Tag: Fantasy

UFC Fight Night Saskatoon: Best DraftKings Picks for Holloway vs. Oliveira Card

The UFC Fight Night Saskatoon card on Sunday doesn’t have a ton of overwhelming favorites. Because of that, you don’t have to worry about drafting the surefire winner while still filling out the rest of your lineup with fighters you don’t trust to emer…

The UFC Fight Night Saskatoon card on Sunday doesn’t have a ton of overwhelming favorites. Because of that, you don’t have to worry about drafting the surefire winner while still filling out the rest of your lineup with fighters you don’t trust to emerge victorious. 

However, you will have to make the right pick in several close, hard-to-call bouts between evenly matched fighters. Here’s a little help:

 

Misha Cirkunov ($11,100)

The highest-priced fighter at UFC Fight Night Saskatoon is Misha Cirkunov. His original opponent, Sean O’Connell, was forced to bow out due to injury, per Tristen Crutchfield of Sherdog.com. His replacement is going to get smashed.

Daniel Jolly is undefeated, but he’s only had five fights. Cirkunov is a Latvian wrecking ball who will be eager to impress in his UFC debut. Cirkunov has finished opponents in seven of his nine wins. That includes four straight, and all of those were by finish. Cirkunov‘s kryptonite might be opponents with strong wrestling, submission and takedowns, but Jolly doesn’t fit the profile.

Cirkunov will run that streak to five with a finish over a late replacement.

 

Neil Magny ($9,000)

After being completely dominated a little over three weeks ago, Neil Magny is in a hurry to jump back into the Octagon to redeem himself. To put it plainly, Demian Maia’s Brazilian jiu-jitsu prowess overwhelmed Magny at UFC 190.

On Sunday, Magny will face another Brazilian in Erick Silva, but the latter isn’t quite as skilled on the ground as Maia. Silva likes to strike and brawl, but Magny‘s abnormally long arms won’t allow him to experience much success on the feet. 

Despite the way he was misused by Maia, Magny‘s ground game is actually solid. It’s going to be difficult for him to get a finish against Silva. The Brazilian is tough as nails and Magny‘s not a huge striker. But a unanimous-decision victory for the American and a decent fantasy performance are likely.

 

Marcos Rogerio de Lima ($9,900)

If Nikita Krylov fought more smartly, he’d be one of the best young light heavyweights in the UFC. He has an advanced submission game, but he too often allows himself to be dragged into brawls.

That’s not a good tendency heading into a battle with Marcos Rogerio de Lima. The man they call Pezao has 10 wins by KO. He’s a destructive striker who has only been stopped by strikes once in his career.

If Krylov stands with him—as I suspect he will—the Russian will be stopped.

 

Patrick Cote ($9,400)

On almost every UFC card, you’re going to have to fill one of the spots in your DraftKings lineup with a guy or girl you either expect to lose, or an underdog that you believe has an outside shot to win. Patrick Cote often fits both of those profiles.

The grizzled veteran will take on John Burkman in a battle that has Fight of the Night potential.

Burkman has a slightly higher salary, but I’m not sure that’s founded. He’s gone five fights in the UFC without a win, and while Cote has a low athletic ceiling, he’s at least proven he knows how to have his hand raised. 

The Canadian has won three of his last four, and he should be energized performing in front of fans in his home country. He’s the best pick in this fight.

 

Max Holloway ($10,600)

The time has finally come for Max Holloway to become a serious contender in the UFC featherweight division. He took some tough losses taking on top-level competition too early in his career. Though he’s still just 23 years old, Holloway is ready to take a major step. 

The 25-year-old Charles Oliveira may have the same thing on his mind. He’s proven to be a dangerous grappler and striker. Oliveira would do well to take this fight to the ground, where he might have a slight advantage.

While he’s recorded six wins by stoppage, his submission skills are outstanding. Holloway has to know the score in this matchup.

