Cain Velasquez won’t be making his anticipated title defense in Mexico City in Saturday night’s UFC 180, but Fabricio Werdum‘s interim heavyweight title bout with Mark Hunt promises to deliver all of the theatrics.
The 37-year-old Werdum fought his way to his first ever title opportunity with a unanimous victory over Travis Browne back in April. But the main event hit a stumbling block just three weeks before showtime, with Velasquez pulling out due to a knee injury that will keep him out until at least March.
Hunt, no stranger to battling some of the top heavyweights in UFC, jumped to accept the invitation to fill Velasquez’s place. After improbably cutting his weight down to 265, he’s geared up to add another upset to his resume.
Most fans are pulling for Velasquez to return in ample time to defend his title against the winner, but with a major injury comes the potential of Saturday night’s champion becoming the new official belt-holder. Without further delay, let’s break down odds and predictions for the upcoming fight.
When: Saturday, November 15
Where: Arena Ciudad de Mexico, Mexico City
Watch: UFC.tv pay-per-view (main card begins at 10 p.m. ET)
Odds: Werdum -410 and Hunt +365, according to Odds Shark (last updated Nov. 14 at 9 p.m. ET).
When Hunt got the call from the UFC confirming he was going to get his title shot—albeit an interim one—against Werdum, it was probably a mix of elation and panic for the 40-year-old.
Why the panic? He was over 300 pounds; Hunt needed to cut down to 265 in the span of three weeks in order to be eligible.
That meant no carbohydrates for a while, but the longtime veteran had no trouble cutting the weight and promptly stuffing himself with carbs following Friday’s weigh-in. Shaheen Al-Shatti of MMA Fighting was on hand:
With the pound-cutting out of the way, Hunt can now fully focus on the task at hand that his opponent has been fixated on ever since April—the chance to become a heavyweight champion.
Both fighters would lift their first UFC belt with a victory, but it’s no secret that Werdum is the heavy favorite. With an 18-5-1 career record, he formerly hung his hat on a dominant jiu-jitsu style but now has improved his striking ability to a similar level.
At least UFC President Dana White thought his dominant victory over Browne back in April proved as much, per Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Iole.
“It was very fair to say that Werdum didn’t do well against strikers, but that changed when he fought Travis Browne,” UFC president Dana White said. “Travis is a big, strong, rangy athletic guy who has great stand-up. Werdum just handled him. After that, you can’t say he doesn’t have the stand-up anymore.”
There’s no doubt Hunt has a massive size advantage, but Werdum more than makes up for it with superior reach and mounds more stamina than his opponent.
Then again, Hunt has made a name for himself in winning fights that he’s been counted out of. A few of those in UFC have come against players of similar size to Werdum like Cheick Kongo and Roy Nelson but not near the skill level.
It can’t be ignored that Hunt faced an uphill battle just to get to this point and may not be 100 percent. But even if Hunt isn’t firing on all cylinders, his fighting style promises to keep him in a slugfest for at least three rounds.
A month ago, Hunt was waiting for his next chance while Werdum was entering the final few weeks of preparation for the biggest fight of his career. That will show in the final few rounds after Hunt impresses early.
Hunt won’t go down easily, but he’ll still go down—and often. Werdum won’t be able to secure the KO, but there will be no doubt when the final bell tolls.
Prediction: Werdum wins via unanimous decision
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