UFC 309 is now only a couple of days away, and what better way to get hyped for the upcoming pay-per-view than with some MMA News staff predictions?
The event will be available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view on Saturday, November 16, 2024. The main card begins at 10 PM ET, while the preliminary card kicks off at 6 PM ET.
The main event will see heavyweight kingpin Jon Jones defend his title for the first time since capturing it at the expense of Ciryl Gane 20 months ago. To continue reign, “Bones” is tasked with spoiling the ongoing ambitions of returning former champ Stipe Miocic.
Co-headlining will be a former titleholder in Charles Oliveira, who will look to record his first victory of 2024 to book himself another shot at regaining the lightweight gold. In his way will be a familiar foe in Michael Chandler, whom he runs it back with after “Iron” finally moved on from a long-desired clash with Conor McGregor.
Elsewhere on the main card, Bo Nickal gets his toughest test to date opposite formerly ranked submission specialist Paul Craig, Brazilian flyweights Karine Silva and Viviane Araújo battle to advance their title aspirations, and the entertaining Mauricio Ruffy gets his second taste of Octagon action.
UFC 309: MMA News Staff Predictions
Ahead of Saturday’s UFC 309 event, Kyle Dimond, Ryan Jarrell, Thomas Albano, Pranav Pandey and Aakrit Sharma have provided their picks for the five matchups set for the main card.
Below, you can check out the current leaderboard through eight cards.
- Thomas Albano (30-9)
- Ryan Jarrell (25-14)
- Kyle Dimond (22-17)
- Pranav Pandey (13-7)
- Andrew Starc (13-11)
- Aakrit Sharma (9-6)
And with that, it’s time for the team’s predictions for UFC 309.
Welterweight: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Kyle Dimond: Let’s be honest, this fight is here to showcase Ruffy. That performance against Mullarkey earlier this year was incredibly exciting, and I don’t see the winning streak of the Fighting Nerds ending here against an opponent that has lost his first two fights inside the Octagon. It would be a huge moment for Llontop if he does it, but as far as uphill battles go on this card, he may have the steepest one. (Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy)
Ryan Jarrell: Ruffy looked impressive in his UFC debut win over Jamie Mullarkey and kept his 100 percent finishing record in tact with his 10th stoppage win. I just don’t see a path to victory for Llontop in this fight. He is now 0-2 in the UFC, and this matchup stylistically isn’t a good one for him. Ruffy will find Llontop’s chin at some point early in the fight and close the show. (Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy)
Thomas Albano: These are two names from the 2023 season of Dana White’s Contender Series whose time in the UFC has gone in two different directions. Ruffy made his Octagon debut at UFC 301 and made an impact with a strong flying knee KO of Jamie Mullarkey. And though that’s been his only UFC fight to date, he and his team, the Fighting Nerds, have surged in popularity and recognition this year, not only putting up strong performances but also earning key victories as well. Llontop has a cool nickname (“Goku”), but he’s dropped both of his UFC fights this year, and missed weight for one of them in the process.
I’d say more about this fight, but I’ll be blunt and say what this is and what’s going to happen. The UFC is going to continue to push the Fighting Nerds (and I don’t blame them), and this fight is going to be used to give Ruffy and the team another strong, impressive outing. Meanwhile, Llontop moves to 0-3 in the UFC, causing his release (because that’s just the model of their fighter roster at this point). Ruffy is a tough-as-nails finisher, and that will occur again in this outing. (Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy)
Pranav Pandey: At this stage, it would be foolish to bet against a Fighting Nerds standout, so I’m all in on Ruffy and fully aboard the hype train. My pick isn’t just a blind leapof faith — Ruffy truly earned my confidence with his stunning knockout of Mullarkey in promotional debut at UFC 301. With a flawless 100 percent knockout rate in all his victories, the Brazilian has left no doubt that he’s a devastating force in the octagon. I’m confident he’ll dominate every facet of the fight against Llontop. Additionally, with “Goku” stepping in on just two weeks’ notice, it’s hard to see how he can match Ruffy’s intensity. (Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy)
Aakrit Sharma: I believe this to be a fairly easy fight for Ruffy, who’s fighting on a UFC PPV main card for the first time. He’s won all his fights via KO/TKO so far, and he should be able to get the same result this weekend. Ruffy’s a tall lightweight who utilizes his range well and possesses KO power. He’s only lost to Manoel Sausa, which was more or less a result of him not keeping his guard up while striking. Llontop will likely be overwhelmed by his opponent’s pace as well. I hope Ruffy performs spectacularly and gets booked against an exciting striker like Daniel Zellhuber next. (Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy)
