Since he first stepped into the Octagon in 2013, the question that has always been asked about Conor McGregor is “how far can he go?” That’s not an uncommon query in the fight game, but what makes McGregor so special is that it’s still a question that gets asked, even now, with the lightweight title on one shoulder, the featherweight title on the other and every box-office record in his pocket.
While crews are still cleaning up the mess left by the 20,000 rowdy fans that came out to witness history, fans’ and pundits’ eyes are all fixed to the future. What, and who, is next for the first-ever two-division UFC champion?
Here to tackle that question is Bleacher Report MMA‘s dynamic duo of Steven Rondina and Nathan McCarter.
Steven Rondina: Well, Nathan…he did it. Once again, Conor McGregor said he was going to do something, focused in on it and made it a reality. The Pride of Ireland made good on his word and walked out of Madison Square Garden with a belt on either shoulder.
It’s something we’ve never seen before in the UFC and something we may or may not ever see again. But, as is often the case with McGregor, we’re not here to simply look at his historical significance and his pivotal role in the UFC today. We’re here to talk about what’s next.
We have a half-dozen fighters who have recently angled for a fight with McGregor. There are plenty more who could step into that role.
So I’m going to give you a blank slate for this. Who do you, Nathan, feel deserves the crack at McGregor the most? Who has earned the honor of facing the king?
Nathan McCarter: The first step to answering the question is to lay out all the choices. We are talking about three separate divisions where McGregor could theoretically take his next fight.
At featherweight there are two men vying for the fight: Jose Aldo and Max Holloway (scheduled to fight Anthony Pettis at UFC 206). He could jump to welterweight to fight Tyron Woodley after their UFC 205 encounters. And at lightweight, where he is the new kingpin, there are no shortage of contenders with Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson leading the charge.
Each of those five men are deserving in their own right. None more than the other. Who earns the honor? Someone I haven’t even mentioned yet: Nate Diaz.
Why? It’s the money fight. The series is tied at 1-1. UFC 196 and UFC 202 set the stage. Diaz was a lightweight contender prior to taking those fights with McGregor, which broke the bank, and now McGregor holds the gold, making it even more compelling. Book the trilogy in what will likely end up being the biggest fight in UFC history at the box office.
Steven: A lot of feathers have undoubtedly been ruffled by saying Diaz “deserves” it the most. I can already sense people asking ‘why should Diaz get a title shot coming off a loss?’ But you know what? I’m going to agree with you. Diaz does deserve it most.
Not from a traditional sporting perspective, obviously. Diaz is 3-4 over his last seven, and Ferguson and Nurmagomedov are on amazing winning streaks. He deserves it most, though, because the UFC owes him. They owe him big time.
Diaz got absolutely swindled by the company heading into his title fight with Ben Henderson back in 2012, entering the show on a paltry $50,000 show money contract and exiting on an absolutely immoral $15,000 deal. When Diaz tried to renegotiate, he was greeted with public derision from UFC brass, including Dana White’s infamous “not a needle-mover” quote.
Diaz made seven figures for his fight with McGregor at UFC 202, but in my book (and I’m sure in Diaz’s book), they’re still in the red. If they set up McGregor vs. Diaz 3 at UFC 209 in Brooklyn, New York, though? Well, then maybe they’ll be all square.
Where I’ll break from you, though, is the idea that Diaz is the biggest money fight available. The biggest money fight is a boxing match with Floyd Mayweather. But the biggest money fight in MMA? That honor goes to Georges St-Pierre.
Nathan: Yes, we will have to disagree. Big rivalries and trilogies among rivals will always outdraw one-offs. I’m not saying a McGregor vs. GSP [fight] wouldn’t do well over a million buys, but fans are already into the Diaz-McGregor feud hook, line and sinker.
The other aspect to pinpointing McGregor’s next fight is that he is likely to take time off for the birth of his first child. The timetable for his return isn’t set in stone, and that puts all these potential challengers in a tough spot. Do they sit and wait for the mere possibility of getting the call? Or do they take another dangerous fight in the meantime?
Tony Ferguson is a fighter who likes to stay active and isn’t afraid of tough fights that offer him little reward. Why else would he have fought Lando Vannata on short notice at UFC Fight Night 91? I would expect Ferguson to take a fight before McGregor returns. Nurmagomedov has been inactive due to injuries multiple times. Does he really want to wait now that he’s healthy?
Diaz is the lone lightweight who will wait no matter what. He’s already on record as saying he won’t fight again until the trilogy is completed. It seems very straightforward: book McGregor vs. Diaz at the first available opportunity and let Nurmagomedov and Ferguson fight in a title eliminator in the meantime.
Steven: McGregor vs. Diaz is the biggest beef, sure, but there is a rivalry there between GSP and McGregor. It’s old school vs. new school. It’s the GOAT coming out of retirement to defend his throne against a young upstart. It’s Matt Hughes vs. Royce Gracie, 2016 Edition.
And let’s not forget, GSP was the pay-per-view king for a good while and tapped into a very different audience from McGregor at a very different time. GSP vs. Josh Koscheck on the otherwise anemic UFC 124 drew nearly 800,000 buys, according to the Wrestling Observer Newsletter (via MMAPayout.com). While I’m sure a number of those 800,000 threw down cash for UFC 205…I’d also bet the majority didn’t.
On top of that, there is a bit of an historical angle to this fight. While the UFC is actively attacking GSP right now, let’s not forget he’s still the true welterweight champion. If the company can put its feelings aside and pitch this fight as McGregor going for his third title, I think you have a perfect storm of name value, storylines and competitive intrigue.
Of course, I’m not holding my breath that this fight is going to happen. The UFC is in a tug-of-war with both men right now, and I doubt it’d want to strengthen its positions by putting them together for another potentially record-breaking night. Still, I’d say GSP vs. McGregor is the biggest fight that could be made in MMA right now.
Let’s wrap this up, though. Who do you think he faces next, and when do you think it happens?
Nathan: I do think it will be Diaz.
McGregor isn’t going to cut to 145 ever again. I don’t foresee him jumping back to 170 for a chance at a third title. That leaves lightweight as the division to watch.
As he takes time off, I suspect the UFC will go the route of Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson. While the winner should get the title shot, money drives McGregor. Diaz wants the fight, it’s the biggest one on the table and it makes sense to close out the trilogy.
Purists will be upset, but don’t expect the top contender to get the next crack at gold.
Steven: I’m not completely closing the door on McGregor getting down to 145 pounds again, it’s just a matter of whether or not Aldo makes it worth McGregor’s while. Let’s be honest here. Aldo is one of the biggest pay-per-view duds in combat sports history and has put zero effort into fixing that. I’m not especially interested in seeing him sulk his way into a rematch when there are so many tantalizing fights that could be made, and MMA fans tend to agree with that.
My pick, though, is Ferguson.
While McGregor vs. Diaz 3 would be a spectacle, I just don’t think the UFC decision-makers are adult enough to put their feelings aside, pay both men what they’re worth and then reap the benefits. They’ll force the other contenders into a reverse-auction kind of situation, and Ferguson’s activity will be the tiebreaker.
Unless contract negotiations get really ugly, I think he’ll try and fit a fight in for early 2017.
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