Eight Ways of Looking at UFC on Versus 6

Filed under: UFCWe’re just a few hours away from the UFC on Versus 6 event, and there are plenty of questions, concerns, and issues to sort through. Here, in no particular order, are a few of them.

I. Will this be the breakthrough fight Dominick Cruz …

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We’re just a few hours away from the UFC on Versus 6 event, and there are plenty of questions, concerns, and issues to sort through. Here, in no particular order, are a few of them.

I. Will this be the breakthrough fight Dominick Cruz needs?
He’s the UFC’s least celebrated champion, mostly because mainstream fans haven’t seen enough of him yet. The UFC seems to think he can’t sell pay-per-views without Urijah Faber’s help, so Cruz gets stuck on a cable TV fight card smack in between two pay-per-view event weekends. It’s not the best coming out party you could hope for, but a lot depends on what he can make of it. If Cruz can put on another of his frantic, indefatigable performances — and this time, maybe even finish his opponent — he might finally get the attention he deserves. If he simply dominates Demetrious Johnson for the full five rounds, well, it’s hard to make much of a highlight reel out of that.

II. This fight is more important for Pat Barry than it is for
Stefan Struve. Both are coming off losses and could really use a rebound win, but they’re not exactly in the same boat. Barry is 32 years old — nine years older than Struve — and has yet to string two victories together in the UFC. Ever since his debut he’s followed a win one, lose one pattern, usually beating the lesser-knowns and then losing the big ones, which doesn’t exactly impress the bosses. To further up the stakes, he’s coming off his first ever knockout loss. Though he previously said it had helped remove his fear of the KO, that’s the kind of thing that has been known to mess with a man’s mind. Now that he knows what it’s like to be the one waking up on his back, will he still feel like wading into those striking exchanges with the much larger Struve? Not that either of them would like to lose two straight, but Barry’s career has much less time left on the clock. Maybe Struve can wait, but Barry needs to make it happen now.

III. Who hypes the hype-man? If the name Mike Easton sounds familiar, it might be because you know him as the guy who’s always standing over Dominick Cruz’s shoulder, reminding him and everyone within shouting distance who the champ is. I admit, the man’s enthusiasm is infectious. We could all use a guy like him to pump up our egos and get us through a tough day. But now that he’s on the same card as Cruz, and getting back into action for the first time since 2009, who’s going to do the shouting? Probably still Easton, actually. He’ll just get to do it from inside the cage this time.

IV. Does
Charlie Brenneman have a “Rocky story” sequel in him? “The Spaniard” got to be the hero when he stepped up on short notice and derailed Rick Story’s hype train, but yesterday’s glory fades quickly in this business. The Anthony Johnson fight is tougher because a) Brenneman’s no longer in a situation where he has nothing to lose, and b) “Rumble” has the exact combination of wrestling skills and knockout power that could prove to be a nightmare for a fight like Brenneman. This one may not follow a movie script outline, but it’s no less important for his career.

V. The last time
Josh Neer won a fight in the UFC was February 7, 2009. He submitted Mac Danzig, then lost two straight and went on a tour of the minor leagues. Now the journeyman is back as a welterweight, and facing fellow wanderer Keith Wisniewski, who lost a decision in his sole UFC appearance back in 2005. It’s a situation where, if Neer can’t beat Wisniewski, he probably doesn’t belong in the UFC. Then again, you could say the same thing from the other side just as easily.

VI. Barry’s best chance against Struve?
Since getting eye-to-eye with the Dutchman requires a little outside help, Barry might have to target his legs, which are at least more within his range. Though certain judges remain convinced that leg kicks can’t end a fight, Barry actually has three career victories that way, including his brutal win over Dan Evensen in his UFC debut. I’m not sure I’d want to put all my faith into my ability to chop away at Struve’s thighs like a lumberjack going to work on an angry redwood, but what else can he do? Unless he gets a boost from the referee, reaching Struve’s chin won’t be so easy.

VII. Hey, remember that whole controversial stoppage thing from the first Mac Danzig-Matt Wiman fight? Yeah, well, now they’re meeting again to settle it, just shy of a year and a half later. Finally, you can stop losing sleep wondering how this match-up would have turned out. I know it was really eating at you.

VIII. Don’t forget about Paul Sass Not unless you want to get choked. The Brit has a nasty submissions game, and is particularly dangerous off his back. He’s also pretty creative about getting there, so it’s not simply a matter of deciding not to take him down. The youngster took a lot of people by surprise in his debut at UFC 120, so it should be interesting to see if Michael Johnson has done his homework on how to avoid getting entangled in that mess. You go to the mat with this man at your peril. And with the way he uses that triangle choke, you’re never truly safe from it until you’ve left the building.