Consensus: 5-0 Mauricio Ruffy
Women’s Flyweight: Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva
Kyle Dimond: Araújo has got some good wins on her record but she does tend to lose to the contenders that are climbing the rankings and passing her by. It seems like Silva could be one of those opponents. In 11 UFC fights, Araújo has never been finished, so I think she’ll put up a good fight against Silva but won’t have enough to secure the win. (Prediction: Karine Silva)
Ryan Jarrell: Silva has 17 total finishes and hasn’t lost since 2019. Her well-rounded game will give her the advantage in this fight regardless of where it goes. Araújo is a decision machine, which means she is durable and tough to put away. I expect her to fight out of any real bad spots and survive to lose on the scorecards to Silva. (Prediction: Karine Silva)
Thomas Albano: Silva is looking to continue her rise up the UFC’s women’s flyweight division, while Araújo is looking to break her way back into the upper echelon of contenders. Silva has impressed with a 4-0 Octagon record thus far, taking care of Poliana Botelho, Ketlen Souza, and Maryna Moroz with three first-round submissions. Then, earlier this year, she bested Ariane Lipski da Silva via decision. Silva is developing well into an all-around fighter, and now she gets her toughest test.
Araújo is in the twilight of her career and has lost three of her last five, but she has continued to hold strong, such as with her win over former title challenger Jennifer Maia last year. She has faced some solid competition in her losses, including recent UFC flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former title challenger Amanda Ribas, but there is a sense of concern with the downward momentum she’s on, going up against a woman who is on a nine-fight win streak. Silva has the youth advantage, the speed, the momentum and the skillset all on her side. (Prediction: Karine Silva)
Pranav Pandey: Silva has made an undeniable impact since her UFC debut through Dana White’s Contender Series, securing three back-to-back first-round submission victories. With a dangerous striking game and a knack for finishing fights, she’s quickly become one of the division’s hot prospects. Alternatively, I’m not entirely convinced by Araújo, mainly due to her tendency to be inconsistent in securing victories. Despite being with the UFC since 2019, she has only notched a single knockout win, although her resilience is certainly admirable.
With Silva’s youthful energy and momentum, I believe she’ll smoothly handle this matchup and come out on top. (Prediction: Karine Silva)
Aakrit Sharma: Araújo has been in the UFC for over five years, and despite never losing more than two fights in a row, she’s not been able to win against elite competition. Silva, on the other hand, is riding an impressive nine-fight win streak in her pro career. I believe Silva has all the tools to beat Araújo. She’s been relying a lot on her submission skills lately, securing seven submissions in a row before her last decision win. However, she also boasts KO power and I find it hard to see a path to victory for Araújo. (Prediction: Karine Silva)
Consensus: 5-0 Karine Silva
Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
Kyle Dimond: Many have counted out Craig in the past and been wrong, but when you look at his losses in the UFC, they usually come when he’s unable to get his opponents to the ground, either by taking them down or pulling guard. Though Nickal seems to be suggesting that he will grapple with Craig if he needs to, I think he’ll be able to keep the fight standing, where I think he holds the striking advantage. I’d love for “Bearjew” to shock the world yet again but it seems unlikely if Nickal decides to avoid the grappling altogether. (Prediction: Bo Nickal)
Ryan Jarrell: This will be the stiffest test for the young wrestling phenom to get through, but I do expect him to get the job done. Craig is dangerous on the ground and has a ton of power on the feet. I just think the unreal wrestling acumen that Nickal possesses and his eagerness to bring the fight to his opponents will be the difference. Nickal will wear the veteran down and sink in a submission at some point in round two. (Prediction: Bo Nickal)
Thomas Albano: Time for another step up in competition for Nickal, huh? The UFC is pushing him to be a star for them, and so far, he’s off to a decent start. After a pair of wins on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2022, Nickal has three straight finishes against Jamie Pickett, Val Woodburn, and Cody Brundage. But now presents an opportunity for him to take on a featured name for the first time – and it’s someone who’s a grappling specialist in the man Craig. The problem with this? Craig isn’t the same guy he was just from even just a couple of years ago.
