(“Yeah, I’d like to see you do that three more ti-THWOMP!” Photo via Getty.)
It’s such a shame that TUF 14 winner Diego Brandao is going to be forced into retirement at just 26 years of age on account of his mental illness. What’s that? You hadn’t heard that Diego Brandao is suffering from a multitude of mental illnesses? Well maybe you should check out his recent interview with MMAFighting, in which he not only confirms that he threatened to “stab Dustin Poirier with a pen” (you hear a little girl, Ace?) backstage at the UFC 168 weigh-ins, but believes that Poirier was “scared” and “got lucky” in their fight the following night:
He was there, bouncing at the weigh-ins, staring at me. I told him backstage ‘if you ever do that again, I’ll stab you with a pen.’ That’s what happened.
Every time he saw me at the hotel he kept staring at me, and I responded asked what was the problem, if he looking like that because he was hungry or what. When he got inside the cage I saw he was scared. He got lucky (to win).
“Quite honestly,” Brandao added, “I’ve never seen a fighter get lucky so many times in a 30-second period. You’d think that at least some of the punches he threw at me would have missed, but nooooooo.”
I’m kidding, of course. There’s no way that Brandao has ever started a sentence with “quite honestly.”
(“Yeah, I’d like to see you do that three more ti-THWOMP!” Photo via Getty.)
It’s such a shame that TUF 14 winner Diego Brandao is going to be forced into retirement at just 26 years of age on account of his mental illness. What’s that? You hadn’t heard that Diego Brandao is suffering from a multitude of mental illnesses? Well maybe you should check out his recent interview with MMAFighting, in which he not only confirms that he threatened to “stab Dustin Poirier with a pen” (you hear a little girl, Ace?) backstage at the UFC 168 weigh-ins, but believes that Poirier was “scared” and “got lucky” in their fight the following night:
He was there, bouncing at the weigh-ins, staring at me. I told him backstage ‘if you ever do that again, I’ll stab you with a pen.’ That’s what happened.
Every time he saw me at the hotel he kept staring at me, and I responded asked what was the problem, if he looking like that because he was hungry or what. When he got inside the cage I saw he was scared. He got lucky (to win).
“Quite honestly,” Brandao added, “I’ve never seen a fighter get lucky so many times in a 30-second period. You’d think that at least some of the punches he threw at me would have missed, but nooooooo.”
I’m kidding, of course. There’s no way that Brandao has ever started a sentence with “quite honestly.” But I do find it funny that Brandao would attribute Poirier’s pre-fight ‘tude to hunger, when Brandao himself was clearly the angrier andfatter of the two.
Of course, there’s a chance that Brandao isn’t full-on Bynesing here. He could simply be suffering the aftereffects of not only his KO loss at UFC 168, but the car accident he was allegedly involved in just two weeks before the fight:
A drunk man hit my car, and I ended up crashing in another car. I had to go to my lawyer. (The other driver) didn’t want to pay the costs to fix my car. I did my best, I was a warrior just to step inside that cage. Any other fighter would just run away, but I needed that.
I couldn’t run, I couldn’t cut weight to fight. I had injuries in my back and ribs, but I went there and fought. I don’t think I trained more than five times for this fight and I knocked him down twice in the first round.
Something tells me that Brandao has to “go to his lawyer” a lot, with all the pen-stabbings he is probably involved in and all. If he takes offense to a guy he’s about to fight staring at him for too long, Lord knows how he treats some bum who eyeballs his girlfriend at the gas station.
(After knocking out Josh Barnett, Travis Browne performed the Warmaster’s trademark throat-slashing victory gesture, which means that legally, he now owns Barnett’s soul for all eternity. / Photo via Getty.)
Featuring an eagerly awaited rematch between the greatest middleweight of all time and the undefeated phenom who took his belt, UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2 was one of the most anticipated UFC cards of 2013. Thankfully, the highly entertaining main card did not disappoint. Showcasing great performances, unsportsmanlike conduct, leg-snapping horror, and a fart heard around the world, UFC 168 left us no shortage of things to talk about. Here’s our clear-eyed look at what went down on Saturday night.
The Good
• With the state of WMMA still burgeoning, the co-main event of Ronda Rousey vs. Meisha Tate was an important fight for solidifying Women’s Bantamweight as a legitimate and financially viable division for the UFC. Thanks to the highly publicized rematch between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman, the UFC’s two biggest female stars had a high-profile PPV stage to showcase their skills. Thankfully, for the UFC and the fans, Rousey and Tate did not disappoint. Rousey put on a dominating performance and capped it off with a third-round submission victory. The best part? Tate made the fight competitive.
