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UFC 188: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Velasquez vs. Werdum Fight Card

Prepare yourself for a bold prediction and an alternative DraftKings lineup. There’s some traditional picks in this five-fighter list, but the boldness begins with the selection of Fabricio Werdum over Cain Velasquez in the main event.Velasquez is the …

Velasquez is the reigning UFC heavyweight champion and has been since December 2012 when he avenged his loss to Junior dos Santos via unanimous decision. It may sound as if Velasquez has had a long reign as champion, but at closer examination the 30-month run has only included two title defenses.

Velasquez brutalized Antonio Silva and then Dos Santos in a third meeting in 2013, but knee injuries forced him to miss all of 2014. In the meantime, due to his inactivity, the UFC had Werdum take on Mark Hunt for the interim title. Werdum beat Hunt with a spectacular flying knee that led to a TKO of the rugged Samoan.

It has all led up to Velasquez’s return to the Octagon and a meeting with Werdum on Saturday in Mexico. From the looks of the DK salaries (Velasquez $11,900 and Werdum $7,500) it’s clear to see which fighter is the guy most expect to win.

Here’s why I’m drafting Werdum:

Werdum not only has a legit chance to win, but I’m predicting he prevails via submission. Velasquez is known for his cardio and ground-and-pound. However, he’s never faced, or likely even had the opportunity to train with, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner on Werdum’s level. The 37-year-old Brazilian has submitted the great Fedor Emelianenko and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his career.

Those are not small accomplishments in the world of grappling. Velasquez can bang for sure, but at some point Werdum is going to force this fight to the ground, and Velasquez’s work rate could ultimately be a negative. Werdum is great at using his opponent’s aggressiveness against them. Velasquez may put himself in a position that leads to a choke and a submission loss to the crafty Brazilian.

Even if Velasquez wins, Werdum’s striking has improved to a point where he won’t generate a zero for you in the fantasy points department. In his last seven rounds—which spans two fights—Werdum is averaging 3.78 significant strikes per minute, per FightMetric.

That accuracy should make him a productive loser if the main prediction doesn’t come true. Here’s a look at my full lineup of fighters for the UFC 188 card.

Tecia Torres ($11,400) vs. Angela Hill

Experience and physical strength is everything in this matchup. Tecia Torres has had five pro fights and her opponent Angela Hill has had just two. In a weight class as young as the women’s strawweight division, three pro fights are like dog years.

Because both Torres and Hill were a part of the Ultimate Fighter Season 20 cast, they are familiar with each other. Torres has gained the reputation as a striker, and she knows Hill has some of the same skills. However, Torres doesn’t seem too worried.

She told MMA Junkie’s Brent Brookhouse: “I know she’s going to come with her muay thai skills, but I feel that I have the better overall experience and I’m just going to be better in every aspect of the fight.”

I believe her and am willing to invest $11,400 of DK salary to prove it.

Eddie Alvarez ($9,100) vs. Gilbert Melendez ($10,300)

On every DK UFC contest, you’re going to have to select a fighter who will probably lose. There’s just not enough salary to go around to take five favorites in most cases. On this card, the guy I’ve tabbed is former Bellator standout Eddie Alvarez.

He takes on Gilbert Melendez in what could be the Fight of the Night.

First and foremost, Alvarez is the pick here because his salary is affordable and helps to facilitate the drafting of other fighters who have a great chance of scoring big. Secondly, if Alvarez loses, it’ll likely be by decision.

Melendez has never stopped an opponent in the UFC and hasn’t scored a victory by TKO or submission since 2011. Alvarez probably isn’t the guy set to be Melendez’s first stoppage victim in the promotion. The former hasn’t been stopped since 2011.

Lastly, Alvarez just might win this fight. This will be his second bout in the UFC, and the pressure is on him to produce with the biggest promotion in the sport. While Melendez is skilled and tough, his lack of elite knockout power could allow Alvarez the freedom to wing a few more shots and score an unexpected victory.

At worst, Alvarez should be one of the event’s most productive losers in a five-round fight that sees both men have their moments.

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UFC 186: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Johnson vs. Horiguchi Fight Card

UFC 186 isn’t the most star-studded card of the year, but that doesn’t mean you can’t win some DraftKings money picking winners. The main event features UFC flyweight champion Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson defending his title against Kyoji Horiguch…

To put it plain: Take the champion. Don’t be scared off by his healthy DK salary of $11,400. In MMA contests, you can’t afford not to have fighters in your lineup who are capable of spectacular finishes. Johnson’s lightning-quick hands make him a strong candidate to put an opponent’s lights out in an instant.

