Cain Velasquez and Fabricio Werdum have been on a collision course since the latter defeated Mark Hunt to gain the interim UFC heavyweight title.
Throughout the course of UFC history, interim titles haven’t meant much. They’re just glorified placeholders that create an official No. 1 contender. With Velasquez now ready to return to action, Werdum is the one who must prove he really is championship material.
It’s a monumental task for the 37-year-old. Velasquez comes into the bout as the No. 4 fighter on the UFC’s pound-for-pound rankings, and his only loss came at the hands of one of the most powerful punchers in the division. Here’s a look at the tale of the tape, including the latest odds from Odds Shark.
Here are a few predictions as to how the fight will shake out in Mexico City.
Velasquez Keeps It Standing Early
The most popular argument that Werdum can win this fight traces back to the champion’s first fight against Junior dos Santos. In that bout, he was coming off a layoff of more than a year and was caught early. The fight ended in just 64 seconds as JDS emphatically took the title.
With Velasquez coming off another long layoff, there’s a shot that Werdum could do something similar. However, where Werdum is most dangerous in the short term is in his submission game. Velasquez is known for his fierce takedowns, but that takes him right to the guard of the interim champion.
With no sweat early in the fight, the odds that Vai Cavalo locks in a quick submission are increased. It’s with that in mind that Velasquez might opt instead to spend much of the first round putting the pressure on Werdum on the feet.
Standing with Werdum doesn’t come without risk. Velasquez and Werdum are actually No. 4 and 5, respectively, in the organization in significant strike accuracy, per FightMetric. But the one-strike power of JDS isn’t there for Werdum, and few can outstrike Velasquez in the clinch.
The Majority of the Fight Will Be in the Clinch
If you’re someone who finds clinch fighting to be boring, this isn’t the fight for you. Both of these fighters have utilized the clinch in different ways to get to where they are today.
A large part of Werdum’s evolution from elite jiu-jitsu practitioner to well-rounded fighter has come in the improvement of his clinch striking. He used the position to batter Roy Nelson and continues to show an understanding of how to levy damage from the muay thai clinch specifically.
That success might work against him in this case, though. Velasquez is no slouch in the clinch department himself. Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow summed up the former Arizona State wrestler’s use of the clinch during his rise to prominence:
As with all pressure fighters, Velasquez thrives when he can keep the initiative, and literally blinding the opponent is a surefire way to keep him on the reactive. In close, Velasquez makes liberal use of his head to control and manipulate the opponent. It’s mean, and it’s beautiful, and it has played a major role in his ascension to the top of the heavyweight division.
There’s no doubt that Velasquez will look to close the distance and pin Werdum against the cage. It’s a staple of his game. By the same token, Werdum might not look to discourage that. It’s a recipe for a bout that will feature a lot of fighting for position.
Velasquez Will Draw the Finish
Velasquez’s game plan for this bout will look a lot like his others: keep pressuring Werdum until he ultimately wilts.
Werdum is a tough fighter. However, none of the fighters he has seen during his five-fight win streak set a pace anywhere close to the one the champion will set.
The champion’s signature pressure has crumbled every opponent he’s seen to date. He’s even avenged the only loss of his career twice. Unless the injuries that Velasquez suffered during his time away from the cage have diminished his ability to keep up that pressure for five rounds, it’s difficult to envision a new challenger holding that title at the end of the night.
Prediction: Velasquez by third-round TKO.
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