Non-Expert MMA Picks: UFC 164 Edition


(We had no idea what picture to use for this post, but this one seems to work nicely. Be sure to check out Meerkatsu’s shop for plenty of other awesome jiu-jitsu artwork.)

Are “the experts” really more knowledgeable than anyone else in terms of predicting who will win a fight? That’s debatable, to say the least. Today we’re bringing in Adam Touchet – a college football blogger and the most casual of casual MMA fans – to see how his predictions hold up against what will actually happen on Saturday night. Read on for his picks, follow him on Twitter, and check out more of his work at what is possibly the least pretentious college football blog on the Internet, BattleOfTheSun.com.

I’ve spent my tiny broadcasting and show-business career trying to prove that just because you’re on television with a microphone it doesn’t make you an expert. What makes a guy who doesn’t even play a sport an “expert” at it, and what makes the “predictions” of the broadcasters presenting a sporting event to the masses any more valid than its rabid fan base?

Spoiler Alert: Nothing.


(We had no idea what picture to use for this post, but this one seems to work nicely. Be sure to check out Meerkatsu’s shop for plenty of other awesome jiu-jitsu artwork.)

Are “the experts” really more knowledgeable than anyone else in terms of predicting who will win a fight? That’s debatable, to say the least. Today we’re bringing in Adam Touchet – a college football blogger and the most casual of casual MMA fans – to see how his predictions hold up against what will actually happen on Saturday night. Read on for his picks, follow him on Twitter, and check out more of his work at what is possibly the least pretentious college football blog on the Internet, BattleOfTheSun.com.

I’ve spent my tiny broadcasting and show-business career trying to prove that just because you’re on television with a microphone it doesn’t make you an expert. What makes a guy who doesn’t even play a sport an “expert” at it, and what makes the “predictions” of the broadcasters presenting a sporting event to the masses any more valid than its rabid fan base?

Spoiler Alert: Nothing.

My knowledge of MMA is limited to Jim Norton being choked out by almost the entire UFC roster on the Opie & Anthony Show. My knowledge of specific fighters stops at Brock Lesnar and Ken Shamrock. Yeah, that’s right, I’m a Vince McMahon guy (Hi CM Punk!).

So when this fine world-wide-web destination asked me to choose who is walking out of UFC 164 a winner, I was ready to twerk a Miley Cyrus slug trail all over the #ThickeDicke that is Cage Potato. My picks are highly uninformed and shamelessly unfounded. However, “predictions” are conjecture and results are the truth.

Here are my predictions for the pay-per-view matches. I don’t see why I need to Zumba my way through the 17 hour preliminary event because Fox Sports 1 needs to justify its existence to our cable providers. By the way, is this event really being called the “Hometown Throwdown?” <sarcasm> Gee, I wonder why Dana White stopped naming these events </sarcasm>.

Benson Henderson (c) vs. Anthony Pettis

My first impression of Benson Henderson isn’t “Destroyer of Worlds”. He seems like a nice guy and has the appearance of someone who brings interesting conspiracies to The Joe Rogan Experience, and “Smooth” is always an unacceptable nickname for champion. All of my superficial gripes about the champ aren’t nearly as inexcusable as Pettis being the fourth best in the world according to a website whose rankings actually matter. What’s the deal, did someone get a concussion?

Having said all that, Henderson is Korean. I think Koreans are underrated. No, I won’t explain myself further. Zip up your amazingly boss satin tiger jumpsuit, I’m picking Henderson to retain the title.

Frank Mir vs. Josh Barnett

Here’s what I know: Mir beat Brock Lesnar. Has Barnett beaten John Cena or HHH lately? If you can bring me proof, then I could have a case for Josh Barnett.

By the way, how old are these gentlemen? You people wonder why MMA is illegal in Manhattan! Is it even legal, nay, moral, to put two men of a certain age into the cage? Holy crap, get Ray Romano, Scott Bakula & Kevin James on the phone; Men of a Certain Age IN THE CAGE is the no-brainer sequel to Here Comes the Boom. I can’t be bothered with fact-checking and research, because I need to check Scott Bakula’s availability in 2014. Frank Mir wins.

