The UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler card is filling up fast, Nation, and has recently added a pair of intriguing bouts featuring TUF winners as well as matchup between top featherweights. Let’s get right to it…
“The Venezuelan Vixen” may not have made many friends in the TUF household (which we imagine she wasn’t there to do in the first place), but her performances in the octagon spoke for themselves. With stoppage victories over Shayna Baszler (rear-naked choke), Sarah Moras (guillotine) and Jessica Rakoczy (TKO), Pena is riding high on momentum at the moment, and she’ll need plenty of it against Jessica Andrade.
Currently 10-3 and 1-1 in the octagon, Andrade is submission specialist who has tangled with the likes of Liz Carmouche, Rosi Sexton and Jennifer Maia. She has only been the distance twice in her professional career, and while the holes in her wrestling game were exposed by Carmouche at UFC on FOX 8, she should easily make for the toughest test of the TUF winner’s career come March 15th.
The UFC 171: Hendricks vs. Lawler card is filling up fast, Nation, and has recently added a pair of intriguing bouts featuring TUF winners as well as matchup between top featherweights. Let’s get right to it…
“The Venezuelan Vixen” may not have made many friends in the TUF household (which we imagine she wasn’t there to do in the first place), but her performances in the octagon spoke for themselves. With stoppage victories over Shayna Baszler (rear-naked choke), Sarah Moras (guillotine) and Jessica Rakoczy (TKO), Pena is riding high on momentum at the moment, and she’ll need plenty of it against Jessica Andrade.
Currently 10-3 and 1-1 in the octagon, Andrade is submission specialist who has tangled with the likes of Liz Carmouche, Rosi Sexton and Jennifer Maia. She has only been the distance twice in her professional career, and while the holes in her wrestling game were exposed by Carmouche at UFC on FOX 8, she should easily make for the toughest test of the TUF winner’s career come March 15th.
In his first post-TUF appearance, season 17 winner Kelvin Gastelum showed that his victory over Uriah Hall was no fluke, dominating and submitting the now retired Brian Melancon in just two minutes at Fight Night 27 last August. The win kept Gastelum’s unblemished record intact, but unfortunately, bad luck would rear its head in the form of a PCL tear that would force him out of his UFC on FOX 9 fight with fellow TUF winner Court McGee.
Thankfully, Gastelum’s legs are not held together by tissue paper and dental floss, so he will be making a quick turnaround against veteran Rick Story. “The Horror” has been struggling with consistency for the past couple of years, going win-loss over his past five contests, but recently scored a unanimous decision victory over the returning Brian Ebersole at UFC 167. A win over Gastelum would easily make for his biggest since defeating Thiago Alves at UFC 130, so expect an all out war for this one, Nation.
Call me crazy, but this is the matchup I’m most excited to see out of the three. Despite a minor setback against Marcus Brimage last year, Hettes has been on fire since entering the UFC, scoring submission wins over Alex Caceres and Robert Whiteford and dominating Nam Phan en route to a decision at UFC 141. Bermudez, on the other hand, has notched five straight victories since coming up short in the TUF 14 finals.
We all know Bermudez and Matt Grice put on a Fight of the Year contender at UFC 157, but “The Menace” also scored highly-entertaining decision victories over Max Holloway and Steven Siler in 2013 as well. The winner of this fight could easily find himself facing a top 10 opponent next, is what I’m getting at. In fact, if I were to GIF-rank this fight, I’d have to give it a solid
Can’t argue with the facts, folks.
UFC 171 goes down on March 15th from the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.
Filed under: MMA Media Watch, UFCSunday morning marked the airing of an Outside the Lines segment on ESPN that was denounced by UFC President Dana White before he had even seen it — a show that presented the UFC’s pay model as one that richly rewards …
Sunday morning marked the airing of an Outside the Lines segment on ESPN that was denounced by UFC President Dana White before he had even seen it — a show that presented the UFC’s pay model as one that richly rewards a handful of favorite stars while paying the majority of fighters as interchangeable drones.
White has already promised a response, and he’ll surely say that ESPN’s report contained incomplete information about how much the company pays its fighters. And he’ll surely be right, for the simple reason that the UFC, like many private businesses, keeps what it pays its workers confidential. ESPN deserves credit for attempting to uncover the closely guarded secret of how much UFC fighters actually make, but specific dollar amounts were lacking in this report.
For all the work that went into the Outside the Lines report, we still don’t know how much the UFC really pays its fighters.
“Outside the Lines has spoken with more than 20 current, former and potential UFC fighters, as well as agents and promoters,” ESPN’s John Barr said as he strolled around a cage in the televised segment. “To a person, they say UFC fighters have not received their fair share of the company’s rapidly increasing revenue. Nearly all of them also refused to speak on camera, for fear the UFC would blackball them.”
But the fact that ESPN couldn’t get any active fighters to speak — and especially to reveal specific dollar amounts — was the biggest flaw in the report. The report did make a strong case that highly paid UFC fighters make far more than low-level fighters make. In that respect the UFC follows a pay model similar to that of Hollywood studios, where a handful of stars make the bulk of the money, and the bit players are left with much less.