“Cupcake” managed to last three rounds and in the process took Rousey down, escaped multiple submission attempts, and threw some good upkicks from the bottom that had Ronda using caution. On the whole, Tate was outclassed by the better fighter but she showed that Rousey is not invincible — and that’s a good thing. Rousey is an incredible athlete but the UFC cannot base their entire WMMA venture on one fighter. They need contenders and they need the fans to believe that those contenders stand a legitimate chance of winning; otherwise, interest will wane quickly. Rousey looked great, but beatable. That’s exactly what needed to happen. With Sara McMann, Cat Zingano, and Alexis Davis all serving as reasonable challenges, the future of the women’s bantamweight division is looking bright.
(After knocking out Josh Barnett, Travis Browne performed the Warmaster’s trademark throat-slashing victory gesture, which means that legally, he now owns Barnett’s soul for all eternity. / Photo via Getty.)
Featuring an eagerly awaited rematch between the greatest middleweight of all time and the undefeated phenom who took his belt, UFC 168: Weidman vs. Silva 2 was one of the most anticipated UFC cards of 2013. Thankfully, the highly entertaining main card did not disappoint. Showcasing great performances, unsportsmanlike conduct, leg-snapping horror, and a fart heard around the world, UFC 168 left us no shortage of things to talk about. Here’s our clear-eyed look at what went down on Saturday night.
The Good
• With the state of WMMA still burgeoning, the co-main event of Ronda Rousey vs. Meisha Tate was an important fight for solidifying Women’s Bantamweight as a legitimate and financially viable division for the UFC. Thanks to the highly publicized rematch between Anderson Silva and Chris Weidman, the UFC’s two biggest female stars had a high-profile PPV stage to showcase their skills. Thankfully, for the UFC and the fans, Rousey and Tate did not disappoint. Rousey put on a dominating performance and capped it off with a third-round submission victory. The best part? Tate made the fight competitive.
“Cupcake” managed to last three rounds and in the process took Rousey down, escaped multiple submission attempts, and threw some good upkicks from the bottom that had Ronda using caution. On the whole, Tate was outclassed by the better fighter but she showed that Rousey is not invincible — and that’s a good thing. Rousey is an incredible athlete but the UFC cannot base their entire WMMA venture on one fighter. They need contenders and they need the fans to believe that those contenders stand a legitimate chance of winning; otherwise, interest will wane quickly. Rousey looked great, but beatable. That’s exactly what needed to happen. With Sara McMann, Cat Zingano, and Alexis Davis all serving as reasonable challenges, the future of the women’s bantamweight division is looking bright.
• A lot was on the line for both Travis “Hapa” Browne and Josh Barnett at UFC 168, as the 5th and 6th ranked heavyweights, respectively, were risking their spots on the contender ladder. In August, Josh Barnett re-entered the UFC with an impressive first-round TKO victory over Frank Mir. The former UFC Heavyweight Champion and star in the PRIDE and Strikeforce organizations looked to be on the cusp of title contention with a win over Browne. However, Hapa quickly put those hopes to rest and showed who the true contender is.
With his quick, savage victory on Saturday, Browne secured his third Knockout of the Night bonus in as many fights — his other two KOs were against Alistair Overeem and Gabriel Gonzaga. Three knockouts over three high-quality opponents puts Browne right in the title mix and he seized the opportunity in the post-fight interview by calling out Fabricio Werdum. Champion Cain Velasquez is recovering from surgery and there’s no timeline on his return yet, so a match between Browne and Werdum makes perfect sense right now, and Browne’s ability to deal with Barnett’s wrestling shows that he stands a fighting chance against Velasquez in the future.
The Bad
• Ronda Rousey looked great on Saturday night, Judo-throwing Meisha Tate all over the Octagon before finishing her off with her eight-straight armbar submission victory in professional competition. However, following the finish, Ronda was unable to let bygones be bygones and refused to shake Tate’s hand. This certainly wasn’t the first time Ronda refused to shake Tate’s hand. In fact, Ronda garnered significant press coverage for her poor attitude on The Ultimate Fighter. However, Rousey supporters could at least justify her behavior on TUF as being part of the reality show hype. On Saturday night, Rousey definitively beat Tate for the second time, essentially finishing their rivalry for good. UFC 168 offered Ronda the opportunity to bury the hatchet and show a certain amount of sportsmanship. Of course, nobody expected Ronda to completely forgive and forget whatever anger she harbors towards Tate, but she should have at least shown Tate the respect she deserved as a fellow competitor — and man, did the fans let her know it.
