Francis Ngannou opened as nearly a 5-1 favorite over former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in their fight at Saturday’s UFC on Fox 23, according to OddsShark.
In a division as unpredictable and perennially troubled as the UFC’s 265-pound class, that’s significant.
It means this weekend’s bout—which will be broadcast live on network TV—shapes up as a potential breakout moment for the up-and-coming Ngannou.
The 30-year-old native of Cameroon has surfed a steadily rising wave of momentum since coming to the UFC in late 2015. As he prepares to make his fourth Octagon appearance in just nine months, this meeting with Arlovski qualifies as his stiffest and highest-profile test yet.
“I have to be careful and very smart because Arlovski has a lot of power like me,” Ngannou recently told FloCombat’s Jim Edwards. “He’s got very dangerous striking and I’ve got to be careful of that. He also has good grappling so I must take care if he tries to take it to the ground.”
So far, Ngannou has finished all his fights while amassing a 4-0 promotional record. A win here will move him into a tie with Derrick Lewis for the division’s longest active win streak and potentially foreshadows a meeting down the road between the organization’s two most visible young heavyweights.
It would also eliminate the biggest knock against Ngannou during his UFC career to date: that he hasn‘t fought any Top 10 competition.
Despite the fact Arlovski comes into this fight amid a three-fight losing streak, the popular Belarusian fighter is still hanging in there at No. 7 on the company’s official heavyweight rankings. He’s less than a month away from turning 38 and possesses a touchy chin, but Arlovski still qualifies as a high-stakes litmus test for Ngannou.
The 30-year-old native of Batie, Cameroon, has been impressive thus far. His chiseled physique certainly makes him look the part of a UFC heavyweight star, and at 6’4″, 250 pounds, he’s plenty big enough to hang with the true giants of the division.
A heavy-hitting knockout artist, Ngannou is also uncommonly mobile for a man his size and surprisingly patient for a fighter who remains relatively green. That patience was on display from the beginning of his UFC run, when Ngannou scored a second-round knockout over Luis Henrique during the internet-only preliminary portion of UFC on Fox 17.
His bouts inside the Octagon have also showcased the sort of steady evolution that makes you wonder just how high he might ultimately fly.
Ngannou has shown off impressive takedown defense, fighting off the wrestling attempts of junior college national champion Curtis Blaydes in their bout in April 2016. The few times Blaydes actually got him down, Ngannou also did a good job of getting up quickly off his back en route to a TKO win via doctor stoppage after the second round.
In his most recent performance, he flashed a lethal submission game, catching six-fight UFC veteran Anthony Hamilton with a slick takedown into a kimura in just one minute and 57 seconds.
The overall profile is astonishingly good for a guy who didn‘t even know what MMA was before wandering into a fight gym in Paris, France, in early 2013, according to a recent feature by Metro‘s Coral Berry.
Berry writes that Ngannou escaped “extreme poverty” in Cameroon only to wind up homeless on the streets of Paris, before one day wandering into Fernand Lopez’s legendary MMA Factory gym.
“My colleague called me and said there was a huge guy asking to train in the gym,” Lopez said, per Berry. “The next day, I got to the gym and Francis was there. I talked with him and I gave him two bags full of clothes and stuff like gear and gloves and I said, ‘Please train MMA.'”
Ngannou initially thought boxing might be his ticket, but his aptitude for MMA was obvious immediately. In footage of his early fights—like his bout against Nicolas Specq in the finals of a tournament held by the 100 Percent Fight organization—you can see the potential, even as he’s still at work rounding out his skills:
The question is whether Ngannou is ready to take on a veteran like Arlovski.
Since his heyday as champion in 2005-2006, the Pitbull has certainly experienced his fair share of ups and downs. Observers thought Arlovski might be finished after watching him drop four fights in a row from 2009-2011.
However, he rebounded to go 10-1-1 during the next four years and even opened his latest UFC stint on a 3-0 tear in 2014. Most recently, though, Arlovski has regressed to his losing ways, dropping consecutive fights against current champ Stipe Miocic, the highly regarded Alistair Overeem and former titlist Josh Barnett.
Obviously, those defeats are all against top-flight competition, and that’s what makes this matchup with Ngannou particularly fascinating. Oddmakers clearly like the matchup for the younger fighter—likely singling out Arlovski’s chin and Ngannou‘s heavy hands as the deciding factor.
That said, if Arlovski came out and used his veteran wiles to salt away a victory, his inexperienced opponent’s flaws might well become glaring in retrospect.
But if this fight plays out according to chalk and Ngannou can win it, then his ticket will be punched into the upper echelon of heavyweight contenders.
A future fight with Lewis would be too much fun to turn down, provided the Beast gets past Travis Browne during their scheduled fight at UFC Fight Night 105 on February 19.
All in all, this weekend Ngannou might cement his position as the brightest star in a division that always seems hungry for any sort of good news.
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