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UFC Middleweight bout:  Vitor Belfort vs. Anthony Johnson

Odds: (-145 Belfort / +115 Johnson )

Betting Pick: Belfort

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In the semi-main event, up and comer Anthony “Rumble” Johnson will jump right into the deep end of the Middleweight division as he squares off against feared Brazilian striker Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort. Johnson struggled continually to make weight as a Welterweight, so 185 should be a much more natural division for him, but that may not matter against a striker of Belfort’s caliber. Johnson will definitely be looking to overpower Belfort with takedowns and grind this one out from on top, but Belfort’s ground game is fairly formidable and he has the tools to destroy Johnson standing, so this is going to be a tough Middleweight debut for “Rumble”.

Anthony “Rumble” Johnson is a very physically impressive wrestler who is making his debut as a Middleweight. He was trying to cut way too much to make 170 pounds, and as often as not could not meet his mark, so a move to 185 is a smart career decision for him. At 170, Johnson’s size and strength were his best attributes. Obviously he is not going to be as oversized at Middleweight, but he will also benefit from not cutting so much weight and depleting himself. I think at a more natural weight, Johnson’s strength will really shine, and his wrestling is still going to be tough for people to deal with. He is going to have to be smart and effective with setting up his takedowns, because on the feet he doesn’t have the speed, power, technique, or chin he would need to hang with Belfort for long. Securing takedowns won’t assure Johnson a win, but it will give him a chance, something he doesn’t have if this turns into a kickboxing match.

Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort is a UFC legend who has proven repeatedly that he is still one of the most formidable Middleweight strikers in the world. His hand speed, technique, accuracy, and power are all world class, and against “Rumble” he will enjoy a huge advantage in all of those categories. Belfort is also a pretty good wrestler with very underrated jiu-jitsu, but considering Johnson’s size and wrestling ability I don’t think Belfort will be looking to grapple at all. Instead, he will smartly press his advantage on the feet, moving toward Rumble aggressively and making him backpedal so that he can’t set up his takedowns.

This is a brutal fight for Johnson. For the first time he is fighting a guy who he isn’t substantially larger than, and a guy who is more than capable of testing his suspect chin. I don’t think Johnson’s wrestling is good enough to ground Belfort for three rounds and I don’t think his defense is good enough to keep him alive standing. Belfort will pick Johnson apart on the feet and ultimately put him away with strikes. Belfort by T/KO.

Prediction: Vitor “The Phenom” Belfort by second round T/KO.

Note: Johnson started around a +105 Dog and is now the favorite. Well now after his weight issues he is at +115 Odds.

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UFC Lightweight bout:  Sam Stout vs. Thiago Tavares

Odds: (-115 Stout /-115 Tavares )

Betting Pick: Stout

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In a featured Lightweight matchup, submission wiz Thiago Tavares will square off against heavy-handed slugger Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout in a classic striker versus grappler matchup. This is an interesting matchup not only because the two guys excel in different areas, but because each of their strengths are perfectly suited to exploit the other’s weaknesses. Stout’s aggressive, heavy-handed slugging is going to give the notoriously glass-jawed Tavares fits, and Tavares’ ultra-technical ground game will confound Stout, whose ground game pretty much consists of getting punched and standing up.

Thiago Tavares is a very talented submission grappler whose inability to take a punch or strike effectively has made him an inconsistent performer. Tavares has great submissions from every position, but he is not a dominant wrestler who can force opponents to fight his fight and he isn’t a competent enough striker to keep himself alive while he is unable to get fights down. Against Stout he is going to have to find a way to get this fight down, because Stout has more than enough punching power to exploit Tavares’ glass jaw. On the ground Tavares will wrap Stout up and control him from any position, so finding a way to take Stout down has to be his biggest priority if he wants to avoid another disappointing loss.

Sam “Hands of Stone” Stout is a tough, experienced brawler with an aggressive style and good power punching. He isn’t always the most consistent fighter, but he is durable, heavy-handed, and brings the fight to his opponents. He will be able to destroy Tavares standing, both in terms of technique and power. As long as he can stop Tavares’ anemic takedowns, Stout has all the tools to make it two knockout wins in a row.

This is going to be a tough fight for Tavares. He can’t box and he can’t really wrestle either, which really makes his top-notch submissions pretty useless. Stout is hardly a bastion of takedown defense, but he’s good enough to keep this fight standing, and he will have his way with Tavares on the feet. Stout by T/KO.

Prediction: Sam Stout by second round T/KO.

To add  a little more excitement on fight night, you can bet on this fight at Bodog.com Odds. Check out my review of Bodog here…

Below you can use our Odds Calculator to check your potential winnings.