(Well, you can’t say he didn’t warn you. / Photo courtesy of Getty Images. Click for full-size version.)
According to a Yahoo! Sports report, Saturday’s UFC on FOX 5 broadcast averaged 4.4 million viewers, with viewership climbing steadily through the night until it peaked at a hearty 5.7 million sets of eyeballs for the main event of Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz.
Although total viewership still fell short of the first two UFC on FOX offerings, the 4.4 million average for “Henderson vs. Diaz” nearly doubled the audiences of the last two FOX broadcasts, which both averaged just 2.4 million viewers apiece. More importantly, “Henderson vs. Diaz” was television’s most-watched broadcast on Saturday night among males 18-34, males 18-49, adults 18-34, and adults 18-49. As Dana White told Yahoo!: “We just killed it. We killed it in every demo.”
(Well, you can’t say he didn’t warn you. / Photo courtesy of Getty Images. Click for full-size version.)
According to a Yahoo! Sports report, Saturday’s UFC on FOX 5 broadcast averaged 4.4 million viewers, with viewership climbing steadily through the night until it peaked at a hearty 5.7 million sets of eyeballs for the main event of Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz.
Although total viewership still fell short of the first two UFC on FOX offerings, the 4.4 million average for “Henderson vs. Diaz” nearly doubled the audiences of the last two FOX broadcasts, which both averaged just 2.4 million viewers apiece. More importantly, “Henderson vs. Diaz” was television’s most-watched broadcast on Saturday night among males 18-34, males 18-49, adults 18-34, and adults 18-49. As Dana White told Yahoo!: “We just killed it. We killed it in every demo.”
“The 5.7 million viewers drawn by the main event would rank it behind only five UFC fights in history: [#1] the record-breaking Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos fight on November 12, 2001, which did 9.6 million viewers between FOX and Fox Deportes; [#3] the Oct. 10, 2006, Ken Shamrock vs. Tito Ortiz fight on Spike, which did 6.5 million viewers; [#5] the Jan. 28, 2012, Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis fight on FOX and Fox Deportes, that did 6.4 million viewers; [#6] the Sept. 30, 2009, taped fight on the Ultimate Fighter reality show with Kimbo Slice vs. Roy Nelson, which did 6.1 million viewers on Spike; and [#8] the Sept. 8, 2007, taped fight from England pitting Dan Henderson vs. Rampage Jackson for the light heavyweight title, which did 5.8 million viewers on Spike.
The only other fights it trailed were Kimbo Slice fights on CBS with James Thompson[#2: 7.281 million viewers] and Seth Petruzelli[#4: 6.451 million viewers], and the first Robbie Lawler vs. Scott Smith fight [#7: 5.867 million viewers], which aired before Slice vs. Thompson on the first Elite XC show on CBS in 2008.
However, if you add in Spanish language viewership in the U.S. on Fox Deportes, numbers which are not available at press time, the total audience should top 6 million and move to either the No. 6 or No. 7 slot.”
In the past, Henderson has underperformed as a pay-per-view draw, but a brilliant fight against Diaz in front of a massive network audience might change all that. Can Bendo become the UFC’s next breakout star?
If you’re anything like me, there were a couple times during Saturday’s UFC on Fox telecast where you angrily shouted at the television. I wasn’t upset at a favorite fighter getting beaten or even vainly yelling out instructions per the common ridiculous spectator custom.
No, I, and perhaps you as well, got upset when Fox repeatedly cut away from the action to show a long overhead shot of an empty UFC Octagon. As Maggie Hendricks at Yahoo! Sports confirmed, those cut-aways were not technical goof ups. “[Nate] Diaz threw up the middle finger at his opponent, and the network cut away instead of risking a fine from the Federal Communications Commission,” Hendricks wrote on her CageWriter blog.
One of the gestures came while Diaz was working for a heel-hook on Benson Henderson, who was sitting in a near full-split position on the canvas. The champion was unfazed by Diaz’s gestures as he had prepared for the Stockton native’s tactics, both physical and psychological.