Chad Mendes vs. Clay Guida

Chad Mendes is part of Team Alpha Male. I already feel like he’s threatening my masculinity. Clay Guida doesn’t feel the need to intimidate me as a viewer, so he’s totally got this.

Ben Rothwell vs. Brandon Vera

I tried to learn more about this matchup, but Wikipedia fell asleep before it could try to explain why I should be excited about it. When in doubt, I pick who scares me the most. Ben Rothwell, you look like a grizzled trucker, before the FDA banned gas station amphetamines. You win, sir.

Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier

What kind of uninformed, babbling, self-aggrandizing sports analyst would I be if I didn’t take my hometown hero, Dustin Poirier? That’s my pick, because they’re going to say the name of my city on the TV box!

Do you understand how shameless you can truly be when you just call the elephant in the room? Take note ESPN, if you count your revenue dollars from big NCAA TV contracts while chastising student-athletes for disgustingly trumped-up violations, you won’t look like a bigger dunce than I did trying to predict the outcome of UFC 164.

For actual “expert” advice: Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis II’ Edition

Gambling Addiction Enabler: ‘UFC 164: Henderson vs. Pettis II’ Edition

(The UFC 164 marketing strategy summed up in less than 30 seconds.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa brings us perhaps the most anticipated title rematch in lightweight history when Benson Henderson attempts to remove a stain from his soul against the man responsible for leaving said stain, new/interim #1 contender Anthony Pettis. The preliminary portion of the card may not boast many recognizable names (which is a nice way of saying it’s garbage-ass) but the PPV lineup is a veritable potpourri of grizzled veterans and surging prospects, with a little bit of something for everyone both new and old to MMA.

So come along as we head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and highlight the undercard bout you stand the best chance of banking on as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II. All lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

Undercard bout:

Soa Palelei (+175) vs. Nikita Krylov (-210)

The heavy-handed Australian comes in as the +180ish underdog against Ukrainian (is game to you?) submission specialist and -200 favorite Nikita Krylov. Palelei has a chance to payout early in this fight if he is able to use his striking effectively, but the 16 year age gap between the fighters may prove the difference if Krylov’s is able to sustain the early onslaught from Soa. With this in mind, Palelei has been submitted once in his career and 7 out of his last 8 wins (Well, 6 out of 8. Bob Sapp no longer counts.) have come in the first round. +180 for Palelei is an underdog worth taking.


(The UFC 164 marketing strategy summed up in less than 30 seconds.)

By Dan “Get Off Me” George

This Saturday night, Zuffa brings us perhaps the most anticipated title rematch in lightweight history when Benson Henderson attempts to remove a stain from his soul against the man responsible for leaving said stain, new/interim #1 contender Anthony Pettis. The preliminary portion of the card may not boast many recognizable names (which is a nice way of saying it’s garbage-ass) but the PPV lineup is a veritable potpourri of grizzled veterans and surging prospects, with a little bit of something for everyone both new and old to MMA.

So come along as we head to Milwaukee, Wisconsin and highlight the undercard bout you stand the best chance of banking on as well as all of the main card bouts for UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis II. All lines courtesy of BestFightOdds, per usual.

Undercard bout:

Soa Palelei (+175) vs. Nikita Krylov (-210)

The heavy-handed Australian comes in as the +180ish underdog against Ukrainian (is game to you?) submission specialist and -200 favorite Nikita Krylov. Palelei has a chance to payout early in this fight if he is able to use his striking effectively, but the 16 year age gap between the fighters may prove the difference if Krylov’s is able to sustain the early onslaught from Soa. With this in mind, Palelei has been submitted once in his career and 7 out of his last 8 wins (Well, 6 out of 8. Bob Sapp no longer counts.) have come in the first round. +180 for Palelei is an underdog worth taking.