Ronda’s attitude gets people talking, which means more PPV buys and big bucks for the UFC. Nevertheless, Ronda once again came across as petty, unsportsmanlike, and childish. Those aren’t adjectives usually associated with a UFC champion. Don’t expect Ronda’s style to change anytime soon, though. Ronda seems content to ignore the boos and bad press in order to “keep it real.” A rumored “talking to” by the UFC brass likely won’t change that either, although we’ll probably see a classier Ronda in the lead-up to her recently announced fight against Sara McMann since there is no blood between the two former Olympians.
• The first ever TUF Featherweight winner, Diego Brandao, came out of the TUF house with a lot of hype and promise in a stacked division. However, he also entered the Octagon with a reputation for being a loose cannon, following altercations with Steven Siler and Marcus Brimage in the TUF house. A lot of fans were able to overlook his brash attitude because of his exciting style and nasty knockouts. His TUF Finale fight earned him $80,000 in bonuses and he endeared himself to fans by saying he’d use the money to buy his mother a house.
At UFC 168, Brandao reminded everybody of how much of an asshole he really can be. If missing weight by over five pounds weren’t disrespectful enough, Brandao also apparently told opponent Dustin Poirier at the weigh-ins that he was going to stab him in the neck. Stay classy, Brandao. So when Poirier disposed of Brandao quickly with an impressive first-round TKO, it seemed like karma might be catching up to Brandao. Despite missing weight, threatening to kill his opponent and losing in brutal fashion, Brandao won’t be cut from the UFC. He’s a TUF winner, an exciting fighter, and apparently he only missed weight because of a car accident a couple of weeks ago. Also, according to Dana White, he has other personal issues going on. Hopefully, Brandao gets his life sorted out soon. The whole crazy asshole shtick only works when you’re winning.
The Ugly
• Enough press has already been given to Anderson Silva’s gruesome leg break so not much needs to be said here. However, the Corey Hill-esque injury was an ugly incident and not for the faint of heart. It was devastating to see the former champion carried off on a stretcher, screaming in agony. The UFC has released a statement that Silva underwent successful surgery and, astoundingly, that his recovery would only take up to six months. That means we could see Silva back in the Octagon within a year. I hope not. The aging Spider would be riding a two-fight losing streak and it is unlikely he would return as the dominant fighter he once was. I hope he heals quickly and enjoys his retirement. It may be the end of an era, but it was perhaps the greatest era in the young sport’s history and Silva would be smart to end things at the right time.
• On a lighter note, the fight between John Howard and Siyar Bahadurzada featured what was apparently an ugly-sounding fart from one of the fighters. During the second round, the fart, clearly audible on the broadcast, lit up social media and created a lot of speculation about who was responsible. Asked about it after the fight, Howard admitted that there was indeed a fart, but he didn’t want to take any responsibility for it. It’s hard to blame him. There’s a short list of fighters like Tim Sylvia and Kevin Randleman who have lost control of their bodily functions in the Octagon and it’s not a distinction most fighters are chasing.
Handling our liveblog for the “Weidman vs. Silva 2” pay-per-view broadcast is Aaron Mandel, who will be sticking round-by-round results after the jump beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and shoot us your own thoughts in the comments section or on twitter. (We’re @cagepotatomma. Hi there.)
Handling our liveblog for the “Weidman vs. Silva 2″ pay-per-view broadcast is Aaron Mandel, who will be sticking round-by-round results after the jump beginning at 10 p.m. ET / 7 p.m. PT. Refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest, and shoot us your own thoughts in the comments section or on twitter. (We’re @cagepotatomma. Hi there.)
Preliminary card results
– Uriah Hall def. Chris Leben via TKO (doctor stoppage*), 5:00 of round 1
– Michael Johnson def. Gleison Tibau via KO, 1:32 of round 2
– Dennis Siver def. Manny Gamburyan via unanimous decision (29-28 x 3)
– John Howard def. Siyar Bahadurzada via unanimous decision (30-27 x 3)
– William Macario def. Bobby Voelker via unanimous decision (30-27 x 3)
– Robbie Peralta def. Estevan Payan via KO, 0:12 of round 3
* Or “retirement,” basically. Leben verbally quit the fight after being dominated through the first round.
Hi PotatoHeads and welcome to the last card of 2013. If you were too cheap to throw down the extra $5 for the PPV, fear not, we’ve got all your results here, I’m in the best liveblogging shape of my life, refresh early and often!
Diego Brandao vs. Dustin Poirier
Round 1- Body kick to start from Poirier with a head kick from Brandao that is blocked. Good body punch from Brandao. Wild windmill from Brandao who slips but is landing some early with punches and kicks to the body. Spinning backfist lands from Poirier. Some good wild exchanges early. Overhand right drops Poirier but he’s back up. Brandao tries a clinch throw but Poirier uses an effective whizzer and stands up. Brandao completes a takedown on Poirier, who had been landing. Poirier up and unloads on Brandao with strikes, wobbling him. Brandao goes down and Poirier follows with strikes until the ref jumps in and stops it, good win for Poirier.