“It’s something I actually had a little bit of a hard time with, but once my training partners got together, they all started talking crap to me in the middle of sparring and I’d get angry,” Henderson revealed on Fuel TV’s post fight show. “They helped control it and I did a pretty good job of being very focused and not letting that affect my emotional state in the middle of the fight.”
So, what’s all the fuss been about on the net since then? On Yahoo’s front page, Hendricks’s story was linked to with the headline, “Fighter’s tasteless moves rattle television broadcast.” Yes, the network that has brought us Cops, Temptation Island and The Simple Life was “rattled” and nearly brought to its sweet, innocent knees by Nate Diaz‘s tactical posturing during his fight.
If you’re anything like me, there were a couple times during Saturday’s UFC on Fox telecast where you angrily shouted at the television. I wasn’t upset at a favorite fighter getting beaten or even vainly yelling out instructions per the common ridiculous spectator custom.
No, I, and perhaps you as well, got upset when Fox repeatedly cut away from the action to show a long overhead shot of an empty UFC Octagon. As Maggie Hendricks at Yahoo! Sports confirmed, those cut-aways were not technical goof ups. ”[Nate] Diaz threw up the middle finger at his opponent, and the network cut away instead of risking a fine from the Federal Communications Commission,” Hendricks wrote on her CageWriter blog.
One of the gestures came while Diaz was working for a heel-hook on Benson Henderson, who was sitting in a near full-split position on the canvas. The champion was unfazed by Diaz’s gestures as he had prepared for the Stockton native’s tactics, both physical and psychological.
“It’s something I actually had a little bit of a hard time with, but once my training partners got together, they all started talking crap to me in the middle of sparring and I’d get angry,” Henderson revealed on Fuel TV’s post fight show. “They helped control it and I did a pretty good job of being very focused and not letting that affect my emotional state in the middle of the fight.”
So, what’s all the fuss been about on the net since then? On Yahoo’s front page, Hendricks’s story was linked to with the headline, “Fighter’s tasteless moves rattle television broadcast.” Yes, the network that has brought us Cops, Temptation Island and The Simple Life was “rattled” and nearly brought to its sweet, innocent knees by Nate Diaz‘s tactical posturing during his fight.
Look, Fox had the right and good sense to use their seven-second delay and cut away from Diaz giving Henderson the finger to try and avoid FCC fines. Nothing wrong with that. But there’s also nothing particularly wrong with Nate Diaz doing what he did. I’ll go out on a limb and say that Diaz would not have flipped the bird if he had been beating up on Henderson at the time, instead of losing the bout. He and his brother Nick routinely use taunts to try and unnerve and goad opponents into getting reckless, making mistakes, creating openings and thereby allowing the Diaz bros a chance to turn the tide.
Is the move “classy” or in “good taste?” No, of course not. Neither is trying to knock another human being out senseless or tear their limbs apart. But this is where we find ourselves on fight nights, ‘nation. Grown, trained and skilled fighters go to battle and there’s nothing particularly offensive about them doing whatever they can, short of cheating, to beat their opponent. If they can use psychological tricks to mess with their opponents’ heads, more power to them.
Ben Henderson could not be disrupted by Diaz’s little middle finger trick on fight night, and he dominated en route to defending his lightweight title. His superior mental fortitude is just one of the many reasons he’s the champ.
Now all this doesn’t mean that mainstream media critics won’t use isolated incidents like this one to try and paint the sport of MMA in a negative light. But that doesn’t mean that we should care that they do.
We won’t go into exhaustive detail about the merits of fight sports in comparison to more culturally accepted sports where, for example, people drive veritable missiles around a track at two hundred miles per hour and all too often kill one another, or where behemoths line up opposite one another and smash each other’s heads play after play for sixty minutes. I will say, however, that the sport of MMA needn’t fear a comparative analysis of the character of its athletes to those in other sports.