Main Card:

Dustin Poirier (+135) vs. Erik Koch (-155)

Both fighters are coming off tough losses to high-level competition and will be looking to use the other as a stepping stone back to the short list of top contenders at featherweight. Fighting out of his home town, Koch is the -150 favorite to the +130 Poirier and this line should come closer to even odds by fight time. Poirier has a three inch reach advantage and Koch has battled some injury issues which showed in his second round battering at the hands of Lamas back at UFC on FOX 6. +130 for Poirier to win based on the better price and the fact that he has less question marks hanging over his head going into this fight.

Ben Rothwell (+110) vs. Brandon Vera (-130)

Ben Rothwell is the +100 underdog to -130 Brandon Vera, who is returning to heavy weight after losing while trying to put his mouth piece in against Shogun at UFC on FOX 4. Vera is the right favorite and should be fast enough to get in and out against Rothwell in the early stages of the fight, which should wear out Big Ben as the fight unfolds. If Rothwell cannot find a way to pressure Vera against the cage and put “The Truth” on his back, he may be at the mercy of a technically sound striking clinic. Vera to avoid the takedown and best Rothwell in the stand up game -130.

Chad Mendes (-465) vs. Clay Guida (+370)

-465 for Mendes to have his hand raised at the end of this fight is perhaps worth placing in a parlay, but +115 that Mendes has to win by decision is a compelling prop bet when looking at his opponent. Clay Guida may not be the most threatening fighter out there, but he has fought and survived against top lightweights who pose similar skill sets to that of Mendes. Guida is a survivor and while he may get Clay Guida’d by Chad, he should be able to stay out of range (like he did against Maynard) on the feet and out of trouble on the mat (like he did against Bendo) to avoid losing inside the distance. Mendes to win via decision +115.

Frank Mir (+155) vs. Josh Barnett (-175)

Josh Barnett’s biggest win since 2007 is against Sergei Kharitonov, which really does not inspire confidence when you examine the Warmaster’s steady diet of out grappling one-dimensional competition as of late. Frank Mir is closer to Daniel Cormier than the rest of Josh’s more recent opponents and while he may get put on his back, he is surely going to be difficult to stop from there. +130 that fight goes to decision is where the safest option may be — Barnett is not known for his GnP KO’s or being the victim of a TKO or submission lately. +130 fight goes to a decision.

Benson Henderson (-120) vs. Anthony Pettis (+100)

The bookies firmly believe that lighting will not strike twice. If you look into the prop bets, Pettis is currently +300 to win by decision, but they are far less certain when it comes to whether or not Pettis will be able to win the lightweight title in his home town. Benson Henderson has bounced back well from losing his WEC belt, going on to win the UFC lightweight belt (a.k.a the one that matters) and successfully defending it 3 times now.

Many presume the kick heard round the world was what won Pettis the first encounter, but re-watching this fight, (despite being thoroughly entertained) it is rather evident that Pettis is just as fast as Bendo and the clear cut stronger striker of the two. Henderson may have an advantage in having fought 5 rounds for 4 straight fights now, but Pettis has never showed cardio as an issue in the past and beat Bendo on the cards after five rounds. Pettis at even money to become the new champ and +300 that Pettis wins (in hometown on the cards)…..+500 for the bold ones who think the decision will be unanimous.

Parlay 1
-Mendes + Vera

Parlay 2
-Mendes + Pettis

Parlay 3 (underdog parlay)
-Palelei + Poirier

Props
-Mendes wins via decision
-Barnett/Mir fight goes the distance
-Pettis wins via decision

Please share your thoughts on who you like CP nation. Enjoy the fights and may the winners be yours!

Brandon Vera Believes If TRT Is Good for One Fighter, It Should Be Good for All

The subject of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) continues to be a hot-button subject in MMA, and Brandon Vera has been hit with the questions a lot lately, as he heads into his next fight at UFC 164.
It’s not because Vera has sought out the contr…

The subject of testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) continues to be a hot-button subject in MMA, and Brandon Vera has been hit with the questions a lot lately, as he heads into his next fight at UFC 164.

It’s not because Vera has sought out the controversial treatment, but because his next opponent Ben Rothwell was approved to use TRT heading into their matchup.