Johnson scored a knockout win in this fashion in Dec. 2013 when he stopped perennial contender Joseph Benavidez. Since then, he has dominated Ali Bagautinov and Chris Cariaso. With stoppage wins in three of his last four fights and seven straight victories in all, Johnson is clearly one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the sport.

Horiguchi does present some different challenges because he’s a smooth, quick and slightly unorthodox striker. While the challenger is fast, he’s not quite as quick as the champion. In the end, that’s going to be the difference and should lead to anther stoppage win for Mighty Mouse.

Even if Horiguchi goes the distance, Johnson has averaged 3.54 significant strikes per match, per FightMetric.com. That pace should provide DK owners a solid point total for a decision victory.

Here’s my optimum DK lineup for the event. Just below the table is a look at another virtual lock, a sleeper pick that could be the difference between winning and losing your contest and a high-value loser.

Sarah Kaufman ($10,400) vs. Alexis Davis

The old adage says that it’s hard to beat an opponent three times in a row. I usually agree with that concept in football but not so much in MMA. Sarah Kaufman has faced and defeated Alexis Davis in 2007 and 2012 before the two women joined the UFC.

The first win came by KO, and the most recent came via majority decision.

Davis is an improved fighter despite coming off an embarrassing 16-second loss at the hands of UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey back in July 2014 at UFC 175. However, the long layoff and Kaufman’s mental edge over her should still be too much for the 30-year-old Davis to overcome.

The 29-year-old Kaufman’s only losses have come to Rousey in 2012 and another women’s MMA legend, Marloes Coenen, in 2010. Considering her impressive track record, Kaufman may very well be the second-best fighter female fighter in the world. Davis will need to take Kaufman down, but that’s easier said than done.

In her career, Kaufman’s takedown defense percentage is 85 percent. Kaufman also racks up 7.1 significant strikes per minute. Against a slow-of-foot opponent like Davis, this should be a recipe for a healthy chunk of fantasy points for Kaufman.

CB Dollaway ($9,200) vs. Michael Bisping

This pick has as much to do with Michael Bisping‘s inconsistency and age as it does CB Dollaway‘s skill. Bisping has alternated wins and losses for his last seven fights. Since he was submitted by Luke Rockhold in his last fight, the trend says Bisping should beat Dollaway.

I’m going against the grain a bit here simply because it’s difficult to trust Bisping in any scenario. That’s especially the case when he’s facing a younger fighter like Dollaway, who is also hungry to ascend up the middleweight ranks.

Dollaway isn’t exactly a fresh face. He’s been in the UFC since 2008, and he’s 31 years old. That said, Bisping is 36, and he’s been with the promotion since 2007. He’s been on the cusp of a title shot numerous times, but he’s always come up short.

Bisping has above-average boxing, and he’ll likely have faster hands than Dollaway. However, Dollaway is the better wrestler, and he shouldn’t have a great deal of problems taking Bisping down. Tim Kennedy, who is less accomplished as a wrestler, scored five of 11 takedown attempts against Bisping in their April 2014 bout, per FightMetric.com.

As a former All-American in wrestling from Arizona State University, there’s no question what game plan Dollaway will look to employ. Fox Sports’ Elias Cepeda captures this confident quote from Dollaway about the upcoming matchup:

His weakest point (wrestling) is my strongest point. And I’ve improved so much on what used to be a weak point for me — stand-up striking. I’ve had immense improvement there. I feel I can stand with him, and I feel I can still knock him out. I don’t think he has that option. If things go bad for him on the feet, it is not like he’s going to bust out takedowns.

Look for Dollaway to grind out an unanimous decision based on top control and ground-and-pound strikes.

David Michaud ($8,400) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier

UFC 186 is one of those cards where its difficult to pick five winners and stay under the salary cap. Thus we need to find a predicted loser who has a chance to still score a bit before going down in defeat.

The battle between Olivier Aubin-Mercier and David Michaud is one that features two up-and-coming lightweights looking to take the next step in their careers. Taking Aubin-Mercier would cost you $11,000 in DK salary. Michaud can be had for just $8,400. I think this fight is a little closer than the salary disparity would suggest.

Both fighters lost their UFC professional debuts and rebounded with wins in their second attempt. While Aubin-Mercier appears to be a slightly better grappler and submissions artist, Michaud is a powerfully built 155-pounder and has a more diverse set of skills. He has three wins by KO and submission. Aubin-Mercier has won all five of his professional fights by submission.

Michaud packs more of a wallop in stand-up, and that is where he’d be advised to keep the fight. Even if he loses, his striking could make him one of the more productive losers on the night. If he can stop Aubin-Mercier’s attempts to take him down, he could find a home for one of his hard right-hand counters and score even bigger than expected.