We’ve all seen the horribleheadlines over the past two weeks involving professional athletes. If MMA’s worst recent offering is Nate Diaz extending out one of his fingers, I’d say that’s not too bad.
(Sometimes I look at Nate Diaz and think, “y’know, there’s a guy who probably hasn’t heard the Good News about Jesus Christ.” / Photo via CombatLifestyle. For more photos from this set, click here.)
Old legends and young lions. Guys with angel wings on their backs and guys with middle fingers in your face. Hot-headed blood lickers, and reasonable folks who understand the health risks of such behavior. It’s UFC on FOX 5 — a card so good that you don’t even need lazy storylines to sell it.
Running our “Henderson vs. Diaz” liveblog is New Jersey Martial Arts Hall of Fame inducteeJim Genia(congrats Jim!), who will be throwin’ down live results from the FOX main card after the jump beginning at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and toss your own thoughts and observations in the comments section.
(Sometimes I look at Nate Diaz and think, “y’know, there’s a guy who probably hasn’t heard the Good News about Jesus Christ.” / Photo via CombatLifestyle. For more photos from this set, click here.)
Old legends and young lions. Guys with angel wings on their backs and guys with middle fingers in your face. Hot-headed blood lickers, and reasonable folks who understand the health risks of such behavior. It’s UFC on FOX 5 — a card so good that you don’t even need lazy storylines to sell it.
Running our “Henderson vs. Diaz” liveblog is New Jersey Martial Arts Hall of Fame inducteeJim Genia(congrats Jim!), who will be throwin’ down live results from the FOX main card after the jump beginning at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and toss your own thoughts and observations in the comments section.
What up, spuds. ‘Tis I, Jim Genia. Here are the results from the undercard:
-Yves Edwards def. Jeremy Stephens via KO (Punches) at 1:55, Round 1
-Raphael Assuncao def. Mike Easton via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
-Ramsey Nijem def. Joe Proctor via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
-Daron Cruickshank def. Henry Martinez via KO (Kick) at 2:57, Round 2
-Abel Trujillo def. Marcus LeVesseur via TKO (Knees) at 3:56, Round 2
-Dennis Siver def. Nam Phan via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-25, 30-24)
-Scott Jorgensen def. John Albert via Submission (Rear Naked Choke) at 4:59, Round 1
And now, the main card, which is probably the best selection of fights Zuffa has ever given to FOX for airing for free.
First up, Matt Brown vs. Mike Swick:
You know and love Swick from his time on the seminal TUF season and the years of beatings both given and received in the Octagon. You know Brown for pretty much the same thing, although his coming out party was at TUF 7. We’ve seen them bang in impressive fashion, but Father Time has got to be taking his toll these grizzled dudes, so the question is: who’s still got enough grit left to pull out the win?
Round 1: After about 30 seconds of feeling each other out, Swick and Brown begin taking turns lunging in and winging punches. Neither really connects though, so Brown grabs one of his opponent’s legs and dumps him on the canvas, and works into side-control. From there Brown slips on a tight-as-hell D’Arce choke. Swick is stuck defending the technique while in Brown’s guard. He guts his way out of it, but not long after Brown has him in an even tighter triangle choke. Somehow, some way, Swick survives, and with 3o seconds left they get back to their feet and pepper each other with short punches and knees from the clinch. Ding, end of round.
Round 2: Brown comes out and starts Muay Thai-ing the crap out of Swick, which is weird because doesn’t Swick live in Thailand or something? Anyway, what can Brown do for you? I dunno, but for Swick it’s elbows and knees and some smothering clinch-work. Swick seems to fade fast, and while he’s walking backwards, Brown tags him with a left hook on the chin and a right hand in the grill, and Swick is out and probably dreaming of a better Pad Thai than you and I will ever know.