And while UFC co-owner Lorenzo Fertitta claimed that the UFC pays its fighters in the neighborhood of 50 percent of all the promotion’s revenues, ESPN’s investigation made a convincing case that the UFC actually pays less than that.
However, there were also some weaknesses of ESPN’s reporting, which pegged the actual amount the UFC pays its fighters as “roughly 10 percent of the revenue.”
ESPN.com initially reported that the median annual income for UFC fighters was $17,000 to $23,000 a year, citing figures compiled by Rob Maysey of the Mixed Martial Arts Fighters Association. ESPN later corrected that report and said the $17,000 to $23,000 figure was actually the median pay per fight, not per year. However, even those corrected numbers do not appear to include sponsorships, bonuses and other forms of income that UFC fighters make.
And median pay per fight isn’t necessarily a particularly telling statistic. Consider a low-level UFC newcomer who signs a contract that guarantees him $6,000 to show, and another $6,000 to win for his first fight, then $8,000 for his second fight and $10,000 for his third. If that fighter fights three times, wins all three fights and earns a $75,000 Knockout of the Night bonus in his third fight, his median pay per fight would only be $16,000. But his total pay for the three fights would be $123,000, for an average of $41,000 a fight.
For an example of an entry-level fighter who has cashed in big time with bonuses, look at Edson Barboza, who signed with the UFC in 2010 after having six pro fights in small regional promotions. Barboza’s “show money” is reportedly just $6,000 a fight. But Barboza has won all four of his fights, meaning he also got a $6,000 win bonus for all four fights, and Barboza has received three Fight of the Night bonuses and one Knockout of the Night bonus (including both Fight of the Night and Knockout of the Night on Saturday at UFC 142). Thanks to the UFC’s bonus-heavy pay structure, Barboza’s total take for his first four UFC fights is at least $348,000, even before any sponsorships or other sources of income.
Even without bonuses, entry-level fighters aren’t necessarily doing too badly. One such fighter is UFC featherweight Jim Hettes. Hettes was an unknown in MMA circles, fighting on the regional scene, until he caught a break in August and signed with the UFC on a deal that paid him $6,000 to show and $6,000 to win on his first fight, and then $8,000 to show and $8,000 to win on his second fight. Hettes won both fights, for a total take of $28,000, and is now looking like one of the brightest young prospects in the featherweight division.
For a 24-year-old like Hettes, making $28,000 in five months while fighting in the UFC, with a good chance of making a lot more than that in the future, is a dream come true. ESPN didn’t quote any active fighters complaining about their pay on the record and indicated that the inability to find such fighters was a sign that fighters were scared to speak out. But maybe the reality is most UFC fighters are OK with what they make.
In fact, when low-level fighters are released from the UFC because of losses they suffer in the Octagon, they almost universally express a desire to win enough fights in other promotions to earn the right to return to the UFC — which strongly suggests that they don’t view the contracts they’ve just been released from as onerous.
The handful of mid-level fighters who have been released from the UFC for reasons having to do with issues outside the Octagon (fighters like Jon Fitch, Nate Marquardt and Miguel Torres) also generally apologize for their transgressions and ask to return to the UFC. Again, that suggests that the contracts they were released from were better than the contracts they could earn in other promotions.
And the few prominent fighters who have become free agents, like Tito Ortiz, have generally decided when the dust settled that the grass was greener inside the Octagon than out of it. UFC Hall of Famer Ken Shamrock appeared in the Outside the Lines report, and it may not have been clear to viewers who aren’t MMA fans that Shamrock made millions of dollars in the UFC, or that Shamrock left the promotion because he wasn’t good enough to win inside the Octagon anymore, not because he objected to the terms of his contract. That was clarified, however, in the panel discussion that took place after Barr’s taped Outside the Lines report.
It is true that a handful of well-known fighters have been able to leave the UFC and make more money elsewhere. That includes former heavyweight champions Andrei Arlovski and Tim Sylvia, who both left the UFC to sign with Affliction in 2008. But Affliction fell apart after putting on just two fight cards, which suggests that its higher-paying business model didn’t work.
ESPN’s report would have been strengthened by addressing other promotions’ business models, including not only Affliction but also Bellator and other smaller American MMA organizations. The UFC is by far the biggest MMA promotion and therefore deserves to have by far the greatest scrutiny, but a comparison of the UFC’s pay scale with other promotions’ pay scales would have provided some valuable context.
Ultimately, as former UFC heavyweight champion Ricco Rodriguez said on Outside the Lines, “The UFC gives you the best opportunity.” It would be great to see more opportunities for more fighters, but at the moment, even if UFC pay is lacking, it beats the alternatives in MMA.