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UFC Fight Night: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Mendes vs. Lamas Fight Card

On a night with just 10 fights scheduled, every fighter on the UFC Fight Night 63 card is available for DraftKings players to select. You can select five, but one of them has to be Chad “Money” Mendes. Despite the fact that he’s scheduled to face a tou…

That’s because those who set the salary slots are aware of Mendes‘ ability and the way he’s performed against anyone not named Jose Aldo.

Mendes has only lost two fights in his mixed martial arts career, and both of those defeats came to Aldo. He’s 16-0 against everyone else.

When Mendes wins, he’s almost always impressive, and he often gets the finish. Before his most recent defeat to Aldo in Oct. 2014, Money had recorded four straight wins by knockout or TKO. In this fight, he has an opponent who has proven vulnerable to stoppages.

Two of Lamas’ three defeats have come by KO/TKO.

Neither of the fighters who stopped him (Iuri Alcantara and Danny Castillo) are as strong and explosive as Mendes. Based on his aggression, wrestling and striking power, Mendes is a good pick to win by stoppage.

On the flip side, I’d stay away from Clay Guida. The Carpenter is a fan favorite, and he’s in a bout he probably should win based on his wrestling prowess. However, he’s looked bad in his recent fights. He was never the quickest fighter, but he’s looked slow even by his standards in stand-up exchanges.

Guida hasn’t been able to transition into grappling, and that could be a problem against Robbie Peralta. The latter is a dangerous striker who has won 72 percent of his fights by KO/TKO. For $10,700 in DK salary, Guida‘s price is too steep. If you’re looking for a sleeper, Peralta is your guy.

He’s coming off a submission loss to Thiago Tavares in his last bout, but he has an aging fighter who is ripe for the picking in front of him in this one.

Here’s the lineup I’d choose to go to war with in a DK contest.

Two More Favorites

Dustin Poirier ($10,100) vs. Diego Ferreira

This one could be close, but Dustin Poirier is the better striker. He’s also tough to finish on the ground. The only time he’s lost a fight by submission was to Chan Sung Jung back in May 2012.

In both men are looking to impress, they’ll probably elect to keep the fight standing. Poirier‘s southpaw stance could give Diego Ferreira issues as could his overall activity. Poirier lands more strikes (4.47 per minute to 2.35), connects at a higher percentage (49 percent to 32) and secures more takedowns per fight (1.39 to 0.67).

From a statistical standpoint, Poirier is the man who seems better suited to deliver additional fantasy points on top of a win. He’s one of the smartest picks you can make on the card.

Jorge Masvidal ($9,900) vs. Al Iaquinta

If you’re looking for a bout with Fight of the Night potential, it’s the Jorge Masvidal vs. Al Iaquinta bout. Usually, that doesn’t make for a great bout for DK players to focus on. However, I’m feeling confident Masvidal takes down Iaquinta, so I’ve included it in my optimal lineup.

Iaquinta is one of the better strikers in the lightweight division, but some of that might be negated by Masvidal‘s length and craftiness. Masvidal is two inches taller (5’11” versus Iaquinta’s 5’9″) and has a four-inch edge in reach.

Based on what he’s been saying leading up to the bout, it appears he wants to stand and exchange with Iaquinta.

Per Hunter Homistek of Bleacher Report, Masvidal said:

A lot of times, I see guys fighting, and they fight a particular way—they’re eating leather the whole time, and they keep coming forward—but then when they get in there with me, they switch it up. They’ll shoot takedowns. They don’t punch or nothing—they’re just running. They’re running and jabbing. So I’m hoping this dude will just stand in there and fight like a man.

This could also be a trap to lure Iaquinta in so Masvidal can work his underrated ground game. He escapes and transitions through submissions as well as anyone in the UFC, but for whatever reason, he doesn’t get the credit he deserves.

If Masvidal can get the fight to the ground, he’ll submit Iaquinta. If it’s a stand-up fight, Iaquinta has a better chance to win, but Masvidal is better at adjusting mid-fight and tougher.

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Stats per FightMetric

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UFC 184: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Ronda Rousey vs. Cat Zingano Card

Ronda Rousey is set to defend her UFC women’s bantamweight title against Cat Zingano at UFC 184. It could be the most thrilling bout in Rousey’s career to date, but it’s not a fight you want to target in your DraftKings lineup.
Zingano is easily the to…

Zingano is easily the toughest and most well-rounded opponent Rousey has faced. While I couldn’t bring myself to pick against Rousey, I do acknowledge that this should be a tough fight that lasts into the third round or later.

