Tag: gambling odds

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FOX 3 Edition

On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day. 

Main Card 
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Pat Barry (-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (+175)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (+100)
Rousimar Palhares (-280) vs. Alan Belcher (+240)

Preliminary Card
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
 John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*

*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights. 

Thoughts…

On the heels of what was a hugely successful (both in terms of action and PPV sales) UFC 145, the UFC will look to keep the momentum going with this weekend’s UFC on FOX 3 card, which features a smorgasbord of great match-ups (praise be to Joe Silva). And the only way to make a great thing even better would be to walk away with a little extra moolah, don’t you think? Because, to paraphrase what Bobby McFerrin once said, “If you don’t have cash, you don’t have style, and you sure as hell don’t have a gal to make you smile.” Something like that. So check out the tasty betting lines below, courtesy of BestFightOdds, and follow us after the jump for some sound advice that will surely score you one out of the three McFerrin keys to success. And don’t worry, none of the spreads are as insane as the current Akihiro Gono/Michael Chandler odds, which more closely resemble your chances of sleeping with Halle Berry, winning the lottery, and surviving a public bus fire in the same day. 

Main Card 
Jim Miller (-220) vs. Nate Diaz (+180)
Pat Barry (-210) vs. Lavar Johnson (+175)
Johny Hendricks (-120) vs. Josh Koscheck (+100)
Rousimar Palhares (-280) vs. Alan Belcher (+240)

Preliminary Card
Dennis Bermudez (-175) vs. Pablo Garza (+145)
Tony Ferguson (-270) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
 John Dodson (-400) vs. Tim Elliot (+300)*
Pascal Krause (-140) vs. John Hathaway (+110)*
John Linker (-150) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+120)*
John Cholish (-130) vs. Danny Castillo (EV)*
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Nick Denis (EV)*
Mike Massenzio (-185) vs. Karlos Vemola (+145)*

*These lines are taken from Opposingviews.com, which has far different lines than BestFightOdds for the main card fights. They are the only site, however, with current odds for the given fights. 

Thoughts…

The Main Event: A lot is on the line for Nate Diaz come Saturday night. Sure, he’s looked nothing short of perfect in his victories over Takanori Gomi and Donald Cerrone, but Jim Miller is not a technically flawed striker in the twilight of his career, nor is he a brawler that will let his pre-fight emotions get the best of him. We all know that this fight is going to come down to a Diaz’s ability to stop a takedown, which has proved to be their undoing time and time again. That being said, we will NEVER count a Diaz out. Their ability to make a fighter look completely off their game is second to none, and they have few holes in their game to exploit (wrestling aside, of course). We’d recommend keeping Miller in your parlay, but placing a decent-sized side wager on Diaz is definitely a smart move.

The Dogs: Anytime Josh Koscheck is listed as an underdog, it’s probably worth your time (unless he’s fighting GSP). A bet on him won’t get you much in return, but the same goes twice over for Hendricks. There are several things to consider when looking at this matchup. First off, let’s look at the obvious: both guys come from a wrestling background, and both guys have solid power in their hands. Secondly, let’s look at their last fights: Kos looked rather one-dimensional in his squeaker victory over Mike Pierce, whereas Hendricks showed us that he only needs one punch to turn your lights off against Jon Fitch. Where you want to place your bet is mainly dependent on whether or not you think Hendricks will be able to defend Kos’ takedowns, or whether he can finish him before he’ll have to. Then again, maybe Koscheck’s new training camp has helped him add a few tools to his toolbox. What we’re saying is; a vote for Koscheck is a vote for tools.

At +240, Alan Belcher would look pretty damn tempting…if he wasn’t fighting a genetically engineered, psychopathic wildebeest in Rousimar Palhares. With and ever-improving striking game, as documented in his typically disorienting win over Dan Miller, ”Toquinho” has made the step up from “mini-Hulk” to full-on “eater of worlds,” and there’s nothing we can do to stop him. Unless Belcher catches Palhares early, he is going to be limping out of that octagon. The ONLY reason we are going to place a small bet on “The Talent” is because of the large chance that this fight will end by some form of DQ as a result of Palhares’ frenetic incompetence. Also, we’re masochists. Also, Belcher’s Johnny Cash tattoo.