In his career, he has stopped 78 percent of the takedowns attempted against him. He’ll keep the fight standing and use his elite-level boxing to win rounds early.

In the latter rounds of what figures to be a great fight, Holloway will score a TKO as he wears down the Brazilian with cumulative punishment.

Mark it down.

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UFC 190: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Ronda Rousey vs. Bethe Correia Card

Ronda Rousey is going to beat Bethe Correia, but you shouldn’t draft her in a UFC 190 DraftKings contest.
There’s almost no conceivable way Correia can beat the UFC women’s bantamweight champion—even with the event taking place in the challenger’…

Ronda Rousey is going to beat Bethe Correia, but you shouldn’t draft her in a UFC 190 DraftKings contest.

There’s almost no conceivable way Correia can beat the UFC women’s bantamweight champion—even with the event taking place in the challenger’s home country of Brazil. But there’s two major reasons why Rousey isn’t a smart pick in a DraftKings contest.

First off, her DK salary is about as high as you’ll ever see for one fighter at $12,200. That makes it virtually impossible for you to draft any of the other favorites. 

There should be serious concern as to whether you’ll be able to tab other winners from the card, and it just about eliminates the opportunity to draft other favorites.

Secondly, there’s some belief that Rousey wants to punish Correia. That could mean Rousey will allow the fight to last more than one round so that she can inflict more damage. That might score some style points, but it will diminish the amount of fantasy points Rousey earns for your lineup.

Rousey‘s a lock to win, but due to the dynamics of the UFC 190 card, it’s best to avoid picking the most dangerous unarmed woman in the world.

Here’s my optimal lineup for UFC 190:

 

Soa Palelei ($10,600) vs. Antonio Silva

This pick is as much about who Antonio “Bigfoot” Silva isn’t any longer as it is who Soa Palelei is as a fighter. The latter is a big, strong, powerful striker and accomplished submissions fighter. He’s dangerous against most heavyweights.

Silva has been in his share of huge fights and even pulled out some big wins over the likes of Alistair Overeem and the legendary Fedor Emelianenko. That said, Bigfoot is spent.

The 35-year-old Brazilian hasn’t won a fight in three years and has lost five of his last eight bouts. Palelei hasn’t been stopped since 2010 when he submitted to Daniel Cormier from punches when the two were with XMMA. Palelei has lost just one fight in that time span, and all 22 of his wins have come by stoppage (18 KO, four submissions). If he’s winning, it’s not going the distance.

Palelei will win this bout in smashing fashion, and it won’t last beyond the first round.

 

Patrick Cummins ($10,600) vs. Rafael Cavalcante

Ryan Bader dominated Rafael Cavalcante with his wrestling and top control in their bout back in April 2015. Expect Patrick Cummins to utilize the same game plan when he takes on the Brazilian.

Cummins is a two-time Division I All-American from Penn State. His ground game is among the best in the sport, and fighters with that skill level can dismantle him as long as they don’t attempt to stand and trade punches.

Cavalcante owns wins over established wrestlers such as Yoel Romero and Muhammed Lawal, but the mistake Romero and Lawal made was to try and win a stand-up battle. Cummins won’t make that mistake. He knows who he is and won’t deviate from his best plan of attack.

A ground-and-pound finish is possible, as is a second-round submission.

 

Stefan Struve ($10,800) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

This fight is somewhat similar to the Palelei vs. Silva battle. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira is a Brazilian legend, but recent history suggests the 39-year-old is way past his prime. He’s lost his last two fights with each loss coming by way of stoppage.

Roy Nelson knocked him out in August 2014 and Fabricio Werdum submitted him in June 2013. There’s a good chance Nogueira is just about done winning in the UFC unless he’s given a cookie in his last fight a la Mark Munoz.

Stefan “The Skyscraper” Struve is in no way an elite heavyweight. The 7-footer has good power, incredible length and a ton of heart, but he’s easy to hit and his chin has given way in six of his seven losses. The only issue here is that Nogueira isn’t known for his punching power.