Craig has lost four of his last five, and a pair of those defeats have come when he was bested on the ground. Now you’re going to take this soon-to-be 37-year-old fighter and put him against a young man like Nickal, who has a solid wrestling background and can transition that into strong ground and submission game, while also developing his striking. This doesn’t smell good for “Bearjew.”
This may turn out to be the most impressive that Nickal looks in the Octagon (though maybe his sub-minute finish of Woodburn will have something to say about that), and this fight may leave us wondering where Craig goes from here… (Prediction: Bo Nickal)
Pranav Pandey: On paper, this might look like a bread-and-butter victory for Nickal, but I don’t think it’ll be as easy as the oddsmakers suggest. Nickal’s fighting style is undeniably dominant, bolstered by his impressive NCAA-level wrestling, which makes him a force to be reckoned with. However, don’t sleep on “Bearjew.” Craig may not have Nickal’s wrestling pedigree, but he’s a seasoned veteran with a wealth of experience. He’s battled with some of the best in the octagon, and his submission game is a constant danger — his threats come from every angle.
I believe Craig will present Nickal with a myriad of puzzling challenges, but I have faith that the All-American wrestler will be equipped to handle them and ultimately secure the victory. (Prediction: Bo Nickal)
Aakrit Sharma: I initially had a weird feeling Craig would pull off an unexpected submission like he did against Magomed Ankalaev. However, after rewatching his performance against Brendan Allen, I’m unsure if he’ll be able to survive Nickal’s wrestling. Nickal seems to have decent power in his hands, too, giving Craig another thing to worry
about. After an impressive win streak at light heavyweight, “Bearjew” hasn’t looked the same at middleweight, and Nickal is yet another rough opponent for him. (Prediction: Bo Nickal)
Consensus: 5-0 Bo Nickal
Lightweight: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler 2
Kyle Dimond: This fight is deceptively close I think because Oliveira does get hit and Chandler can finish anyone. That being said, the Brazilian’s recent performances don’t give me the impression that he’s had some kind of steep decline from his championship run. Losing to Islam Makhachev and having a close fight with Arman Tsarukyan are not results that come with red flags. I think Oliveira has the edge, partly because of his strength of schedule, but I am expecting some more wild moments between these two. Ultimately, I just think “Do Bronx” is better right now. (Prediction: Charles Oliveira)
Ryan Jarrell: Chandler looks amazing heading into this fight. He has had a lot of time to work on his body and looks to be in the best shape of his career. He also has a massive chip on his shoulder from the fallout of the elusive Conor McGregor fight that never happened. Chandler is always dangerous and has the ability to finish anyone in the division. But Oliveira is a unique matchup for the heavy-handed striker.
If Chandler wins, I expect it to be an early finish from some big bombs that land. But the safe bet is to lean “Do Bronx” to survive an early onslaught and submit “Iron” Mike. (Prediction: Charles Oliveira)
Thomas Albano: So, at this point, the future of McGregor in the Octagon looks to be up in smoke (at least in my eyes it’s been). Sorry to you, Chandler, for wasting your time chasing him. As an apology gift, you now get an opportunity at revenge against the man you fell just short against at UFC 262 – when you were mere seconds away from scoring a finish and the UFC lightweight title.
This will be Chandler’s first fight since losing to Dustin Poirier in the same venue two years earlier. Oliveira, meanwhile, missed out on a rematch with Makhachev for the UFC lightweight title and then dropped a decision to Tsarukyan at UFC 300. As mentioned, Oliveira and Chandler fought a really competitive outing at UFC 262, with both men having their moments before “Do Bronx” pulled off a comeback, second-round finish to capture the then-vacant championship.
Both of these men are in must-win situations in their own right, with Chandler maybe much more so. He was already in a must-win from the perspective that if he lost, maybe – despite previous claims from UFC CEO Dana White – the fight with McGregor goes up in smoke (if it isn’t already). But now, this is an all-or-nothing situation. If he wins, he gets his revenge and is right back into the lightweight title picture with a potential No. 1 contender’s fight next. A loss? At his age, and those opportunities gone, would there be anywhere for him to go? And unfortunately for Chandler, after this long layoff, and now going against a different (albeit familiar) opponent than the one he’s trained for – and a hungry former champion at that, this doesn’t look great. Second verse, same as the first. (Prediction: Charles Oliveira)
Pranav Pandey: In my opinion, this will be an absolute fireworks show! Honestly, I can’t see this one going the distance — much like their thrilling title fight at UFC 262. That being said, “Iron” is a formidable force in the early moments of a fight, and his confidence is only bolstered by his ability to drop Oliveira in their previous encounter. On the other hand, “Do Bronx” is also no slouch, whether on the feet or on the canvas. His striking has evolved, and if the fight hits the mat, his submission game is always a looming threat.