Matt Brown def. Mike Swick via KO (Punches) at 2:31, Round 2
Next, BJ Penn vs. Rory MacDonald:
What more can I say about Penn that hasn’t been said? The man’s a legend, he’s accomplished more in the sport than most can ever dream of, and when he bleeds, he bleeds grape-flavored Hawaiian Punch. MacDonald is supposedly one of the next big things, but screw that. BJ, dispatch this clown.
Round 1: Penn comes straight across the cage and goes for a takedown. MacDonald shrugs it off, and from his upper-body control, it becomes apparent that his size and height advantage is going to make it hard for Penn to move him around. They two create some space, and for the next two minutes MacDonald uses his reach to land some low kicks, a high-kick to the head that the former lightweight- and welterweight champ shrugs off, some jabs and elbows. Penn gets some good licks in, but it’s almost all MacDonald, and the young upstart wobbles the Hawaiian with an elbow with about 45 seconds left in the round. They make it to the bell, but yeesh, Penn is getting hurt.
Round 2: MacDonald stalks Penn into the cage, and with jabs and kicks, begins to have his way with him. Penn doesn’t circle, doesn’t really move his head, and aside from a right hand here and there, he’s a sitting duck. MacDonald cracks him to the body with a kick at the midway mark of the round, and Penn nearly crumbles, staying upright only to eat more painful body blows. With 38 seconds in the frame MacDonald grabs Penn and dumps him onto the canvas, and he feeds him short punches until the bell.
Round 3: Penn comes close with a single-leg takedown right out of the gate, but MacDonald gets out of it and tries to hug him to death against the cage. Referee Herb Dean seperates them, and MacDonald resumes hurting Penn with strikes from the outside. With all the confidence in the world, MacDonald shuffles his feet and throws question-mark kicks, Superman punches and just about anything else he wants, and all Penn can do is walk around and take it. And then the bell sounds and it’s all over, and I go to my room and cry.
Rory MacDonald def. BJ Penn via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)
Next, Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and Alexander Gustafsson:
Shogun was, at one time, one of the best in the world. Now he’s a walking pile of barely connected bones, ligaments and aged muscles. Will the big Swede striker be the one to finally make the Brazilian collapse into a heaps of twisted flesh in the cage?
Round 1: Apparently Shogun watched Penn’s fight on the monitor backstage and said “I ain’t going out like that.” Within the first 30 seconds of the bout Gustafsson sends him to the canvas on his butt, but Shogun swivels into a heelhook attempt that the Swede has to seriously work to get out of – and when he does, the former PRIDE and UFC champ almost takes his back and manages to land a sweet knee to the chops when they’re against the fence. They make some space and throw strikes, with Shogun opting to cover up, eat whatever his opponent throws so he can wade in and land something himself. It’s a dangerous ploy, and he winds up bleeding from his nose – but still very much in the game – by the time the round ends.
Round 2: Winging overhand rights and lefts, Shogun re-establishes himself as a threat to the taller fighter. Gustafsson almost hip tosses him two minutes in, but a flubbed takedown attempt soon after has Shogun on his back regardless. They work back to their feet and Gustafsson nails two takedowns and bangs his foe up with some ground and pound, and when Shogun stands the taller fighter just blasts him, wobbling him with knees and punches. The bell sounds with Shogun that much worse for wear.
Round 3: Gustafsson resumes dinging Shogun up, and when Shogun fights back with more overhand rights, the Swede takes him down and tries to work him over there. They get back to their feet and the dance continues, with Shogun trying to land that big money shot and Gustafsson alternating between strikes from outside and successful takedowns. About midway through the round Gustafsson lands a shot to Shogun’s liver, which turns the Brazilian into the Walking Dead while Gustafsson lands whatever he wants. A front kick to the face, jabs, and takedowns – Gustafsson does it all, and time expires with Shogun on the bottom and fighting like maybe he should have retired a year and a half ago.
Alexander Gustafsson def. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Next, Benson Henderson vs. Nate Diaz:
Henderson won the UFC lightweight title by narrowly defeating Frankie Edgar, and reiterated his claim to the belt by defeating Edgar in another close fight and razor-thin decision. Diaz ain’t about that life, though. Diaz will beat you up in the parking lot, kiss your girl and smoke your pot, and there’s nothing you can do about it so you might as well start packing your bong now, son. Ahem.