As for the undercard, one name that stands out is John Hathaway. For a while, many people thought he was going to be the next big thing at 170. A loss to Mike Pyle all but derailed his hype train, and the fact that he’s spent a year on the shelf doesn’t help matters. Until you look at Pascal Krauss, that is, who has spent even more time on the shelf nursing various injuries, and whose only UFC win came over a late injury replacement. Hathaway should have this, just like he would have had it if these two had met at UFC 138 like God intended.

Stay the Hell Away From: The Lavar Johnson/Barry brawl. Barry is undoubtedly the more technical striker, but Johnson has a pair of Mac trucks at the end of his arms, and we’ve seen Barry fall to an inferior striker before (seriously, TRY and convince us Cheick Kongo was anything but). We think Barry will be able to catch Johnson first, but if you really want to place money on this one, save it for a prop bet on whether or not the fight lasts over a round and a half. Our bet is it doesn’t.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Palhares + Ferguson

Suggested stake for a $50 wager
$25 on the parlay
$10 on a Diaz-Hathaway parlay
$10 on Koscheck
$5 on Belcher

-J. Jones

Oddsmakers Dub Dan Henderson a Massive Underdog Against Jon Jones

(Video: YouTube/BetDSI)

Last weekend Jon Jones followed up what was arguably the most dominant year in MMA history with an impressive victory over arch-nemesis Rashad Evans. Having toppled four consecutive UFC champions, “Bones” is so far ahead of the pack at 205lbs that he can barely reach them with his jab, and as he heads into his next bout against living-legend Dan Henderson it looks like everyone is putting their money on the champ. Well, you know, not *everyone*.

MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has crunched the numbers for the Bones-Hendo affair and the odds are not kind to the former Pride and Strikeforce champion. Jones is opening up at -545 while the 41-year-old Henderson comes in as a big ‘dog at +385. So, he’s basically giving Dan as little of a chance as the rest of Bones’ challengers, only we still have plenty of time for the line to move.

(Video: YouTube/BetDSI)

Last weekend Jon Jones followed up what was arguably the most dominant year in MMA history with an impressive victory over arch-nemesis Rashad Evans. Having toppled four consecutive UFC champions, “Bones” is so far ahead of the pack at 205lbs that he can barely reach them with his jab, and as he heads into his next bout against living-legend Dan Henderson it looks like everyone is putting their money on the champ. Well, you know, not *everyone*.

MMA oddsmaker Nick Kalikas has crunched the numbers for the Bones-Hendo affair and the odds are not kind to the former Pride and Strikeforce champion. Jones is opening up at -545 while the 41-year-old Henderson comes in as a big ‘dog at +385. So, he’s basically giving Dan as little of a chance as the rest of Bones’ challengers, only we still have plenty of time for the line to move.

Henderson may not have ended 2011 with UFC gold around his waist, but he wasn’t exactly sitting on his ass last year either. After H-Bombing the Strikeforce Light Heavyweight belt off of “Feijao” last March, Henderson pounded the final nail into Fedor Emelianenko’s Strikeforce-shaped coffin then headed home to the UFC where he and Shogun proceeded to beat the tar out of one another in the battle of the millennium.

Henderson’s pedigree speaks for itself, but it’s hard to picture anyone taking out Jones right now. Still, with these odds in mind, who are you emptying your wallet on?

Who You Should Bet On at Bellator 61


(Two words: Stanky toe.) 

We’re in the midst of the longest MMA drought of the year, Potato Nation. With only one UFC and one Strikeforce event scheduled in the next month, the gambling addicts within the CP staff are damn near starving to death. Seriously, we’ve been forced to start taking bets on things like: how long Karma can grow his fingernails before he scratches someone’s eyes out, the IQ of BG’s child (currently), and which cockroach in Danga’s apartment will finally die of lead poisoning.

Perhaps it’s a sign of how far the sport has come in the past few years that we expect a card every couple weeks; pehaps it is just a sign of our greed. In either case, Bellator has stepped up to fill the void left behind by all the major organizations, and thankfully so. With three events planned in the next two weeks, it presents a perfect opportunity to get some bad picks and ridiculous parlays out of your system before it really costs you.

Despite the main event being cancelled at the last second, tonight’s Bellator 61 card still presents some intriguing match-ups and more than a couple ways to come out with a more padded wallet to spend on tomorrows festivities, ie. green colored beer and an end of the night stomach pumping. But let’s get one thing straight, this is not your mamma’s Gambling Addiction Enabler, this is a sort of similar yet entirely different monster. CagePotato can not be held accountable for the following betting advice, so read at your own risk.

