Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani
In another fight changed due to injury, the UFC on Fuel TV 4 opener will feature Anthony Njokuani and Rafael Dos Anjos who steps in to replace Paul Taylor. Normally, the UFC likes to start their cards with a fight between lighter weight fighters who are likely to stand and strike to get the crowd into the event and hook the television audience. With Njokuani and Taylor, that would have been the case. Instead, we will see a classic grappler versus striker matchup as Dos Anjos will look to get Njokuani to the ground and work his black belt level jiu-jitsu.
Njokuani is one of the best strikers in the lightweight division. His long lean frame gives him a huge reach advantage against just about every other fighter in the division including Dos Anjos. His gameplan is pretty much the same for every fight. He looks to use his reach to keep his opponent at a distance and strike his way to victory. He is capable of a knockout but is not known for finishing and if he does earn a finish, it usually comes late in the fight due more to an accumulation of strikes than to the power of any one individual strike. He is 2-2 in his UFC career since moving over from the WEC with wins against John Makdessi and Andre Winner and losses against Edson Barboza and Danny Castillo. His performance against Makdessi in his last appearance was particularly impressive as he used his length to dominate with kicks. But he’ll need to be in even better form if he wants to put together back to back victories as Dos Anjos represents a step up in competition. Dos Anjos is mainly known as a jiu-jitsu fighter who looks to get his opponents to the mat and submit them. He has earned half of his sixteen career victories via submission including his last victory against Kamal Shalorus by rear naked choke. However, he set up the choke with a head kick that dropped Shalorus showing an improvement in his striking ability. Dos Anjos has been up and down in his UFC career with a 5-4 record but a victory against Njokuani would earn him back to back victories for the first time since 2010.
This fight is likely to be determined by whether or not Dos Anjos succeeds in landing the takedown. He showed improved striking against Shalorus but he is not on Njokuani’s level in that area and he will struggle to close the distance against the reach advantage of his opponent. The last fighter to get Njokuani down and control him was Danny Castillo. And even he struggled to maintain any kind of dominant position. Dos Anjos’s takedowns are not on that level and he is likely to struggle to get Njokuani down and keep him down. Expect Njokuani to use his reach advantage to keep Dos Anjos at distance and if he can do that, he should be able to strike his way to victory. But Dos Anjos only needs a few seconds on the ground to lock on to a submission so if he can get the takedown, he could earn the victory.
T.J. Dillashaw vs. Vaughan Lee
In the second fight of the night on Fuel TV, young bantamweight prospect T.J. Dillashaw will face Vaughan Lee. Dillashaw is just twenty six years old and has a 5-1 career record. The team alpha male product will look to build on his last victory against Walel Watson and continue to establish himself as a threat in the 135 lb division. Lee will be looking to prove that his upset victory over Norifumi Yamamoto was not a fluke and earn the right to continue fighting in the UFC.
Lee is 1-1 in his UFC career having lost a split decision to Chris Cariaso in his first fight before shocking everyone by upsetting Yamamoto in Japan at UFC 144. Lee was in trouble early in that fight but responded with a flying knee that eventually led to an armbar submission victory late in the first round. With a 12-7-1 career record, he will need to pull off another upset to prove that he belongs in the UFC bantamweight division. Coming from one of the best camps in the world, T.J. Dillashaw is looking to establish himself as a serious threat at 135 lbs. He dominated Walel Watson in his last UFC appearance earning a unanimous decision victory. He repeatedly put Watson on his back and rode him back and forth from mount to back mount landing strikes all along the way. He did everything but finish and he’ll be looking to do just that in this fight.
Dillashaw is the clear favorite going into this fight. He will look to put Lee on his back and work his impressive grappling game. But he’ll need to be careful as Lee has more to offer on the ground than Watson did. Expect to see a lot of grappling and whoever gets the better of the scrambles will likely earn the victory. If Dillashaw continues to show the kind of improvement he showed between his last two fights, he should be able to earn his second consecutive UFC victory.
Karlos Vemola vs. Francis Carmont
In a matchup of exciting middleweights who rarely make use of the judges scorecards, Karlos Vemola takes on Francis Carmont. Neither is a serious contender in the division but both have a tendency to fight aggressively, which is good news for the fans. Both fighters have knockout power and both are capable of submissions.
Vemola has alternated wins and losses on his way to a 2-2 record in the UFC. He earned a second round victory via rear naked choke against Mike Massenzio in his last appearance. That marked his fifth career victory in eleven fights via RNC. Vemola is an explosive fighter with big power in his hands. His submission victories are also usually based on overpowering his opponents. However, he is not the most technical fighter and has been controlled by opponents who approach him with a clear game plan of avoiding the exchanges and putting him on his back. Carmont, however, is not that type of fighter. He also looks for the finish and is likely to trade with Vemola early, which could be dangerous. If he goes for the takedown, he will look for submissions and not be interested in simply controlling his opponent. Carmont is 2-0 in his UFC career including his most recent victory over Magnus Cedenbland via rear naked choke. He was in trouble in the first round of that fight but responded in the second round with a quick takedown. From there, he moved to mount and used strikes to force his opponent to give up his back and neck.
This is another fight that isn’t likely to go to a decision. I don’t see either fighter having a clear advantage and the outcome will likely depend on who executes the most effective gameplan. Both fighters should be looking to set up a takedown and work from the top position as they both have the same weakness. If either fighter takes that approach, he is likely to earn the victory. But the more likely outcome is a series of exchanges on the feet and scrambles on the ground that eventually lead to a finish.