Round 1: Henderson wastes no time throwing kicks to Diaz’s legs, and Diaz wastes no time taunting him and tying him up against the cage. They trade knees while jockeying for advantage, and this goes on for about two minutes. Diaz makes some distance and lands an elbow, and Henderson manages two takedowns and some hard ground and pound. The fine upstanding citizen from Stockton gets back to his feet, but he remains open to leg-kicks, and Bendo drops him with one. Diaz is up again, and the round expires with the two pressed up against the cage.
Round 2: The champ muscles the challenger to the mat about 30 seconds into the round, and when Diaz rises, he throws a kick to the head that Diaz barely blocks. They wrestle a bit on the feet, and when they seperate the two trade some strikes and it almost seems like the TUF winner is starting to find his boxing groove. But no, Henderson resumes kicking the crap out of his leg, than drops him with a knuckle sandwich and pounds on him. Diaz survives, gets vertical and scores with a sweet judo throw, but Henderson scrambles back up and continues his dominance.
Round 3: Henderson opens up with another leg-kick, Diaz answers back with some of his bread and butter punches, and at a minute in the champ hits a takedown and drops bombs. Back on their feet and then another takedown, and it’s clear Diaz’s guard is ill-equipped to deal with the heat Henderson brings from above. Diaz rolls and works into a leglock attempt that morphs into a toehold. Henderson expertly escapes, fends off another heelhook attempt, and when they stand once more Bendo drops Diaz with a right hand. With time running out, Henderson lands an axe-kick to Diaz’s body, and then the bell sounds.
Round 4: Henderson gets a takedown against the fence about 35 seconds into the round, batters Diaz whenever Diaz turtles, and repeats the whole process when they get back up. The Cesar Gracie black belt has maybe one half-ass kimura attempt and heelhook attempt, but that’s it, and you have to wonder if Diaz should maybe consider moving down to 145 pounds.
Round 5: They’re up against the cage early, and with 3:30 left on the clock Henderson hoists Diaz up and slams him like a pimp shaking down one of his hookers. Diaz scores with one hip throw, but the champ scrambles to safety, and other than that one brief moment of brilliance, the challenger is nothing more than a grappling dummy that curses a lot. And then time runs out and it’s all over.
Benson Henderson def. Nick Diaz via Unanimous Decision (50-43, 50-45, 50-45)
(Oh yeah, they’ll be plenty of this. And we definitely don’t mean the “thoughts” part.)
With a lineup that would challenge any UFC pay-per-view event in recent memory, UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz will come storming into your living rooms tomorrow night at 8 p.m. EST. You know what that means for tonight — some dudes are going to mean mug and possibly shove some other dudes that hopefully weigh-in at the same weight as the first dudes. Confused? Then join us after the jump and we’ll sort this all out for you, and make sure to swing by tomorrow at 8 p.m. to catch our liveblog of all the action!
(Oh yeah, they’ll be plenty of this. And we definitely don’t mean the “thoughts” part.)
With a lineup that would challenge any UFC pay-per-view event in recent memory, UFC on FOX 5: Henderson vs. Diaz will come storming into your living rooms tomorrow night at 8 p.m. EST. You know what that means for tonight — some dudes are going to mean mug and possibly shove some other dudes that hopefully weigh-in at the same weight as the first dudes. Confused? Then join us after the jump and we’ll sort this all out for you, and make sure to swing by tomorrow at 8 p.m. to catch our liveblog of all the action!