First, let’s take a look at the card…


(Two words: Stanky toe.) 

We’re in the midst of the longest MMA drought of the year, Potato Nation. With only one UFC and one Strikeforce event scheduled in the next month, the gambling addicts within the CP staff are damn near starving to death. Seriously, we’ve been forced to start taking bets on things like: how long Karma can grow his fingernails before he scratches someone’s eyes out, the IQ of BG’s child (currently), and which cockroach in Danga’s apartment will finally die of lead poisoning.

Perhaps it’s a sign of how far the sport has come in the past few years that we expect a card every couple weeks; pehaps it is just a sign of our greed. In either case, Bellator has stepped up to fill the void left behind by all the major organizations, and thankfully so. With three events planned in the next two weeks, it presents a perfect opportunity to get some bad picks and ridiculous parlays out of your system before it really costs you.

Despite the main event being cancelled at the last second, tonight’s Bellator 61 card still presents some intriguing match-ups and more than a couple ways to come out with a more padded wallet to spend on tomorrows festivities, ie. green colored beer and an end of the night stomach pumping. But let’s get one thing straight, this is not your mamma’s Gambling Addiction Enabler, this is a sort of similar yet entirely different monster. CagePotato can not be held accountable for the following betting advice, so read at your own risk.

First, let’s take a look at the card…

Main Card
Maiquel Falcao vs. Norman Paraisy
Vitor Vianna vs. Brian Rogers
Vyacheslav Vasilevsky vs. Victor O’Donnell
Giva Santana vs. Bruno Santos

Preliminary Card 
Brent Taylor vs. Josh Quayhagen
Trey Houston vs. Jeremiah Riggs
Derrick Krantz vs. Eric Scallan
Jeremy Myers vs. Jason Sampson

The preliminary card currently has no betting lines available, so we’ll focus on just the middleweight quarterfinals for the time being.

Let’s start with Falcao vs. Paraisy. Despite suffering a heart attack back in November, Falcao is currently listed at -330 over at BestFightOdds.com, a line that is a little inflated to say the least. Falcao is a walking paradox, a man who likes to end his fights early yet can’t seem to stop punching once he has started, regardless of what the ref or timekeeper says. He is so used to the first round, in fact, that in his only appearance in the UFC (against Gerald Harris at UFC 123), it appeared as if he forgot how to fight once he reached the third round. Paraisy, on the other hand, is likely getting such a bad billing because his last Bellator performance (Bellator 3-4 in 2009) resulted in a third round submission loss to Dave Menne. Since then, however, he’s reeled off five wins and a draw, including wins over Paulo Filho and Jack Mason. He’s also never been knocked out. Though that means nothing against a guy like Falcao in the early going, Paraisy’s superior cardio and strong wrestling base could prove to pay dividends in the latter rounds. Our advice, put Falcao in your parlay, and place a small side bet of maybe twenty or thirty dollars on Paraisy, depending on what your cash situation is.

The Rogers/Vianna and Santos/Santana fights aren’t worth betting on alone, but as far as adding to your parlay’s goes, the smart money is on Vianna (-125) and Santana (-115). Rogers has some power in his hands, but the same goes for Vianna, who also adds a ridiculous list of grappling credentials to his credit including 2 world BJJ Championships, 6 Brazilian national champions, and an ADCC NO GI trials runner up spot. He will dictate where this fight takes place, and should be good pick over Rogers. That being said, four once gloves can put anyone to sleep, so a small bet on Rogers wouldn’t hurt.

As we all know, Giva Santana is one of the greatest one trick ponies the sport has ever seen, collecting 13 arm bar wins in just 18 fights. Santos, however, has only finished two opponents in twelve fights, and despite being undefeated, should be listed as more of a dog here. He’s a grinder with severely limited striking skills who lacks the kind of speed of aggression that could put Giva in any sort of trouble. He’ll be looking to hold “The Arm Collector” down, a notion that will prove deadly when faced with Santana’s explosive guard. Santana is a lock, so don’t hesitate to throw him in your parlay as well.