Just three of his 34 wins have come by strikes, which means he’ll likely have to take the tall timber down to get the win. At Nogueira’s advanced age, that’s a risky proposition. It seems far more likely that Struve catches Nogueira with a big shot that sets up a KO victory for the Skyscraper.

 

Neil Magny ($9,000) vs. Demian Maia

Normally, any fighter facing Demian Maia is at a huge disadvantage when it comes to grappling. However, in this matchup, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu master won’t have as big of an edge over his opponent. Neil Magny is perhaps the most improved fighter in the promotion over the last three years. The 27-year-old veteran has won seven fights in a row and is a legitimate contender at 170 pounds.

Magny‘s ground game has become formidable, as evidenced by his last two wins (against Hyun Gyu Lim and Kiichi Kunimoto). Magny used his long 6’3″ frame to control his opponents on the mat, securing a TKO and submission victory in the bouts, respectively.

Magny may not be equal or superior to Maia on the ground, but he’s good enough there to hold his own. His length and superior athleticism give him an edge in striking and the inside track on an upset.

 

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira ($8,900) vs. Shogun Rua

Like his twin brother, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira has been through his share of wars, and there’s unquestionable wear on his pugilistic treads. That said, he’s probably in better shape than his opponent.

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua has lost seven of his last 11 fights, and four of the defeats have come by stoppage. Even some of his wins in that time have been brutal back-and-forth scraps.

Ovince St. Preux and Dan Henderson viciously stopped Rua in his last two fights. If there’s ever been a legend who needs to hang up the gloves, it’s Rua. Despite the fact that Shogun has a higher DK salary, this looks like a fight he could lose and ultimately put a firm stamp on the end of his fighting career.

 

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UFC 189: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Mendes vs. McGregor Fight Card

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor’s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s o…

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.

McGregor‘s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s only had to stop five takedown attempts in his UFC career, and none of those have been attempted by a wrestler on par with Mendes.

Originally, McGregor was supposed to be facing UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, but the latter had to bow out because of a rib injury. Mendes stepped up to take his place and fight McGregor for an interim title. 

Some might be pointing to Mendes‘ short camp as a reason to pick McGregor. Instead, McGregor will be burned by facing an entirely different style of fighter than the one he’d prepared to face for weeks. Aldo is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, but he prefers to do his damage on the feet.

That style more plays into McGregor‘s hands as he is a tall and powerful striker who has hurt every 145-pound fighter he’s laid a glove on. Mendes has big-time punching power, but he’s also the best wrestler in the weight class. He has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rate. That’s pretty high considering the caliber of fighters Mendes has faced in the UFC.

McGregor won’t be able to keep Mendes from taking him down. Once Money gets him down, he’ll pound him out en route to a TKO victory and a huge return on investment for DraftKings players who select him for $9,600. 

Here’s a look at my entire lineup for UFC 189:

 

Thomas Almeida ($11,200) vs. Brad Pickett

I’ve said this for the last six months: The next major superstar in the UFC is Thomas Almeida. His striking is already on another level, and it simply gets better each time you watch him. Almeida is averaging 100.3 fantasy points per bout in the UFC. McGregor is the only fighter on the card with a higher average.

The undefeated 23-year-old is going to mow down the over-the-hill and undersized Brad Pickett on Saturday.

If this fight gets out of the first round, it’ll be a miracle.

Almeida is faster, 13 years younger and a better technical striker than Pickett. Almeida is also a big 135-pounder who will likely look like a giant in the Octagon next to Pickett on fight night. While his price tag is high, Almeida will be worth every virtual penny.

Damon Martin of UFC.com agrees. He writes:

Pickett will certainly stand in the pocket and exchange with anybody and Almeida is probably no different, but the Brazilian is much more technical and dangerous on his feet. Almeida could become a title contender one day, so his performance should be something special and this might be a passing of the torch as Pickett anoints the Brazilian prospect as the next big thing at 135 pounds after their fight is finished at UFC 189.