Main Card (FOX)
Benson Henderson (154.6) vs. Nate Diaz**(155.6)
Maurício Rua (205) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (205.4)
B.J. Penn (168.2) (Author’s note: ?!) vs. Rory MacDonald (170.2)
Mike Swick (170) vs. Matt Brown (170.2)
Preliminary Card (FX)
Jeremy Stephens (155.8) vs. Yves Edwards (155)
Raphael Assuncao***(136.4) vs. Mike Easton (135)
Nam Phan (145.4) vs. Dennis Siver (146)
Ramsey Nijem (155.4) vs. Joe Proctor (154.6)
Daron Cruickshank (155) vs. Henry Martinez* (158.8)
Preliminary Card (Facebook)
Scott Jorgensen (135.2) vs. John Albert (136)
Abel Trujillo (155.4) vs. Marcus LeVesseur (155.4)
*Martinez was given two hours to make 156. He decided not to and forfeited 20% of his purse.
**Diaz has to lose .6. On his second attempt, he reached 155.2, but still has two hours to drop the additional weight. Diaz hit the mark on his third try. Whew.
(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)
UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?
Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.
The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.
It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”
(Staredowns from yesterday’s press conference, via MMAFighting. BJ is in amped-up savage-mode, and Bendo is just *daring* Diaz to pull some of his crazy shit again.)
UFC on Fox 5 is one of the most stacked cards of the entire year, and it’s free on network television. It contains a pseudo-grudge match between the only man in UFC history to hold the lightweight and welterweight titles, and a rising star who trains with his greatest rival. The co-main event sees a PRIDE legend and one-time UFC champ looking to reclaim his former glory in yet another epic war against a rising contender from a burgeoning MMA scene in Scandanavia. And in the main event, you have the two best lightweights in the world (besides Frankie Edgar) going head to head in the toughest division in the UFC. What more could you ask for?
Well, if the answer to that rhetorical question was “the most brilliant predictions/pre-fight analysis column ever,” then you are in luck, my friend! And because this card is so stacked, there will be not one, not two, not three, but…actually no, there will be three predictions. (Sorry Mike Swick and Matt Brown.) Logophobes, you’ve been warned.
The first of the big three fights on the card is the highly anticipated matchup between a returning BJ Penn and wunderkind Rory MacDonald. Penn’s seeking to reinforce his legacy as one of the best ever in the sport, and Rory’s been giving him even more motivation recently, claiming he’s coming to “hurt [Penn]” who he believes is “fighting for the wrong reasons.” Bold words, but MacDonald’s the type of fighter who’s capable of backing them up. He’s only lost once in his career — a TKO loss to Carlos Condit, in which he won the first two rounds before getting stopped in the waning seconds of the final round. But he holds wins over Nate Diaz and Mike Pyle, and aside from the former, all of MacDonald’s victories have come by stoppage.
It should be noted, though, that aside from Condit, Penn is a stronger fighter at this weight than any of the other fighters mentioned. He presents a greater knockout threat than any of them, has better wrestling, and has one of, if not the, best top games of any grappler in the UFC. However, Penn has historically been weak in the cardio department, particularly at welterweight. Even though he looks to be in excellent shape, he’s still carrying more weight than usual, and he’ll be forced to carry MacDonald’s weight as well. While Penn’s revamped his training camp, it’s unlikely he’ll have been able to fix a career-long deficiency, particularly after returning from “retirement.”
All of which is to say, Penn should find success in the first round, much like his first fight against St. Pierre and his last fight against Nick Diaz. He may manage to knock Rory out or submit him should he manage to hurt him on the feet. But come the second and third rounds, expect Rory to begin imposing his size and cardio on Penn, pressuring him into the fence, securing takedowns and working constant ground and pound. A finish isn’t likely — Penn’s durability is renowned — but BJ has historically not been impressive off of his back without a gi. Should Rory secure a takedown, it’s unlikely Penn will be able to threaten him to the extent necessary to submit or sweep him. This, in turn, will allow MacDonald to work his offense and come out with a unanimous decision victory, albeit one that does not live up to his promise to truly “hurt” The Prodigy.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua will face Alexander Gustafsson in the co-main event, in what is now promised to be a #1 contender’s match, and will almost assuredly be a changing of the guard in the light heavyweight division. I hate to admit that, because I’ve always been a fan of Shogun throughout his career, and even got to see him win the UFC title in Montreal. But facts are facts; he hasn’t been the same since that fight. (Undergoing a third major knee surgery following the fight might have something to do with it.) Shogun’s best weapons have always been his kicks, in no small part because they pack ungodly amounts of power. (2749 pounds of force, to be specific.) But in his fights with Jon Jones, Forrest Griffin, Dan Henderson and Brandon Vera, he’s abandoned them. It’s impossible to know why, although it’s fair to assume the accumulated damage to his knees have something to do with it.