Dustin Poirier defeats Diego Brandao via TKO, round 1
Poirier pumped up in the post fight interview and clearly from Louisiana.
Jim Miller vs. Fabricio Camoes
Miller is looking to right the ship after alternating wins and losses lately. Camoes has to be excited to be on the main card of the end of year PPV, he’s definitely the least known fighter outside of hardcore fans but has the no-lose thing going for him here with a win or strong show.
Round 1- Leg kick from Camoes. Clinch on the fence as Camoes tries for a takedown that fails and they separate back to the feet. Two short strikes land from Camoes. Head kick blocked by Miller. Camoes cracks Miller with a left hook. Camoes continues to land, backing Miller up. Head kick caught by Miller who takes him down and lands some ground and pound. Camoes back to the feet and now gets Miller down and lands in full guard. Miller doing a good job of tying up from the bottom and threatening with submissions. Miller tightens up an armbar, Camoes defends patiently but Miller stays on it and works it tighter until Camoes is forced to tap!
Jim Miller defeats Fabricio Camoes via armbar, round 1
Miller references Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde in his interview, losing the beer soaked KO crazy crowd, but impressing all the nerds out there (hey o!)
We are now treated to the undercard fight between Gleison Tibau and Michael Johnson.
Josh Barnett vs. Travis Browne
Round 1- Browne lands first with a left hook. Barnett puts Browne against the cage where he wants to work his catch wrestling but Browne moves away and lands a few strong hooks. Barnett shoots for a takedown against the cage and Browne starts unloading elbows just like he did against Gonzaga and Barnett goes limp, he’s out and Lavigne stops the fight! Impressive KO for Browne who is rocketing to the top of the HW division.
Travis Browne defeats Josh Barnett via KO, round 1
And with three quick finishes so far we return to the undercard for Leben-Hall.
Champ Ronda Rousey vs. Miesha Tate
Round 1- Tate comes out swinging furiously but wildly. Rousey clinches up and takes Tate down but she is right back up but eating shots from Rousey as she gets put against the fence and eats more shots. Headkick from Rousey is blocked but Tate is on her back and Rousey is working strikes. Tate gets up and gets Rousey down! Shockingly Rousey throws on an armbar but it’s loose. Rousey locks on a triangle and peppers Tate from the bottom with strikes. The triangle looks tight but Tate gets out and they strike until Rousey clinches again and goes into mount, working on an arm. Tate slips out on top into guard but Rousey pulls out and they get back up. Another huge judo throw from Rousey who is on top again. Tate back to the feet and lands a nice strike. Rousey clinches and works strikes against Tate on the fence. The round ends and this is the first round 2 for Rousey in her career. 10-9 Rousey.
Round 2- Good right from Rousey and trips Tate easily. Tate hits Rousey with some good upkicks and Rousey’s mouth is open and she backs off! Tate gets up but Rousey hits another judo throw but quickly backs off. Tate having some luck with a left hook but Rousey gets her down and works for her back but Tate works back up against the cage with Rousey throwing strikes. Strong clinch works ends in a violent judo throw from Rousey who is in side control. Tate throws her legs up and around and grabs Rousey head but Rousey works out and grabs Tate’s arm. She torques it brutally and Tate’s arm is fully stretched but she doesn’t tap and somehow gets out. Tate is now caught in an inverted triangle but is defending with Rousey all over her. Round ends and saves Tate. 10-9 Rousey.
Round 3- Rousey muscles Tate into the cage and works clinch positioning. Tate lands on top out of a throw but her arm is in danger and this time Rousey cranks it at the right angle and Tate taps.
Tate tries to initiate a hand shake but Rousey is having none of it.
Ronda Rousey defeats Miesha Tate via armbar, round 3.
The crowd roundly boos Rousey who compliments Tate but says she insulted her family and cannot shake her hand. Tate gets a huge ovation from the crowd and admits Rousey was the better fighter.
Champ Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva
Silva on his way into the cage crouches and remains motionless on two separate occasions. It’s a 10 minute walk in. He is a unique legend. Weidman is all business and my girlfriend just referred to him as a “thoroughbred”.