That takes us to our last main card fight, Vitor O’Donnell (+235) vs. Vyacheslav Vasilevsky (-255). O’Donnell is primarily a grappler, scoring nine of his 11 wins by way of submission. He is also coming off a knockout loss to Brian Rogers at Bellator 50. Yes, many said the fight was stopped short, which I’m not really going to comment on; a KO loss is a KO loss. Rogers, though a beast in his own right, is nowhere near as well rounded Vasilevsky is. A two time world Sambo champion, former judo champion, and 2010 M-1 Global Light Heavyweight champion, Vasilevsky has been waiting sixteen fights for his coming out party, compiling a 15-1 record in that time, and should steamroll O’Donnell, barring any last second jitters. He is well versed in submissions and too good on the feet, so look for a quick and violent finish to this one.

So to sum up, place 50 to 75 dollars on a Falcao-Vianna-Santana-Vasilevsky parlay, which will net you $391.32 on the high end. That is a steal considering you are betting on all favorites. And if you’re feeling up to it, place a small side bet of 20 to 30 dollars on Paraisy-Rogers parlay, which could still double your total investment if your parlay goes to shit.

-J. Jones 

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC on FX Edition


(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.) 

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts, but as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Undercard
Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)

Thoughts…


(I got blood on my hands and there’s no remorse, I got blood on my…well, you get the point.) 

We’ll be completely honest, folks, it has been awhile since the official CagePotato Parlay has shown us a return worth getting excited about, or any return for that matter. Bill collectors were ignored, drugs were peddled, and we even had to turn a trick or two to solve our gambling debts. But as they say, it is always darkest before the dawn. Last week, we actually managed to end up in the green, so what better opportunity to keep the ball rolling than the UFC’s debut on FX tomorrow? Check out the betting lines, courtesy of BestFightOdds, along with our advice below.

Main Card
Pat Barry (-165) vs. Christian Morecraft (+145)
Mike Easton (-340) vs. Jared Papazian (+280)
Duane Ludwig (-110) vs. Josh Neer (-110)
Jim Miller (-170) vs. Melvin Guillard (+150)

Undercard
Nick Denis (-240) vs. Joseph Sandoval (+200)
Daniel Pineda (-120) vs. Pat Schilling (EV)
Fabricio Camoes (-325) vs. Tom Hayden (+265)
Kamal Shalorus (-135) vs. Habib Nurmagomedov (+115)
Charlie Brenneman (-300) vs. Daniel Roberts (+250)
Eric Schafer (-155) vs. Jorge Rivera (+135)

Thoughts…

The Main Event: Here’s what we know; Melvin Guillard may just be the hardest hitting 155er in the UFC, and has greatly improved his takedown defense over the years. What we also know is that Melvin recently decided to leave the team responsible for his recent success to join a camp that allowed Anthony Johnson to show up twelve pounds overweight at the UFC 142 weigh-ins. Oh yeah, and he doesn’t exactly have a ground game worth bragging about, and against a Jiu-Jitsu ace like Miller, that spells trouble.

On the contrary, Jim Miller is a smart, well rounded fighter who has been impossible to knock out thus far in his career. Is that saying Melvin can’t knock him out? Well, allow us to answer that question with a question; did anyone expect Guillard to steamroll Evan Dunham like he did? That being said, Miller is the worst kind of match-up for Guillard, and he should be able to snatch up a submission within three rounds.

The Good Dogs: Off the bat, Jorge Rivera looks good at +135. Though he’s dropped two straight, he’s got some serious power in his punches, and is facing a consistent UFC under-performer in Eric Schafer. This one really depends on whether or not “Red” can get it to the mat; if Jorge can stick-and-move, he’s got this one. Another name that stands out is one you probably won’t recognize, Habib Nurmagomedov. The man is 16-0 with an even KO to submission ratio, and is facing a toguh but flawed fighter in Kamal Shalorus. “The Price of Persia” has not fought since being TKO’ed by Jim Miller nearly a year ago, and though he may have some big league experience on “The Nurm” (official CP nickname), he also has some HUGE holes in his stand up game.

Also, several other gambling sites have Josh Neer listed as a slight underdog to Duane Ludwig at the moment, which could net you a small profit with a lone bet. Neer has a much better ground game, an arguably better gas tank, and only been stopped by strikes once in his career. Placing a small bet on “The Dentist” doesn’t seem like a terrible idea, but keep that one away from your parlay.

Tread Lightly: When placing your bet on Pat Barry. Don’t get us wrong, if Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione were able to stop Christian Morecraft in the fashion they did, then “HD” should by all means have his way with him. But anyone who possesses a basic submission knowledge poses a threat to Barry *cough* Tim Hague, anyone?* We still like him to win, but aren’t going to bet the house on this one. He makes a nice addition to a parlay though.