 

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UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card Preliminary card (Facebook) Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval Pass Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski Welcome back to the UFC Neer. Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant Shane Roller Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth Pass Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul

Predictions for UFC Live Cruz vs Johnson Card

Preliminary card (Facebook)

Bantamweight bout: Walel Watson vs Joseph Sandoval

Pass

Welterweight bout: Josh Neer vs Keith Wisniewski

Welcome back to the UFC Neer.

Lightweight bout: Shane Roller vs TJ Grant

Shane Roller

Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs Byron Bloodworth

Pass

Lightweight bout: Michael Johnson vs Paul Sass

Johnson

Lightweight bout: Yves Edwards vs Rafaello Oliveira

I haven’t seen Oliveira, but I’ll pick Edwards in the dark here.

Main card

Lightweight bout: Matt Wiman vs Mac Danzig

This is a rematch fight. Wiman won due to early ref stoppage last fight. I like Wiman to win this one. Very tough guy to finish. Well they both are really. A very compelling fight.

Welterweight bout: Anthony Johnson vs Charlie Brenneman

Although Brenneman beat Rick Story in a major upset. I think Anthony Johnson’s power and reach will be too much. Johnson.

Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs Stefan Struve

Barry will probably chop the legs of Struve for three rounds and take a dec.

Bantamweight Championship: Dominick Cruz (champion) vs Demetrious Johnson

Dominick Cruz. I don’t think Johnson brings enough skill to the table to defeat Cruz. Not only is Cruz awesome on the feet, but he is equally a good wrestler.

UFC Live Cruz vs. Johnson Weigh-In Results: Both Bantamweights at 135

Filed under: UFCUFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and challenger Demetrious Johnson were both on weight for Saturday night’s title fight when they stepped on the scale Friday at the UFC Live weigh-in.

Both Cruz and Johnson weighed in right at th…

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Dominick CruzUFC bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz and challenger Demetrious Johnson were both on weight for Saturday night’s title fight when they stepped on the scale Friday at the UFC Live weigh-in.

Both Cruz and Johnson weighed in right at the bantamweight limit of 135 pounds.

The largely uneventful weigh-ins were lightened up by 5-foot-11 heavyweight Pat Barry standing on a stool to stare down with his 6-foot-11 opponent, Stefan Struve, as UFC announcer Joe Rogan declared, “This is the biggest height discrepancy for any UFC fight ever.”

One fighter missed weight: Byron Bloodworth, who took his bantamweight fight with Mike Easton on short notice this week, came in at 138 pounds.

Full results are below.

Main Card:
Dominick Cruz (135) vs. Demetrious Johnson (135)
Pat Barry (243) vs. Stefan Struve (261)
Charlie Brenneman (171) vs. Anthony Johnson (171)
Mac Danzig (155) vs. Matt Wiman (156)

Preliminary Card:
Yves Edwards (155) vs. Rafaello Oliveira (155)
Michael Johnson (156) vs. Paul Sass (155)
Byron Bloodworth (138) vs. Mike Easton (135)
T.J. Grant (155) vs. Shane Roller (156)
Josh Neer (171) vs. Keith Wisniewski (170)
Joseph Sandoval (134) vs. Walel Watson (134.5)

 

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UFC Live 6 Main Event Breakdown: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

Filed under: UFCIt’s been four years since a UFC championship has been defended on basic cable TV, a streak that will end on Saturday when bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz attempts to hold onto his belt and thwart the challenge of Demetrious Johnson…

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It’s been four years since a UFC championship has been defended on basic cable TV, a streak that will end on Saturday when bantamweight champion Dominick Cruz attempts to hold onto his belt and thwart the challenge of Demetrious Johnson.

The matchup, broadcast on Versus, likely boasts the speediest pair of fighters ever matched for a UFC title. Cruz is known for his fancy footwork and ability to weave in and out of striking distance, while the 5-foot-3 Johnson expertly navigates reach differentials with his own swift feet.

Cruz has been likened to Lyoto Machida in that he has an unconventional style that is relatively difficult to emulate and causes matchup difficulties. But apart from that similarity, their styles are actually quite different. While Machida tends to be very still, leans back out of punching range and waits to aggressively move in for a killshot, Cruz’s success is built on his endless movement, flurries of activity and ability to seamlessly transition from standup to takedowns.

It’s this unique set of skills that awaits Johnson as a challenge.

For at least part of it, Johnson is at least on paper, equipped. Much like Cruz, Johnson spent his high school years as a wrestler. That’s shown offensively, as Johnson has successfully completed 74 percent of his takedowns, according to FightMetric.

Defensively, however, Johnson has had some difficulties. He’s only stopped 46 percent of attempts against him. Given the frequency of Cruz’s takedown tries (he’s scored 31 takedowns in his last six fights), Johnson will have to do much better than that to give himself a chance to win.