Vera doesn’t sound like he’s much of a fan of TRT for his own personal use, but he understands why some fighters might want to use it.

The problem Vera has with TRT is that it’s giving an advantage to some fighters, while others may be suffering through a training camp with naturally low testosterone because that just happens when a fighter is working out and preparing for a bout.

“I think the whole thing with TRT, I understand it, but if it’s good for one, it should be good for all,” Vera said. “I don’t know how that scaling goes or what the testosterone level is and stuff. I know my testosterone level during one camp was at 250 (nanograms per deciliter), but I think you eat up all your testosterone during camp if you’re training two or three times a day.”

While the normal range for testosterone in men is supposed to stay above 300, Vera says his levels dropped below that during a camp, and he’s not suffering from any kind of medical ailment.

At the end of the day, however, Vera isn’t going to make any excuses for or against Rothwell using TRT. He just wants to fight, and leave the TRT discussions up to the state athletic commissions.

“I’m not making the rules,” Vera said. “That’s some political bulls—t.”

Check out the entire interview with Vera as he addresses the TRT discussion as well as his decision to return to the heavyweight division after spending five years as a light heavyweight.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

‘F*ck You Brian Stann’: Brandon Vera Not Impressed With the All-American’s UFC Commentary Debut


(Years of being a Marine have trained him to show no emotion. But on the inside, Brian Stann is sobbing into his Pillow Pet. / Photo via MMAWeekly)

Despite being one of the most likable human beings in the history of this ugly sport, former UFC fighter Brian Stann picked up a very high-profile hater over the weekend. Stann handled color-commentary duties for UFC 163, and his analysis of the Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida co-main event spurred Brandon Vera to fire some shots on Facebook:

@philmrwonderful super awesome job boss…!!!!! U are the man!!! Fuck you @brianstann learn how to be an unbiased commentator bitch. Don’t ?#?hate? cuz he beat Ur ass too!!!

Vera, of course, is a totally unbiased observer, who just happens to be a longtime training partner of Phil Davis. But hey, that’s the drawback of social media — any asshole with an Internet connection can tell you how to do your job.

As you can imagine, Brian Stann is too classy to respond to Vera’s angry insults, but Vera did make a retraction after he cooled off a bit:


(Years of being a Marine have trained him to show no emotion. But on the inside, Brian Stann is sobbing into his Pillow Pet. / Photo via MMAWeekly)

Despite being one of the most likable human beings in the history of this ugly sport, former UFC fighter Brian Stann picked up a very high-profile hater over the weekend. Stann handled color-commentary duties for UFC 163, and his analysis of the Phil Davis vs. Lyoto Machida co-main event spurred Brandon Vera to fire some shots on Facebook:

@philmrwonderful super awesome job boss…!!!!! U are the man!!! Fuck you @brianstann learn how to be an unbiased commentator bitch. Don’t ?#?hate? cuz he beat Ur ass too!!!

Vera, of course, is a totally unbiased observer, who just happens to be a longtime training partner of Phil Davis. But hey, that’s the drawback of social media — any asshole with an Internet connection can tell you how to do your job.

As you can imagine, Brian Stann is too classy to respond to Vera’s angry insults, but Vera did make a retraction after he cooled off a bit:

@BrianStann tho my opinion remains the same my choice of words shoulda been better. For my words I apologize.

Vera then went back on Facebook and asked his followers to share some bullshit comparing New York City’s “If You See Something, Say Something” anti-terrorism campaign to Nazi Germany. So from now on, whenever you see an abandoned backpack in a crowded public place, Just Say Fuck It™.

For those of you who watched UFC 163 on Saturday, what did you think of Brian Stann’s performance in the broadcast booth? And was he more or less “biased” than regular color-man Joe Rogan?