Official CagePotato Parlay: Miller + Easton + Barry + Denis

100 bucks nets you $367.65 in return. Now, let’s all hold hands and pray to our collective Gods that we don’t have to pay another visit to Big Tim after this one.

-Danga 

Gambling Addiction Enabler: UFC 137 Edition

 ufc 137
(Not yet………………………………..getting warmer…….)

UFC 137 is just around the bend, and since the lineup has made more changes than a MTV awards show host, we figured we’d lay out the current odds before something else horrible happens. So, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, check out the sweetest lines available, along with our time tested advice below.

PPV Main Card
B.J. Penn (-115) vs. Nick Diaz (-105)
Matt Mitrione (-135) vs. Cheick Kongo (+115)
Roy Nelson (-290) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+245)
Hatsu Hioki (-330) vs. George Roop (+270)
There is no line yet available for the recently bumped up Tavares/Jacoby fight.

Spike TV Prelims
Donald Cerrone (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)
Tyson Griffin (-290) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+245)

The undercard odds have yet to be released as well, but we only bet big here, so forgeddaboutit!

The Main Event:

 ufc 137
(Not yet………………………………..getting warmer…….)

UFC 137 is just around the bend, and since the lineup has made more changes than a MTV awards show host, we figured we’d lay out the current odds before something else horrible happens. So, courtesy of BestFightOdds.com, check out the sweetest lines available, along with our time tested advice below.

PPV Main Card
B.J. Penn (-115) vs. Nick Diaz (-105)
Matt Mitrione (-135) vs. Cheick Kongo (+115)
Roy Nelson (-290) vs. Mirko Filipovic (+245)
Hatsu Hioki (-330) vs. George Roop (+270)
There is no line yet available for the recently bumped up Tavares/Jacoby fight.

Spike TV Prelims
Donald Cerrone (-225) vs. Dennis Siver (+185)
Tyson Griffin (-290) vs. Bart Palaszewski (+245)

The undercard odds have yet to be released as well, but we only bet big here, so forgeddaboutit!

The Main Event: With a line as even as Penn/Diaz, you might as well be basing your pick on attendance records at this point. Both are excellent submission artists with equally deadly striking and blocks of granite for chins. It has all the ingredients for one hell of a fight, but a hard one to invest in. If the fight is changed to a five rounder, which is still up in the air, you gotta think it favors Diaz, who can literally run, swim, and cycle miles around Penn. But Paul Daley was pretty damn close to finishing him in his last fight, I don’t care what anyone says. So if you think Penn is the man to actually put Diaz away, then a modest bet wouldn’t be a terrible decision.

The Good Dogs: If Cheick Kongo’s miracle win over Pat Barry taught us anything, it’s that the man can take a licking and keep on ticking. Does Mitrione have more power in his hands than Barry? Doubtful. Has he fought anyone even close to Kongo’s level? Nope. It’s not that Mitrione can’t win it, because Kongo has looked less than brilliant as of late, the Hail Mary knockout excluded. But Kongo’s experience should pay dividends if this goes into the later rounds, so a bet on him seems fair. Having been the underdog before, Siver is tempting at +185, but he barely eeked out the nod over Matt Wiman (which I believe he deserved) and Cerrone will dictate where and how the fight takes place.

The Easy Bet: Look, I am about as big a Cro Cop fan as you get get, but even I cannot see him winning this one. Nelson has a far superior ground game plus the power to knock Cro Cop out, which, let’s be honest, has been getting to be less and less of an accomplishment. And if Mirko couldn’t knockout the man Big Nog knocked out in half a round, then he aint’ doing it to “Big Country.” I see this one ending with Cro Cop flat on his back and looking up at the lights, wondering why in the hell he named his son Filip Filipovic.

Stay the Hell Away From: George Roop. The man has never been one for consistency, and though he has scored brilliant knockouts over Chan Sung Jung and Josh Grispi, he was also blown out of the water by Mark Hominick, and has dropped decisions to Eddie Wineland and Shane Nelson. Shane who you ask? Exactly. Hatsu Hioki takes this with ease.

Official CagePotato parlay: Kongo + Nelson + Cerrone
A bet of 50 bucks nets you $158.82, or enough to buy that UFC glove autographed by Fedor Emelianenko you’ve always wanted, though I imagine its asking price is only headed downhill.

And hey, Happy We Killed Another Terrorist Day!!

-Danga