 

Tim Means ($8,900) vs. Matt Brown

The best budget pick on the card is Tim “Dirty Bird” Means at $8,900. He’s facing the seemingly ineradicable Matt Brown, but this one is going to be interesting. Means has been on a tear as of late, but it’s true, none of those wins have come over fighters of Brown’s caliber.

However, if you’ve watched Means in these bouts, you’ll see the quality of his performances supersede the level of competition. He’s been busy and effective with his striking. He’s averaged 110 significant strike attempts per fight in his last four bouts, and he’s landed 199 of them.

In his career, he’s defended 65 percent of the strikes thrown at him. Brown can be wild and out of control at times. This can be a major issue against a more technical and cerebral opponent.

Means is the more technically sound fighter, and I think he sets up a late submission win over Brown with counter striking through the first two rounds.

 

Gunnar Nelson ($9,200) vs. Brandon Thatch

This bout is an excellent clash between contrasting styles. Gunnar Nelson gets the edge because Brandon Thatch was unimpressive with his takedown defense and poise on the ground against Benson Henderson in his last fight.

Facing an elite grappler like Nelson, those deficiencies will be exploited. Nelson’s sneaky striking will help to set up the takedown, and he’ll ultimately outwork Thatch on the ground and earn the submission victory.

 

Cody Garbrandt (11,000) vs. Henry Briones

If you had to rank the fighters most likely to get knocked out in the first round on Saturday, Henry Briones would have to be close to the top of the list.

Not only is Garbrandt an explosive and ferocious young striker, Briones‘ defense looked suspect in his UFC debut. He absorbed 5.2 strikes per minute and only stopped 52 percent of the strikes thrown against him.

When facing a fighter like Garbrandt, that type of defense will get Briones folded up like a lawn chair. Garbrandt is worth the 11K of DK salary.

All stats per FightMetric.com unless otherwise stated.

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UFC 189: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Mendes vs. McGregor Fight Card

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.
McGregor’s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s o…

“The Notorious” Conor McGregor has been an awesome self-promoter and he’s a heck of a stand-up fighter, but he’s going to lose to Chad “Money” Mendes on Saturday night in Las Vegas at UFC 189.

McGregor‘s 100 percent takedown defense is a facade. He’s only had to stop five takedown attempts in his UFC career, and none of those have been attempted by a wrestler on par with Mendes.

Originally, McGregor was supposed to be facing UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo, but the latter had to bow out because of a rib injury. Mendes stepped up to take his place and fight McGregor for an interim title. 

Some might be pointing to Mendes‘ short camp as a reason to pick McGregor. Instead, McGregor will be burned by facing an entirely different style of fighter than the one he’d prepared to face for weeks. Aldo is a skilled Brazilian jiu-jitsu artist, but he prefers to do his damage on the feet.

That style more plays into McGregor‘s hands as he is a tall and powerful striker who has hurt every 145-pound fighter he’s laid a glove on. Mendes has big-time punching power, but he’s also the best wrestler in the weight class. He has a 54 percent takedown accuracy rate. That’s pretty high considering the caliber of fighters Mendes has faced in the UFC.

McGregor won’t be able to keep Mendes from taking him down. Once Money gets him down, he’ll pound him out en route to a TKO victory and a huge return on investment for DraftKings players who select him for $9,600. 

Here’s a look at my entire lineup for UFC 189:

 

Thomas Almeida ($11,200) vs. Brad Pickett

I’ve said this for the last six months: The next major superstar in the UFC is Thomas Almeida. His striking is already on another level, and it simply gets better each time you watch him. Almeida is averaging 100.3 fantasy points per bout in the UFC. McGregor is the only fighter on the card with a higher average.

