaron Simpson to the welterweight division. Simpson has been a fixture in the UFC middleweight division for years but was never able to earn a signature victory. At thirty seven years old, he will make the cut to welterweight for the first time in the hopes of finding more success.
Simpson dropped a close decision to Ronny Markes in his last appearance. He hurt Markes early and won the first round but didn’t muster much offense after than and lost the last two rounds. Prior to that fight, he had won three straight following a two fight losing streak to Mark Munoz and Chris Leben. He will look to get back on the winning track against Robertson, who lost to Mike Pierce via TKO in the 2nd round in his only UFC appearance. However, that loss is the only one on Robertson’s record so this is an opportunity for him to earn his way into the UFC. Simpson comes from a wrestling background and has developed his striking over the years. He has the power to finish the fight with his hands and has done so on many occasions. Robertson prefers to bring the fight to the ground and work his submission game, which will be difficult to do against a wrestler like Simpson.
Unfortunately for Robertson, he faces a similar situation to what he faced in his first UFC appearance against Mike Pierce. Simpson is stronger and a better wrestler, which will make it difficult for Robertson to get the fight to the ground where he wants it. Expect Simpson to use his strength to control the fight and if he finds Robertson’s chin, the fight could be over quickly. However, if Robertson can make Simpson work and take the fight into the third round, we might see Simpson struggling with his cardio after cutting to 170 lbs for the first time. If that’s the case, Robertson may get the opportunity to get Simpson on the ground and work for submissions.