Should Oliveira successfully navigate Chandler’s early onslaught or endure the storm, there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll find a way to finish him. No disrespect to Chandler, but when his early aggression doesn’t pay off, he often freezes up like a deer in headlights. As the rounds go on, his mistakes become more glaring, and those costly errors have repeatedly snatched victory from his grasp. (Prediction: Charles Oliveira)
Aakrit Sharma: Chandler risked a lot by waiting for McGregor for such a long time, but considering most of his fights are outright brawls, I believe spending over two years away from the Octagon will benefit “Iron.” Him being 38 should not be a factor, and now that he’s committed to winning the UFC lightweight championship, he might fight in a more calculated manner than before.
Oliveira, meanwhile, didn’t hurt his brand despite losing at UFC 300, and he’s still one of the most dangerous lightweights out there. However, I think Chandler will be way too powerful for the Brazilian and should be able to get out of any submissions. “Iron” just needs to avoid adrenaline-sponsored mistakes in this fight, as Oliveira can capitalize on them better than almost anyone.
I highly doubt this fight will go the distance. Even though “Do Bronx” emerged victorious the last time, I feel Chandler will finally have a more careful approach like Justin Gaethje and Francis Ngannou adapted toward the latter parts of their careers. (Prediction: Michael Chandler)
Consensus: 4-1 Charles Oliveira
UFC Heavyweight Title: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic
Kyle Dimond: I really want this fight to be competitive, for Miocic to turn back the clock and really test Jones at heavyweight. Unfortunately, like the vast majority, I struggle to overlook the facts in this one regardless of how good Miocic has been in the past. I will be delighted if it doesn’t go the way that most expect it to, and I do think it’s going to surprise people early on. But I just think the timing of this fight tips the scale massively in Jones’ direction, especially as the fight goes on. (Prediction: Jon Jones)
Ryan Jarrell: I would love to pick Miocic to beat Jones and reclaim the heavyweight throne. But I just don’t see it happening at this point of his career. The former champ is much older now and hasn’t been fighting consistently at all. It’s been three years since Miocic last fought and he didn’t look very good in that fight.
I know there are a lot of people who don’t like Jones for a variety of reasons, but you cannot deny his greatness inside of the Octagon. He is smart to ask for this fight now and not risk losing to Miocic in his prime. At some point, Jones will clip the former champ and end the fight with some vicious strikes. (Prediction: Jon Jones)
Thomas Albano: It’s the fight no one asked for, nobody wants to see, a year-plus removed from when it should have happened, and a whole lot of other slogans and phrases you can attach onto this fight. As a hot take, I don’t mind this main event. It’s perhaps the greatest fighter this sport has ever seen versus the man who ruled over the heavyweight division for the better part of 2016-2020 – the GOAT of the UFC’s heavyweight division. That kind of fight and its stakes speak for itself. I know plenty of people are unhappy with it because of where Tom Aspinall (and Alex Pereira) falls into the picture – but I consider that a separate issue I’ll go into later.
One thing I will give to the detractors – both guys have fought a combined one time (one time) since Miocic lost the heavyweight championship to Francis Ngannou in March 2021. Miocic waited on the sidelines for another title fight to come his way, accepting nothing less (as he did when the Daniel Cormier vs. Brock Lesnar rumors came and went in 2018-19). It took years, but he got his wish. Jones, meanwhile, vacated the light heavyweight title for the final time (we think) in 2020, with the UFC finally giving into his wishes to move up to heavyweight. He took years off to build his body and train correctly and then dominated Ciryl Gane for the championship. Unfortunately, it wasn’t the fight everyone wanted since Ngannou and the UFC parted ways at the start of 2023. Then this fight got delayed after Jones’ torn pec, paving the way for Aspinall to enter the title picture.