Brandon Vera to Brian Stann: ‘Learn How to Be an Unbiased Commentator B****’

Despite receiving plenty of praise from the masses, UFC heavyweight Brandon Vera thought Brian Stann did an awful job on color commentary at UFC 163 last night, at least during the co-main event of the evening. 
Shortly after Phil Davis, an Allian…

Despite receiving plenty of praise from the masses, UFC heavyweight Brandon Vera thought Brian Stann did an awful job on color commentary at UFC 163 last night, at least during the co-main event of the evening. 

Shortly after Phil Davis, an Alliance MMA teammate of Vera, was announced as the victor in his light heavyweight clash with Lyoto Machida, “The Truth” took to social media to call out Stann

@philmrwonderful super awesome job boss…!!!!! U are the man!!! F*** you @brianstann learn how to be an unbiased commentator bitch. Don’t ‪#‎hate‬ cuz he beat Ur ass too!!!”

Davis defeated Stann back at UFC 109 in February 2010, winning a lopsided decision where “Mr. Wonderful’s” grappling pedigree was on full display.

For whatever its worth, Vera tweeted Stann this morning apologizing for his choice of words: 

Stann, like most media outlets, fans and fighters, seemed to believe that Machida controlled the majority of the action during the 15-minute fight and thought the former 205-pound champ would get the nod. 

However, the three judges scoring the bout disagreed. 

Davis, who entered the co-headlining match up ranked the seventh best light heavyweight in the world, according to the UFC’s official rankings, has now won three straight fights with a solid 12-1(1) overall record. 

Meanwhile, Stann formally announced his retirement from the sport last month after losing three of his past four bouts, citing a desire to spend more time with his family and continue his broadcasting career (via MMA Fighting).

After a 4-4(1) run at light heavyweight, Vera returns to the heavyweight division to take on Ben Rothwell at UFC 164, set for August 31 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. 

Does Vera’s harsh criticism of Stann have any merit or was the outburst completely off-base and uncalled for?

 

John Heinis is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. He is also the MMA Editor for eDraft.com.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com

UFC 164: Brandon Vera vs. Ben Rothwell Fight Is Official for August 31

Following a bad stint at 205 pounds, Brandon Vera is returning to the Octagon at UFC 164 for a heavyweight division battle with Ben Rothwell.MMA Junkie initially reported on Tuesday that the rumored bout was targeted for the upcoming August 31 car…

Following a bad stint at 205 pounds, Brandon Vera is returning to the Octagon at UFC 164 for a heavyweight division battle with Ben Rothwell.

MMA Junkie initially reported on Tuesday that the rumored bout was targeted for the upcoming August 31 card at the Bradley Center in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, but it wasn’t yet known if the match would be made official by UFC brass.

But now, Vera vs. Rothwell is a done deal.

Both fighters have seen some setbacks in their respective MMA careers, but Vera carries the heavy distinction of notching only one win in five fights since November 2009.

Most recently, Vera lost an action-packed brawl against former light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua at UFC on Fox 4, succumbing to punches in the fourth round of their main-event bout.

That sealed a lackluster 1-3-0-1 stretch for Vera, including a single win over retired The Ultimate Fighter alumnus Eliot Marshall, losses to Jon Jones and Randy Couture and another defeat to Thiago Silva—which was later overturned to a “no contest” after Silva failed his urine sample test.

Rothwell‘s record has looked much better by comparison, but he’s also had his fair share of losses.

Despite entering the UFC on a 13-fight winning streak, Rothwell hasn’t put together back-to-back wins since July 2008, with his UFC record standing at 2-3 going into this next match.

It’s also possible that the loser of this bout could be on the cut list, if the UFC’s recent roster trimmings are any indication.

According to Bloody Elbow, Vera made a disclosed $70,000 for his loss to Rua, befitting of a seven-year UFC veteran and former headliner.

Rothwell‘s last reported salary came from UFC 145 (via MMA Fighting), where he made $104,000 in his victory over Brendan Schaub—$52,000 for his base pay and an extra $52,000 for his win bonus, not including an extra $65,000 for his “Knockout of the Night” award.

 


McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist. His work has appeared in NVisionPC World, MacworldGamePro1UP, MMA Mania and The L.A. Times.

Read more MMA news on BleacherReport.com