On their feet, things get trickier. An interesting note about Cruz is that for all the accolades his striking receives, he’s not a particularly accurate striker. In fact, he’s below average when it comes to connection percentage, landing only 29 percent of his thrown strikes. That probably comes as a surprising statistic to many who constantly hear about Cruz’s standup brilliance.

In reality, Cruz’s striking success is based on volume and relentlessness above all else. Take his most recent title defense against Urijah Faber, for example. In the bout, Cruz out-landed Faber 97-53 overall. However, again, Cruz connected on just 39.4 percent of his strikes.

For all his activity, Cruz rarely offers opponents a chance to hit him in flush in return. Faber, for example, scored on just 32 percent of his shots. While Faber arguably landed the bigger shots, they were fewer and farther between, and Cruz’s offensive aggression makes an impact in the minds of the judges.

We’ve seen a trend recently of opponents trying to engage Cruz in tight. Since he’s not considered a power puncher, foes are willing to sit back, let the right-hander wade in towards them and fire back power shots as he steps into range. Both Faber and his Team Alpha Male teammate Joseph Benavidez employed that kind of strategy, often keying on his kicks.

For Johnson, it would be a bit trickier, because while he has the speed to employ it, he hasn’t shown the power to make that kind of attack the right one for him. That plan tends to be a risky proposition. When Cruz attacks first, there will usually be at least 3-4 strikes coming, and you might only get to fire off one in return. That almost ensures you’ll lose the flurry in the eyes of the judges (barring a knockdown or flush strike), and over the course of the round, those types of exchanges will add up in his favor, as they have over and over.

Johnson has so far in his UFC/WEC career flashed an impressive mix of striking accuracy and defense. He has successfully landed 51 percent of his strikes, and despite his usual reach disadvantage, he rarely gets hit. One interesting stat is that he only absorbs 0.98 strikes per minute, a number which would rank him No. 2 for best defense in the UFC if he had enough fights to qualify him for the leaderboard. By comparison, Cruz absorbs 1.75 strikes per minute.

Cruz is about a 5-to-1 favorite, and that number is a little too big for a fighter who goes to decisions so often. His game is well equipped to win either a striking, wrestling or ground battle, but he’s never shown the ability to overwhelm a foe except in volume. Johnson is one of the few bantamweights in the world who may be faster than Cruz and can match his gas tank. Because of that, I expect this fight to be more competitive than the line indicates.

The key factor in this bout may not end up being speed or striking, but Cruz’s takedown defense. Johnson’s wrestling doesn’t get a ton of notice, but since losing his WEC debut, he’s scored 23 takedowns in four fights, successfully completing 74.1 percent of his tries. It was his wrestling that helped him win his two biggest fights, and we shouldn’t expect him to abandon it now. Keeping Johnson at the end of his leg kicks will help Cruz in that regard, along with his natural gifts.

The wrestling game will stalemate at times, leading this fight to be decided standing. As usual, Cruz’s flurries and pace will offer him an advantage there. If Johnson tries to be a counter-fighter, he’ll suffer the same fate as Faber and the rest, caught up in the numbers game. If he comes forward, his chances are better, but crossing the distance will leave him open to counters. Johnson is going to have his moments, but fighting from range is Cruz’s specialty, and that’s where most of this fight will be decided. Cruz via decision.

 

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UFC on Versus 6: By the Odds

Filed under: UFCUFC on Versus 6 goes down in Washington D.C. on Saturday night, and while the people there may not look too kindly on you betting on presidential races (don’t look now, but Ron Paul’s going off at +4500), you can still scour this fight …

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Dominick CruzUFC on Versus 6 goes down in Washington D.C. on Saturday night, and while the people there may not look too kindly on you betting on presidential races (don’t look now, but Ron Paul’s going off at +4500), you can still scour this fight card in search of a good deal.

So who do oddsmakers like on Saturday night, and who might they be overvaluing? I’m so glad you asked…

Dominick Cruz (-525) vs. Demetrious Johnson (+325)

If there’s anybody in the 135-pound division who can out-quick Cruz, it just might be Johnson. Then again, that’s still a big if. Johnson’s problem is that his quickness is mostly limited to the takedown department. Granted, he can shoot in for a double-leg and have your back on the mat before you can say ‘sprawl,’ much less do it, but it’s fairly predictable. Cruz, on the other hand, is anything but. With the way he dips his head and lets his feet drift perilously close together in that peculiar little striking cha-cha of his, he’d be relatively easy to drop if only you had any way of knowing when he was going to do what. From the looks of it, he barely knows. Cruz dominates not simply because he’s fast, but because he disguises his attacks so well. Is he throwing the lead right or is he just distracting you with it en route to the takedown? You never know until it’s too late.
My pick: Cruz. Compared to him, Johnson is a one-trick pony. If that trick were knockout power or even slick submissions, it might be worth the risk. But no way he holds the champ down for five rounds.