The undefeated 23-year-old is going to mow down the over-the-hill and undersized Brad Pickett on Saturday.

If this fight gets out of the first round, it’ll be a miracle.

Almeida is faster, 13 years younger and a better technical striker than Pickett. Almeida is also a big 135-pounder who will likely look like a giant in the Octagon next to Pickett on fight night. While his price tag is high, Almeida will be worth every virtual penny.

Damon Martin of UFC.com agrees. He writes:

Pickett will certainly stand in the pocket and exchange with anybody and Almeida is probably no different, but the Brazilian is much more technical and dangerous on his feet. Almeida could become a title contender one day, so his performance should be something special and this might be a passing of the torch as Pickett anoints the Brazilian prospect as the next big thing at 135 pounds after their fight is finished at UFC 189.

 

Tim Means ($8,900) vs. Matt Brown

The best budget pick on the card is Tim “Dirty Bird” Means at $8,900. He’s facing the seemingly ineradicable Matt Brown, but this one is going to be interesting. Means has been on a tear as of late, but it’s true, none of those wins have come over fighters of Brown’s caliber.

However, if you’ve watched Means in these bouts, you’ll see the quality of his performances supersede the level of competition. He’s been busy and effective with his striking. He’s averaged 110 significant strike attempts per fight in his last four bouts, and he’s landed 199 of them.

In his career, he’s defended 65 percent of the strikes thrown at him. Brown can be wild and out of control at times. This can be a major issue against a more technical and cerebral opponent.

Means is the more technically sound fighter, and I think he sets up a late submission win over Brown with counter striking through the first two rounds.

 

Gunnar Nelson ($9,200) vs. Brandon Thatch

This bout is an excellent clash between contrasting styles. Gunnar Nelson gets the edge because Brandon Thatch was unimpressive with his takedown defense and poise on the ground against Benson Henderson in his last fight.

Facing an elite grappler like Nelson, those deficiencies will be exploited. Nelson’s sneaky striking will help to set up the takedown, and he’ll ultimately outwork Thatch on the ground and earn the submission victory.

 

Cody Garbrandt (11,000) vs. Henry Briones

If you had to rank the fighters most likely to get knocked out in the first round on Saturday, Henry Briones would have to be close to the top of the list.

Not only is Garbrandt an explosive and ferocious young striker, Briones‘ defense looked suspect in his UFC debut. He absorbed 5.2 strikes per minute and only stopped 52 percent of the strikes thrown against him.

When facing a fighter like Garbrandt, that type of defense will get Briones folded up like a lawn chair. Garbrandt is worth the 11K of DK salary.

All stats per FightMetric.com unless otherwise stated.

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UFC 188: Best DraftKings Fantasy Picks for Velasquez vs. Werdum Fight Card

Prepare yourself for a bold prediction and an alternative DraftKings lineup. There’s some traditional picks in this five-fighter list, but the boldness begins with the selection of Fabricio Werdum over Cain Velasquez in the main event. Velasquez is the reigning UFC heavyweight champion and has been since December 2012 when he avenged his loss to […]

Prepare yourself for a bold prediction and an alternative DraftKings lineup. There’s some traditional picks in this five-fighter list, but the boldness begins with the selection of Fabricio Werdum over Cain Velasquez in the main event. Velasquez is the reigning UFC heavyweight champion and has been since December 2012 when he avenged his loss to […]

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UFC Fantasy Matchmaker: May 2015 Edition

There is an art to matchmaking in combat sports. While some fights come together with natural ease, most bouts come about through a hectic process of evaluation. Several aspects need to be graded on each side of the table before committing to the matchup. Whether or not a fight makes sense in the divisional scheme, […]

There is an art to matchmaking in combat sports. While some fights come together with natural ease, most bouts come about through a hectic process of evaluation. Several aspects need to be graded on each side of the table before committing to the matchup. Whether or not a fight makes sense in the divisional scheme, […]

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