Round 1- Touch of the gloves. Weidman shoots in and finishes on a single leg. Silva works his way up on the cage and they are clinched. Weidman cracks Silva and he staggers back. Weidman landing HUGE bombs on the ground but Silva SOMEHOW survives and ties Weidman up in full guard. Weidman is loading up on some huge shots, some of which are landing. It is hard to tell how hurt Silva is but he is still in the fight. Big elbow from Weidman and he postures up and hits him more as Silva throws upkicks and creates separation. Weidman dives in with a strike and Silva ties him up as round ends. 10-9 Weidman.
Round 2- Good low kick from Silva. Weidman wades in with strikes. Head kick from Weidman blocked. Good body kick from Weidman and Silva snaps a leg kick low on Weidman OH FUCK Silva snapped his leg. He falls back in pain and his leg fractured on the shin right above the foot on the shinbone. Fight is over.
Chris Weidman defeats Anderson Silva via TKO, round 2, doctor/ref stoppage.
Weidman classy in victory giving props to Silva as the greatest of all time. Silva is not in the cage, presumably getting medical treatment or already on the way to the hospital. My own editorializing: It sucks for Silva, of course, this could be career ending. It also sucks for Weidman who dominated the first round for the second time before winning on a crazy, unpredictable moment. He will still have to face questions about if he was for real, which he CLEARLY is. Crazy ending, great night of fights, no judges involved on the main card! Goodnight for now, thanks for reading along.
You know what the craziest thing about the UFC 168 pay-per-view price hike is? I’m actually going to pay it. That’s how badly I want to Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman II, because as amazing a troll as Chael Sonnen was, he never came close to a burning ol’ Andy as bad as Weidman just did in the above gif. There’s just something magical about those two, and the power of the gif for that matter, so we figured, “Why not combine them both into an article?”
No offense to Fabricio Camoes, but who the fuck is Fabricio Camoes and why is he fighting on the biggest main card of the year? Jim Miller may always bring it (and should finish the Brazilian inside three rounds if the bookies are to be believed), but this is a “Fight Night” main card matchup at best. Ranking:
You know what the craziest thing about the UFC 168 pay-per-view price hike is? I’m actually going to pay it. That’s how badly I want to Anderson Silva vs. Chris Weidman II, because as amazing a troll as Chael Sonnen was, he never came close to a burning ol’ Andy as bad as Weidman just did in the above gif. There’s just something magical about those two, and the power of the gif for that matter, so we figured, “Why not combine them both into an article?”
No offense to Fabricio Camoes, but who the fuck is Fabricio Camoes and why is he fighting on the biggest main card of the year? Jim Miller may always bring it (and should finish the Brazilian inside three rounds if the bookies are to be believed), but this is a “Fight Night” main card matchup at best. Ranking:
Now this is what I’m talking about — an intriguing matchup between two exciting featherweights with solid hands and sound submission games. Poirier looked great in his unanimous decision victory over Erik Koch at UFC 164, and Brandao once entered into a staring contest with a Largemouth bass and won, so this fight should be a real banger.
…what’s that, you say it was Bill Brasky who won the aforementioned staring contest? Well whatever the case, Brandao is a beast who will be riding a three fight UFC win streak (4-1 overall) into this weekend and looking to set himself up with a top 5 opponent. Let’s just hope his questionable cardio holds up against a guy like Poirier, who has shown that he can at least make it into the fourth round in his 2012 Fight of the Year with Chan Sung Jung. Ranking:
Call me crazy, but aside from proving herself to be the more laid back fighter of the two, Miesha Tate did not do a thing on TUF 18 that led me to believe she stands any better of a chance against Rousey the second time around. Tate looks to be in the best shape of her life, sure, but have you even seen Ronda Rousey (or deez odds) lately? The champ’s got a look in her eyes that would give Dr. Sam Loomis a stress-induced seizure for Christ’s sake. Combine that with her infinitely superior grappling prowess and ever-improving striking and you’ve got yourself a classic mismatch, Taters.
I would rank this rematch higher on the outside possibility that Rousey physically dismembers Tate in the octagon or beats her into retirement, but as long as Steve Mazzagatti isn’t the assigned ref, we’re likely in for another first round armbar for Rousey (not that there’s anything wrong with that). And maybe some blood-licking. Then Rousey can hopefully move onto the *actual* #1 contender she was supposed to fight in the first place. Ranking:
Without using too much hyperbole, it’s safe to say that you’d have to be in a persistent vegetative state to not be excited for this fight. It’s a battle between two of the most exciting heavyweights out there today, and a matchup that is all but guaranteed to end inside the distance and/or feature Josh Barnett saying something psychotic on the microphone.