Pat Barry (-185) vs. Stefan Struve (+155)

As much as I love Barry and hope he sticks around for a long time to entertain us in and out of the cage, I’m surprised to see him favored in this fight. Barry’s a great kickboxer, but he’s giving up so much size and reach to the 6’11” Struve. The smart play would be for Barry to attack his legs, if only because he can’t reach the Dutchman’s head without a trampoline. If Struve does even a mediocre job of using his length, he should be able to give Barry problems. If the fight moves in close, Struve could take it to the mat, where he has the better submissions game. The only thing he can’t do is spend a lot of time in the clinch or miss with big shots that let Barry get in and counter. And okay, he also probably shouldn’t let Barry do to his legs what he did to poor, poor Dan Evensen’s, but that goes without saying, right?
My pick: Struve. In a stand-up comedy or personality contest, Barry wins easily. But here, with the underdog line plus all the checkmarks in Struve’s favor, he’s the smarter pick.

Anthony Johnson (-185) vs. Charlie Brenneman (+155)

Remember when Brenneman was, according to the Pennsylvania Athletic Commission’s Greg Sirb, a real-life “Rocky story” for stepping up in Nate Marquardt’s place and beating Rick Story? Well, a) someone should remind Sirb that it’s his job to regulate fights, not sell them like he’s Don freaking King, and b) as a thank you from the UFC, now Brenneman gets has to fight Johnson, which just reminds us all what a tough way to make a living this sport can be. Johnson has proved himself to be a pretty solid wrestler when he needs to be, but here he’ll likely use that to keep the fight standing and exploit Brenneman’s inexperience in the striking game. And that can be done, let’s not forget. Johny Hendricks had him on ice skates after landing a few good shots, and he’s nowhere near the striker Johnson is. As long as “Rumble” can make weight without killing himself, he has the tools to keep this fight where he wants it and take advantage of some holes in Brenneman’s game. But then, that scale has proved to be a nemesis in the past…
My pick: Johnson. He’s faced tougher competition in his UFC run than Brenneman, and a diverse set of skills has helped him tremendously. Brenneman does one thing very well, but that will only get you so far.

Mac Danzig (+165) vs. Matt Wiman (-205)

Ah, yes. The fight that ended early, then was supposed to happen again, then got put off by injuries and other match-ups until we all forgot what was weird about the first meeting. Quick version: Wiman had Danzig in a not-quite-tight-enough guillotine choke, but the ref freaked out and stopped it anyway, thinking Danzig was in trouble. Now they meet again to settle that old score, only this time it’s Wiman who’s more recently feeling the sting of injustice, having just lost a close decision to Dennis Siver in July. The first meeting between these two was so brief, it was tough to tell who had the edge. But that Siver fight gave Wiman a chance to really show what he could do, and he was impressive in it. The fight was still a close one and could have gone either way, but Wiman showed how far he’s come in recent years by hanging with someone of Siver’s caliber and nearly putting him away. Danzig? He knocked out Joe Stevenson last December, but that doesn’t exactly mean what it used to.
My pick: Wiman. He’s come a long way in the last couple years. Danzig is still mostly the same guy who won TUF.

Quick Picks:

– Yves Edwards (-165) over Rafaello Oliveira (+135). Oliveira isn’t fighting guys like “Wigman Big Big” anymore, and he’s lost to nearly every name fighter he’s faced.

– Paul Sass (+150) over Michael Johnson (-180). With the exception of his decision loss to Jonathan Brookins in the TUF finale, all of Johnson’s other losses have come via submission. And I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but Sass has some nasty ones.

The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay:
Cruz + A. Johnson + Wiman + Edwards.

 

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Photos of the Day: ‘UFC on Versus 6? Is All About the Height Difference


(From today’s press conferenceAbove: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson. Below: Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve. Props to MMAMania)

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and Pat Barry will spend all fight looking up nostrils when they take on tall-for-his-weight-class Dominick Cruz and tall-for-humanity Stefan Struve (respectively) this Saturday. Don’t forget to come back to CagePotato.com for round-by-round results from the Versus main card broadcast of UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson, starting at 9 p.m. ET. In case you’re curious, there’s a photo of Stefan Struve and Demetrious Johnson standing next to each other after the jump. Not for the faint of heart.


(From today’s press conferenceAbove: Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson. Below: Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve. Props to MMAMania)

Demetrious “Mighty Mouse” Johnson and Pat Barry will spend all fight looking up nostrils when they take on tall-for-his-weight-class Dominick Cruz and tall-for-humanity Stefan Struve (respectively) this Saturday. Don’t forget to come back to CagePotato.com for round-by-round results from the Versus main card broadcast of UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson, starting at 9 p.m. ET. In case you’re curious, there’s a photo of Stefan Struve and Demetrious Johnson standing next to each other after the jump. Not for the faint of heart.


(Props: Heavy)