This leaves his boxing as his focal standup technique, and Shogun’s boxing leaves much to be desired. He virtually never jabs, and most of his punches adhere to the Wanderlei Silva philosophy of berserker-rushing opponents. Which, in case you’re unaware, doesn’t do fighters any favors as they age and their reflexes slow. As a result, Shogun’s been hit hard and rocked in three of his last four fights. Even if he’s tough as nails, a human being can’t continue to take that amount of punishment. And a fighter certainly can’t expect to win if that keeps happening.
Now, he’s facing an opponent with an absurdly long reach and solid wrestling ability. Much like Jones, Shogun’s going to have a difficult time closing the distance between himself and Gustafsson. But unless he brings his kicks back, he’ll need to do that if he wants to win. Because if he doesn’t, Gustafsson’s just going to use his excellent jab to pick Shogun apart from the outside, and possibly hurt him if Shogun gets desperate and rushes in. The wild card at play here is if Shogun can get the fight to the ground — he’s got underrated jiu jitsu, and is a legitimate threat to submit Gustafsson. Sadly, that probably won’t happen. Gustafsson should take this by unanimous decision. If Rua is rocked for the fourth time in five fights, as odd as it sounds, he might have to begin thinking about retirement. He doesn’t want to run the risk of ending up like his brother.
Finally, Benson Henderson will defend his lightweight title against Nate Diaz in the main event. It’s extraordinarily difficult to pick a winner between these two. Nate’s clearly got superior boxing, but Henderson’s kicks are far more potent. Henderson’s wrestling is stronger than Diaz’s, but Diaz has an incredibly active guard. Henderson has amazing submission defense. But so did Jim Miller. Both have excellent cardio, although Diaz probably has the advantage there. It’s an incredibly even matchup, and it’s almost impossible to discern exactly how this fight will play out.
However, there are two scenarios that are more likely than the others. In the first, Henderson takes advantage of the fact that Diaz is absolutely terrible at checking leg kicks and wallops his lead leg for the majority of the fight, circling out when Diaz gets too close for comfort, just like Condit did to Nate’s older brother. Henderson may occasionally mix in a low-risk takedown towards the end of the rounds, and will make an effort to bully Nate into the fence whenever he gets the opportunity. It wouldn’t be the most exciting fight, but it would get the job done for Henderson, who would finally be able to get his first legitimate title defense under his belt. (Sorry Henderson fans, Frankie Edgar won that second fight. Don’t even try to argue.)
But that’s not how I suspect this will go down. Diaz will come forward, press Henderson with punches, and just when he sees Henderson’s about to lose his cool, he’ll flip off Henderson’s mom. Henderson will fly into a rage and open himself up for a counter, which Diaz will exploit. Alright, perhaps it won’t be quite that dramatic, but that’s going to be Diaz’ strategy. He wants to piss Henderson off and get him to play his game — volume punching, clinching, awkward takedowns, etc. I think Henderson’s susceptible to engaging in that kind of reckless behavior; just look at his fight with Clay Guida, or how he opted to stand with Anthony Pettis the entire time instead of using his superior wrestling. Ben Henderson’s a guy who likes to prove a point in his fights. The problem is you don’t want to prove a point against the Diaz brothers. Ben Henderson’s going to find that out the hard way. Diaz by submission, round 3.