Let’s start with the fight itself. Jones has fought plenty of specialists before (be it wrestling, grappling, submissions, etc.). Miocic definitely has KO power in his own right, but Jones has managed to dominate, finish, or sometimes survive (barely) them all since he’s made his UFC debut. Sure, he has that one controversial DQ loss, but those 12-6 elbows are legal now! And wouldn’t it be something if those elbows came out to play in this fight? My point being – Miocic has fought no one before Jones that’s still on the current, active UFC roster. He’s fought no one other than Ngannou or Cormier since 2018. He hasn’t fought since his loss to Ngannou. We’ve seen fighters take long breaks and come out victorious (see GSP, Julianna Peña, and Jones himself), but I just don’t know if Miocic can do that with the limited competition he’s faced over recent years, especially when going up against one of the sport’s greatest fighters ever. Miocic loses this fight easily (I give it about 10 minutes at most) and lays his gloves down.
…And so, too, does Jones. He has teased that this would be his last fight, and it’s honestly a great storybook ending. He finally gets to compete in his birthplace of New York, in the World’s Most Famous Arena, and go out as a heavyweight champion. The problem? How is that fair to Tom Aspinall? As an interim champion, he’s earned the right to try and unify the belt against whoever holds the gold. Sure, he can just be promoted to heavyweight champion, but that feels rather anti-climactic. Jones is even teasing that he’d rather fight light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira. Don’t get me wrong, that’s a legendary fight, but Aspinall is feeling like a side piece in all of this. And I feel bad for him. (Prediction: Jon Jones)
Pranav Pandey: I believe this bout goes beyond the UFC heavyweight title. To me, it’s a showdown between two of the sport’s most legendary figures, and I couldn’t be more hyped for it. Both fighters are entering the Octagon after extended layoffs, with Miocic especially nearing the twilight of his illustrious career. However, this doesn’t mean we should expect either of them to show signs of slowing down.
“Bones”, in particular, has consistently demonstrated the full spectrum of his diverse skillset, proving time and again why he remains one of the most dangerous and well-rounded mixed martial artists the sport has ever seen. Meanwhile, Miocic is arguably the greatest heavyweight to ever step into the UFC Octagon. His fists pack devastating power, a potential trump card for Jones if he’s not careful. On top of that, the former champion possesses remarkable takedown defense, a crucial asset that will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in this high-stakes battle.
When it comes to my prediction, my heart leans toward Miocic, but my mind can’t help but favor Jones. While I believe Miocic will undoubtedly push Jones to the brink and give him one of his toughest challenges, “Bones” possesses a vast array of tools that, in my opinion, just edge him ahead. (Prediction: Jon Jones)
Aakrit Sharma: Unfortunately, many people don’t realize how talented Miocic is. Jones might be one of the best mixed martial artists of all time, but the heavyweight division is a completely new puzzle to solve. The quick win over Ciryl Gane helped “Bones” become the UFC heavyweight kingpin, but he was barely tested and I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s surprised by Miocic’s athleticism and fight IQ.
I don’t expect Jones to shut out Miocic entirely. This should be a competitive fight as Miocic
is one of the most creative heavyweight strikers ever and he boasts powerful grappling too. The only reason I’m picking Jones is because Miocic is way past his prime and he’s likely
just fighting for a huge payday. (Prediction: Jon Jones)
Consensus: 5-0 Jon Jones
That’ll do it for our UFC 309 staff picks! What do you think? Do your picks look similar? Let us know in the comments section! Also, you can check out the full UFC 309 card below.
Main Card:
- Heavyweight Championship Main Event: Jon Jones (C) vs. Stipe Miocic
- Lightweight Co-Main Event: Charles Oliveira vs. Michael Chandler
- Women’s Flyweight: Viviane Araújo vs. Karine Silva
- Middleweight: Bo Nickal vs. Paul Craig
- Lightweight: Mauricio Ruffy vs. James Llontop
Preliminary Card:
- Bantamweight: Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
- Middleweight: Eryk Anders vs. Chris Weidman
- Lightweight: Jim Miller vs. Damon Jackson
- Featherweight: David Onama vs. Roberto Romero
Early Preliminary Card:
- Heavyweight: Marcin Tybura vs. Jhonata Diniz
- Welterweight: Mickey Gall vs. Ramiz Brahimaj
- Welterweight: Bassil Hafez vs. Oban Elliott
- Women’s Flyweight: Veronica Hardy vs. Eduarda Moura
Be sure to keep it right here on MMANews.com for all the results, highlights, and updates on UFC 309!
Continue Reading UFC 309: Jon Jones vs. Stipe Miocic Staff Predictions at MMA News.
