If the UFC matchmakers played baseball the way they arranged title fights, they’d be in the MLB Hall of Fame.
They strike out sometimes, as they did Wednesday when they announced, via UFC Tonight, that Daniel Cormier would likely face Alexander Gustafsson—not Ryan Bader—for his first title light heavyweight title defense.
But they also see a hanging curveball coming their way, load up and smash it out of the stadium when the opportunity presents itself. Such is the case with the home run matchup of UFC middleweight champion Chris Weidman and top contender Luke Rockhold, according to UFC Tonight.
That’s batting .500 with one homer in two at-bats. The strikeout was brutal and ugly, but overall, you have to be pleased with what they gave us.
Make no mistake, though: Cormier should be fighting Bader.
Besides the fact Gustafsson is coming off a knockout loss in his home country to Anthony “Rumble” Johnson, he’s not a massive draw.
This matchup would be excusable (but still a little questionable) if Gustafsson had the drawing power of a Chael Sonnen-type of fighter, but he doesn’t. UFC 165—a card Gustafsson and former UFC light heavyweight champ Jon Jones headlined—only raked in an estimated 310,000 pay-per-view buys, the lowest of any of Jones’ main events.
If Cormier vs. Gustafsson was slated to go down in Sweden, maybe Gustafsson‘s following there and the UFC’s ability to hype a “hometown hero” would boost those numbers a bit, but right now, there’s no indication as to where the fight will take place.
Bleacher Report’s Jeremy Botter is speculating the fight will take place at UFC 192 in Houston, in close proximity to Cormier‘s home state of Louisiana. Cormier himself has confirmed the fight will not go down at UFC 191, making UFC 192 the logical choice.
Gustafsson‘s most recent fight, a brutal loss, is strike one. His failure to draw is strike two.
Strike three is the fact that Gustafsson‘s lofty stature in the 205-pound division is built upon a loss. He gave Jones one hell of a fight at UFC 165, barely losing a decision in the process. That boosted his stock to the stratosphere, and nobody has questioned his abilities since.
Gustafsson is a fine fighter, to be certain, but look past that Jones loss. His wins in the UFC leave a lot to be desired, particularly when trying to build a championship-worthy resume.
The Swede’s most recent victory came over the outmatched Jimi Manuwa in March 2014. Manuwa hits hard, but he does little else, and he’s never defeated a Top 10 fighter inside the Octagon. Still, in a shallow light heavyweight class, Manuwa is ranked No. 7, making this a decent victory over a dangerous dude.
Beyond Manuwa, though, we have the aging Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, Thiago Silva, Vladimir Matyushenko and some other relics of light heavyweight days past. Which of those wins impresses you?
Bader, on the other hand, has won four straight. The former Arizona State wrestling standout has defeated Anthony Perosh, Rafael Cavalcante, Ovince St. Preux and Phil Davis consecutively. Two of those fighters—Cavalcante and St. Preux—are currently in the UFC’s Top 10 at 205.
A third—Davis—would be right there with them if he didn’t jump ship to Bellator MMA.
So going 4-of-4 with three wins over Top 10 competition made Bader somehow less worthy for the title than Gustafsson, who, since September 2013, is 1-of-3, with the one win coming over Manuwa.
Oh, and Bader already sold his fight with Cormier pretty damn well. The hype probably wouldn’t have reached Jones vs. Cormier levels, but it would’ve surpassed the silence Gustafsson vs. Cormier created.
All this considered, the UFC’s decision to look to Gustafsson and not Bader just doesn’t make sense.
Thankfully, the promotion made up for its disappointing at-bat in the light heavyweight division by finally confirming Weidman vs. Rockhold for the 185-pound title.
After Rockhold destroyed Lyoto “The Dragon” Machida at UFC on Fox 15, this matchup looked to be an easy pick, but top middleweight Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza also had a strong claim to the title, giving the UFC a bit to think about.
But Rockhold—a California boy through and through—versus Weidman—a 6’2″ caricature of New York—was too irresistible. Rockhold can fight, he can talk, and he can look good while doing it.
Jacare, on the other hand, can do only the first of those three well (and Jacare, if you’re reading this, please don’t hurt me, man).
Rockhold‘s level of competition—he’s won four straight, all against Top 15 fighters—and his ability to sell the fight eventually won out. This, and the fact Rockhold defeated Jacare in 2011, makes Weidman vs. Rockhold the right pick for the next middleweight championship fight.
That fight will have serious buzz, and rightly so.
Cormier vs. Gustafsson, however, will serve as yet another reminder of how badly we need Jones back.
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