Can you guys imagine what the MMA landscape will be like if Nate Diaz is able to defeat Ben Henderson on Saturday, thus becoming the lightweight champion? For starters, this article will be the first and last time you ever see the word “thus” in a sentence where the subject is a Diaz, but on the grander scale, just try and imagine the ways a Diaz with a belt will throw a wrench into the UFC’s plans. Interviews snippets will be so short and incoherent that MMA writers will be forced to resort to rambling, ludicrous conspiracy theories just to pass the time. And as for the brand-promoting public appearances that have become the standard for a champion? You can forget about those; we’re talking about a man who once tried to fight a fictional Brazilian character at a Jiu-Jitsu expo for Christ’s sake. If one fan even mentions the Maynard fight around Diaz in public, the UFC will probably have a full-scale riot on their hands.
If you would, just picture Nate Diaz at an anti-bullying seminar for a moment. After showing up 3 hours late and being reluctantly called to the stage, Diaz will deliver a one minute diatribe aimed at America’s “faggoty yoots” who should “just like, yeah, I dunno” before calling out “that bitch Georges,” his eyes never lifting from the linoleum floor. When he is informed that he is in fact the lightweight champion and can’t fight GSP right now, Diaz will declare that he’s “done with this shit” before slapping that stupid ass hat off the school’s gym teacher on his way out the door. Simply put, it will be glorious.
Anyway, MMAInterviews recently asked a bevy of pros including Frankie Edgar, Randy Couture, Gray Maynard, and Donald Cerrone to determine the likelihood of a world in which a Diaz is champion, and believe it or not, the overwhelming majority of them believe it’s something we should start preparing ourselves for.
Part 1 is above and part 2 is after the jump.
Can you guys imagine what the MMA landscape will be like if Nate Diaz is able to defeat Ben Henderson on Saturday, thus becoming the lightweight champion? For starters, this article will be the first and last time you ever see the word “thus” in a sentence where the subject is a Diaz, but on the grander scale, just try and imagine the ways a Diaz with a belt will throw a wrench into the UFC’s plans. Interviews snippets will be so short and incoherent that MMA writers will be forced to resort to rambling, ludicrous conspiracy theories just to pass the time. And as for the brand-promoting public appearances that have become the standard for a champion? You can forget about those; we’re talking about a man who once tried to fight a fictional Brazilian character at a Jiu-Jitsu expo for Christ’s sake. If one fan even mentions the Maynard fight around Diaz in public, the UFC will probably have a full-scale riot on their hands.
If you would, just picture Nate Diaz at an anti-bullying seminar for a moment. After showing up 3 hours late and being reluctantly called to the stage, Diaz will deliver a one minute diatribe aimed at America’s “faggoty yoots“ who should “just like, yeah, I dunno” before calling out “that bitch Georges,” his eyes never lifting from the linoleum floor. When he is informed that he is in fact the lightweight champion and can’t fight GSP right now, Diaz will declare that he’s “done with this shit” before slapping that stupid ass hat off the school’s gym teacher on his way out the door. Simply put, it will be glorious.
Anyway, MMAInterviews recently asked a bevy of pros including Frankie Edgar, Randy Couture, Gray Maynard, and Donald Cerrone to determine the likelihood of a world in which a Diaz is champion, and believe it or not, the overwhelming majority of them believe it’s something we should start preparing ourselves for.
By a final tally of 8 to 3 (with 4 undecided), it appears as if Diaz would be the heavy favorite coming into Saturday’s fight. The most telling pick in my opinion would be that of former champ Frankie Edgar, who you might recall actually beat Ben Henderson at UFC 150 yet was declared the loser (YEAH, I SAID IT). Edgar believes Diaz will lay a good old fashioned 209 curb-stomping on Henderson. The bookies, however, do not share this sentiment, as Henderson is currently a slight favorite hovering around -155.
So we might as well get the obligatory question out of the way: Who do you like for this fight and how, Potato Nation?