After finally making his return to the UFC in August, Barnett made quick work of Frank Mir at UFC 164, KO’ing the former champ with a beautifully placed knee to the cranium in just under two minutes. Browne, on the other hand, is fresh off a come-from-behind KO via front kick of Alistair Overeem at Fight Night: Shogun vs. Sonnen in just over four minutes. While some are predicting that Barnett will look for the takedown early and often, I think these two are going to Rock ‘Em-Sock ‘Em until one of them tips over midway through the second. “The Warmaster” doesn’t seem to think the fight will last long either, and I’m not prepared to call this man a liar. Ranking:
Oh, like it was going to be something else? WHAT KIND OF TROLL DO YOU TAKE ME FOR?!
On the real though, Chris Weidman is going to officially end the Anderson Silva era tomorrow night. There, I said it. He will make good on Ray Longo’s promise to “punch a fucking hole” in Silva’s chest, and he will silence the cries of “fluke” once and for all. Unfortunately, his legendary victory will come at the cost of his mentor, as Matt Serra will choke to death on a chilidog ringside while shouting him advice/making fun of Longo’s hair. His last word will be “Fahgeddah.” Silva will then announce his retirement from MMA, destroy Roy Jones Jr. in a boxing match in Brazil, and reemerge in 2024 as the world’s preeminent R&B lip-syncher. These are facts. Ranking:
I don’t know what is happening in this gif, but it makes me sad.
(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)
By Dan George
I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.
OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.
While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.
(Silva and Weidman talk us through their first fight. The words “lucky” and “bullshit” are thrown around rather liberally.)
By Dan George
I trust you all had a Merry Christmas, Nation, but now it’s time to get back to business. This Saturday, quite possibly the biggest card in the history of the UFC is going down in Vegas when middleweight champion Chris Weidman (still crazy to type) attempts to become the first man to ever go 2-0 against Anderson Silva at UFC 168.
OK, so maybe it’s not the biggest (or best) card in UFC History, but the fact that those of us who plan on purchasing the card will start off an additional five dollars in the hole means that I’ve got my word cut out for me. Join me below for the pound-for-pound best gambling advice in all the Interwebz and maybe, just maybe, we will all kick off the New Year with a little extra cash in our pocket. All gambling lines courtesy of BestFightOdds.
While not as heavy a favorite as in the past, Uriah Hall has simply not shown the brilliance we saw from him while in the TUF house to warrant laying -300ish on this fight. On the other side of the spectrum you have Chris Leben, who will be looking to avoid a fourth straight loss inside the octagon and the inevitable pink slip that comes along with it. This fight feels like a loser-leaves-town match and Uriah should be able to use his angles and speed to pick Leben apart on the feet, but if he cannot finish Leben early, this fight may get ugly and this is where Leben generally shines. If you cannot resist, the -120 prop that this fight does not go past 2.5 rounds may be worth a look.
At +130, John Howard is a solid underdog pick in a fight that will most likely be won by the stronger grappler. Siyar is most likely the better striker, but Howard is well versed enough in the stand up game to avoid anything catastrophic like Paulo Thiago experienced at UFC on FUEL 2 and should be able to find a way to get Bahadurzada against the cage early and often in this fight. Siyar has 6 finishes in his last 8 fights, 5 of which came in the first round, while Howard has not been stopped in the first round of a fight since 2007. If Howard is able to get this fight into the 2nd and 3rd rounds, he most likely will do so by nullifying Siyar’s offense by mixing up striking with takedowns which may give him the nod from the judges. Howard to win.
Currently 0-2 in the octagon, Voelker has shown an ability to take punishment more than deliver punishment as of late. If he does not get off to a good start against Macario, he may very well be looking at a third consecutive loss in the UFC. The major caveat is that Macario seemed to gas in his last fight with Leonardo Santos and Voelker’s ability to take a beating and keep ticking may offer some dramatic moments if this fight gets into the 3rd round. That said, I like Macario to win here via a violent flurry early in the first round.
At -350 or higher, Jim Miller is the heavy favorite to beat Fabricio Camoes, but it is in the prop category that we find +110 for Miller to win inside the distance, which is truly the best “good dog” pick in this fight. Miller rarely plays the cautious fighter in his bouts and should look to close out this fight before the judges can get involved. Camoes is not a pushover, but has only beat Tommy Hayden inside the Octagon while Miller has consistently faced high level competition and should be able to outclass Camoes anywhere this fight takes place. +110 Miller to win inside the distance.
A veritable potpourri of plus money options are offered in this fight, but the two that are most appealing would be that a) This has FOTN written all over it and b) Poirier should win by decision. Without an official line available, the return for a FOTN should be in the neighborhood of between 5 to 7 times the wager, while +165 is the current line for Poirier to take this one on the judges’ cards. Poirier will have the height and reach advantage here while Brandao has yet to be finished in the UFC, which all points towards an exciting fight that may very well go the entire 15 minutes. Diego is also training with the last man to beat Poirier (Cub Swanson) at Jackson’s MMA and he will surely have “The Diamond” scouted heading into this tilt. Poirier +165 by decision and FOTN prop.