The longer it goes, the less points Rousey would potentially score for DK players. Thus, I’m leaving this one untouched. It’s best you watch this bout for the thrill of the fight and not with any DK interest.

You have to pick someone, right? Here are the best picks for Saturday’s card.

Jake “The Juggernaut” Ellenberger ($11,400) vs. Josh “Kos” Koscheck

To put it plainly, Josh Koscheck is done. Kos has lost three straight bouts, with the last two coming by TKO/KO. He probably should have called it quits in 2013 when Robbie Lawler stopped him at UFC 157, but Koscheck is still chasing Octagon glory. He recently told Mike Bohn of MMA Junkie he wants to fight out the end of his contract, which has two matches remaining.

Per Bohn, Koscheck said: “I started my career with the UFC and hopefully I’ll get the opportunity to end my career with the UFC. I’d like to have that opportunity to win two more fights and then see.”

Just about any fighter opposite the 37-year-old Koscheck would be a smart fantasy pick. As it turns out, the shopworn Koscheck is just what the doctor ordered for a struggling and desperate Jake Ellenberger. The Juggernaut has also lost three straight.

He needs a win in the worst way, and it would be a shock if he doesn’t get off the schneid against Koscheck. In a bout that will likely end in the first two rounds, Ellenberger is perhaps the smartest and easiest pick on the card.

He’s a heavy-handed fighter facing an opponent who has lost a step and been the victim of a few too many vicious KO losses. Ellenberger should score a KO/TKO win to make good on his high DK salary.

Roman “El Gallito” Salazar ($7,600) vs. Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto

At one point, Norifumi “Kid” Yamamoto was one of the most exciting smaller fighters in the sport. Now, he’s a 37-year-old fighter coming off a three-year absence and a three-fight losing streak.

Roman Salazar isn’t exactly a star waiting to explode in the UFC, but he is an excellent submission fighter who is hungry to perform well in the promotion. He lost his UFC debut to Mitch Gagnon in Oct. 2014, but this is a fight he can win.

By taking Kid Yamamoto to the mat and pushing the pace, Salazar will come out on top. A decision win is possible, but I’m making a partially bold and precise prediction for this one. Salazar will score an impressive submission victory.

This fight is set up to be the biggest bargain of the night for DK players.

Roan “Jucao” Carneiro ($7,700) vs. Marc “The Filipino Wrecking Machine” Munoz

If you made a list of the most overrated active fighters in the UFC, Marc Munoz’s name should be on it. He’s lost three of his last four fights, and the last two losses have come in the first round.

Munoz is no longer a serious contender at 185 pounds, and he’s on his way out of the top 15 in the division.

On Saturday night, Roan Carneiro will help usher him down the ladder. The 36-year-old Brazilian hasn’t fought in the UFC since 2008, and he was just 2-3 during his stint with the promotion.

Since leaving, he is 7-1. Carneiro is hungry and eager to impress in his return.

Munoz simply isn’t the striker nor ground-and-pound threat he once was. He’ll get outworked by Carneiro and lose by lopsided decision or TKO in the second bargain pick of the evening.

Dhiego Lima ($10,100) vs. Tim “Dirty Bird” Means

There aren’t a ton of welterweights with length to match that of the 6’2″ Tim Means, but Dhiego Lima is one of the few. One of Means’ two losses in the UFC came to the unusually long Neil Magny in the Dirty Bird’s return to the UFC after a brief hiatus.

Lima has a similar length and grinding style. He’s also a bit quicker than Means, as well as a better grappler. The former Ultimate Fighter season 19 participant has a bright future ahead of him, as his overall game is still taking shape.

Neither fighter has proven to be a devastating striker at the high levels of the sport. Thus, this one is likely to go to the scorecards. When it’s all said and done, Lima should earn the victory based on time spent in top control or a dominant position on the ground.

Tony “El Cucuy” Ferguson ($11,400) vs. Gleison Tibau

Despite being one of the winningest fighters in UFC history, Gleison Tibau has routinely come up short against elite competition. He lost to Michael Johnson, Khabib Nurmagomedov and Jim Miller when it seemed he was ready to ascend toward a title shot.

With four straight wins and a 7-1 record in the UFC overall, Tony Ferguson is on the cusp of being regarded as one of the best at 155 pounds. A win should put him in the top 15 in the lightweight rankings. Tibau will serve as the gatekeeper for Ferguson in this bout.

I believe Ferguson will win on the strength of effective striking. Both men are excellent submission fighters, so there won’t be much of an advantage on the ground for either of them.

However, in the stand-up game, El Cucuy’s length and speed should allow him to potshot Tibau en route to an easy unanimous-decision victory and some extra DK fantasy points for significant strikes.

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