Barnett is currently hovering around -200 in a fight that will be determined by whether or not Barnett can get things to the mat. Browne has not been threatened with a takedown-centric approach by any of his opponents in the UFC, which should make this the toughest test of his career. Without having seen Browne face this challenge consistently throughout a fight, it is difficult to gauge whether or not he will be able to stop one of the best grapplers the HW division has to offer. Barnett should be able to put Browne on his back in this fight and find a way to either win by submission or on the scorecards. Barnett to win.
Miesha has gone on record stating that she will shoot herself in the face if she is sarmbarred by Rousey again. Rousey is between -700 to -900 at the various sports books and although she has finished all of her MMA fights inside the first round, there may be an opportunity to play the prop that this fight starts round 2 at -130. Tate surely learned something from the first fight and hopefully will be able to avoid the ground game for the first five minutes. Rousey showed in her fight with Liz Carmouche that (despite giving up her back) once engaged in a grappling contest, the armbar is all but a formality. While Tate is a solid striker, her grappling, much like any woman in the UFC, is not on Rousey’s level and Ronda will surely find a way to exploit this fact to retain her title. I pray that she does not intend to actually follow through on this. Rousey to win. UH-DUH.
The line has not moved very much since this rematch was announced. Weidman showed that “The Spider’s” antics had no effect on him and that he can outduel Silva on the ground and on the feet at less than 100% coming off a one year layoff. Why then is Silva considered the favorite after losing the first contest? Who believes that Silva has an advantage on the ground in this fight? Both questions should tip the scales in Weidman’s favor, but clearly the odds are being generated on the very same thing that cost Silva his title. The odds here suggest that Silva will be able to regain his title by out striking Weidman, and despite being KO’d in the second round at UFC 162, it seemed rather obvious that Silva had begun to connect with Weidman’s lead leg, take away the takedown threat, and take over control of the contest on the feet. Until he got too cocky, that is.
However, Weidman not only won the first fight clearly, he also won the first round very convincingly by exposing Silva’s struggles with strong grapplers. Weidman also noted that he saw Silva’s eyes roll back in his head in the first round while he delivered ground and pound to the former champ. Weidman has the tools to create this type of environment again for Silva and may be able to connect enough times to stop Silva on the ground, which is perceived to be the most probable avenue to victory for Chris in this bout. Weidman clearly can win this fight in more areas than Silva, but again, the oddsmakers have Silva pinned as the favorite for the brief moments in the second round where Silva showed how dominant he can be with his striking. Weidman has had many knee surgeries and it seemed that he began laboring in the second round when Silva began connecting. To his credit, Weidman was able to push through this and become the new champion, but his win was at least partially due to an opponent who took his foot off the gas pedal.
This time around, Silva will most likely stay focused on keeping the fight standing and attacking Weidman’s lead leg with punishing kicks, which may limit the champ’s ability to score the takedown. If Silva is able to avoid the takedown consistently and cut out the shenanigans, he should create the type of fight that will result in him regaining his title. If Weidman can take Silva down early and punish him enough, he may finish the former champ inside the first round. The fight should be a pick’em as both fighters have shown, however briefly, the ability to control their opponent in the first bout. Silva to win inside the distance, possibly 3rd round TKO stoppage.
Parlay 1
Siver-Barnett
Parlay 2
Poirier-Miller
Parlay 3
Barnett-Macario
Happy Holidays and all the best in 2014, CP Nation.
Note:Reed’s book ‘Fightnomics’ is available now on Amazon (in Kindle and paperback versions), featuring 336 pages of statistical analysis on UFC fighters and the “hidden science” behind their fights. If you’ve been a fan of his Databomb columns, pick up a copy today. A full description of the book is at the end of this post.
While cranking through some statistical analysis of fighters competing at next weekend’s UFC 168 event, I came across a few tidbits that fit the character limit for tweetability. Tweet ‘em all you want, I’ll make more.
The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.
• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.
• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.
• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.
• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.
• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.
• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.
Note:Reed’s book ‘Fightnomics’ is available now on Amazon (in Kindle and paperback versions), featuring 336 pages of statistical analysis on UFC fighters and the “hidden science” behind their fights. If you’ve been a fan of his Databomb columns, pick up a copy today. A full description of the book is at the end of this post.
While cranking through some statistical analysis of fighters competing at next weekend’s UFC 168 event, I came across a few tidbits that fit the character limit for tweetability. Tweet ‘em all you want, I’ll make more.
The Good:
• Anderson Silva has the highest Knockdown Rate of any fighter at #UFC168. 16% of his landed power head strikes cause a knockdown.
• In terms of Knockdown Rate, #UFC168 fighters Robert Peralta (14%) and Travis Browne (12%) are also way above average.
• Tibau vs Johnson at #UFC168 will be a rare Southpaw vs. Southpaw matchup, or what I call a “Cyclone fight” due to the clockwise spin.
• Mostly likely to attempt takedowns at #UFC168 is Ronda Rousey who attempts 4 TDs per 5 min. round. Not that her rounds ever last that long.
• The most active standup striker at #UFC168 is Dennis Siver, who outworks his opponents by 59% in volume while standing.
• Hardest fighter to hit at #UFC168 is Anderson Silva, who avoids 82% of all head strikes thrown at him. Still, Weidman may only need one.
• Highest takedown defense at #UFC168 are Weidman & Browne, both 100%. Neither have been taken down despite each facing 7 attempts.
• The best takedown defense at #UFC168 is really Gleison Tibau at 92% against 62 total opponent attempts; he ranks #2 all-time behind GSP.
• Ronda Rousey has 0.72 submission attempts for every minute she has spent on the ground; closest 2nd at #UFC168 is Jim Miller at 0.37.
• Jim Miller has more total submission attempts in the UFC than any other fighter at #UFC168 with 29. One more & he wins an Octagon toaster.
• Denis Siver has the biggest pace advantage at #UFC168. He averages 12.8 Significant Strikes attempts/min, while Gamburyan averages 5.4.
• At 80.5” Uriah Hall will have the longest reach of any fighter at #UFC168, and >7” reach advantage over his opponent Chris Leben.
The Bad:
• Women’s champion Ronda Rousey will have the shortest reach of any fighter on the #UFC168 card at 66 inches. #irrelevant
• Weidman, Camoes, Brandao & Hall will all be facing southpaws. Generally, orthodox fighters fare a little worse when facing southpaws.
• The lowest paced standup striker at #UFC168 is Diego Brandao, who throws >40% fewer standup strike attempts than his opponents
• Lowest takedown defense at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate who only defended 1/5 attempts for 20%. Camoes not far behind (25%). But small samples.
• When fighting on the ground, Michael Johnson, Robert Peralta and Anderson Silva all mostly end up on their backs #UFC168
• Jim Miller and John Howard have both been swept for a ground position reversal 6 times by opponents, more than other fighters at #UFC168.
• 170’er William Macario is the only #UFC fighter ever who actually goes by the name “William.” There were 3 “Will”s though, and a “Willamy.”
The Ugly:
• Worst head striking defense at #UFC168 is Bobby Voelker, who only defends 57% of head strikes by opponents. Anderson Silva’s is best (82%).
• Both Rousey & Tate have very low head strike defense, meaning if they stand and trade they’re both going to look less pretty. #UFC168
• Denis Siver has suffered 6 knockdowns in his UFC career, more than anyone at #UFC168, despite having above average head strike defense.
• At 38.7 years old, Anderson Silva is the oldest fighter at #UFC168, meaning he is less likely to be submitted, but more likely to be KO’d.
• The worst Knockdown Resiliency rating at #UFC168 is Miesha Tate at 91%. She has suffered 3 knockdowns in Strikeforce/UFC.
• Despite having been KO’d by Weidman, Silva is still a -150 favorite at #UFC168, on par with when he fought Henderson -145 & Marquardt -150.
• Fabricio Camoes has the worst relative striking overall at #UFC168. His stats are below average in accuracy, power, pace & cage control.
• The final prelim bout pits some of the best head strike defense (Hall) vs some of the worst (Leben). Lots at stake in that fight. #UFC168
Fightnomics quantifies the underlying drivers of the world’s most exciting and fastest growing sport through deep analysis of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) competition. Part Freakonomics and part Moneyball, Fightnomics is a statistical spotlight on the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) and the fighters who compete in the Octagon.
Does size matter?
Is the Southpaw Advantage real for MMA?
Is it better to be young or experienced in a fight?
How is the UFC Tale of the Tape lying to us?
What makes a strike significant?
What about Ring Rust, Octagon Jitters, or the Home Cage Advantage?
Just how accurate are betting odds?
Theories about how MMA works get put to the test with a little bit of science, and a whole lot of numbers. Fightnomics is the deepest and most complete analysis to date of historical UFC data that answers common, yet hotly debated questions about the sport. The fight game will never quite look the same once you’ve learned what really matters in a cage fight, and even a few surprising things that don’t.