So it’s official: horse meat > beef jerky. (Photo: UFC.com)
There was a time when the UFC had trouble drumming up any interest at all in their heavyweight division—can you say ‘Arlovski vs. Buentello for the title!!!’?—but those days are long gone. One could point to the growth of the sport attracting big men from other sports, or credit training camps for churning out well-rounded fighters, but much of the interest in the revitalized division has been carried by the broad, skull-tatted shoulders of one man.
Brock Lesnar’s 2008 debut in the Octagon brought interest, intrigue, and—most importantly—eyeballs. Lots of them. Speculation over whether the big man could survive against a real fighter was rampant, but before long we were asking if anyone could survive in a real fight against him. He quickly smashed his way to the top of the 265 lb. heap, but his skid down that mountain was just as fast. Following two brutal, first-round losses to Cain Velasquez and Alistair Overeem, Brock is ready to hang up the gloves. Looking back at his brief career, if it is truly over, one thing becomes painfully clear: Brock Lesnar doesn’t love fighting; Brock Lesnar loves beating people up. While those two interests often intertwine, they quickly diverge when you start getting tagged. For all of the debates over Brock’s questionable chin and concerns for vegetable-rejecting body, the real downfall of his MMA career was his heart. He doesn’t love this fighting game, and MMA is a cruel mistress. If you can’t fully commit to her, you can expect to find a pile of shredded “Clutch Gear” shirts on the doorstep when you get home from the bar. Brock seems to have gotten that message and is packing his things and moving on with his life.
So it’s official: horse meat > beef jerky. (Photo: UFC.com)
There was a time when the UFC had trouble drumming up any interest at all in their heavyweight division—can you say ‘Arlovski vs. Buentello for the title!!!’?—but those days are long gone. One could point to the growth of the sport attracting big men from other sports, or credit training camps for churning out well-rounded fighters, but much of the interest in the revitalized division has been carried by the broad, skull-tatted shoulders of one man.
Brock Lesnar‘s 2008 debut in the Octagon brought interest, intrigue, and—most importantly—eyeballs. Lots of them. Speculation over whether the big man could survive against a real fighter was rampant, but before long we were asking if anyone could survive in a real fight against him. He quickly smashed his way to the top of the 265 lb. heap, but his skid down that mountain was just as fast. Following two brutal, first-round losses to Cain Velasquez and Alistair Overeem, Brock is ready to hang up the gloves. Looking back at his brief career, if it is truly over, one thing becomes painfully clear: Brock Lesnar doesn’t love fighting; Brock Lesnar loves beating people up. While those two interests often intertwine, they quickly diverge when you start getting tagged. For all of the debates over Brock’s questionable chin and concerns for vegetable-rejecting body, the real downfall of his MMA career was his heart. He doesn’t love this fighting game, and MMA is a cruel mistress. If you can’t fully commit to her, you can expect to find a pile of shredded “Clutch Gear” shirts on the doorstep when you get home from the bar. Brock seems to have gotten that message and is packing his things and moving on with his life.
While the UFC is losing their biggest draw in the form of Lesnar, they may have found a future star in Alistair Overeem. He may not cut a polarizing promo, but he’s built like an Adonis and is capable of delivering incredible pain with each of his limbs. He shirked off Lesnar’s takedowns with ease, but they didn’t have the desperate commitment behind them that they should have, not even close. If you believe Overeem to be an unstoppable force then your fire was fueled last night, and if you doubt his place at the top of the food chain you’ll undoubtedly focus on Brock’s uninspired performance rather than those destructive knees and kicks. You can argue over how he’ll do against the rest of the field, and frankly we hope you do.
If Lesnar’s wild ride in the heavyweight division resembled a violent tsunami, Jon Fitch’s dominance over the welterweight landscape has spread like continental drift. After 145 consecutive minutes of anti-climactic fighting, the sport’s least celebrated grinder was toppled in the blink of an eye. If rebounding from a gutsy loss to GSP—his only defeat in twenty two consecutive bouts–with five straight wins and a hard fought draw did nothing to place his name back “in the mix” for a second shot at the belt, it’s hard to imagine what it will take for Fitch to earn one now. For Johny Hendricks it’s the sort of victory that a fighter can build his name on, but despite the divisional upheaval caused by GSP’s injury it’s a little premature to be calling for a title shot. While Diaz and Condit fight for the interim strap, he can kill some time spending that $75k ‘Knock Out of the Night” bonus.
Lightweights Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone also picked up some spending cash with their “Fight of the Night” bonuses. Nate cooked up the Diaz family recipe of 11-punch combinations and trash talk, and he served it to Cerrone for a full three rounds. “Cowboy” was overwhelmed by Diaz’s trademark punches in bunches, but did little to change up his game plan and alter his attack. He found success with kicks, sweeping the Stockton tough’s legs out from under him on several occasions, but then it was back to accepting the short end of the stick in a lopsided boxing match. For Cerrone it was a sour ending to a tremendous year, and for Diaz another imposing performance at 155 lbs.
After missing with a couple of wild strikes, Matyushenko charged right into a perfectly timed jab. Gustafsson dropped him with the strike and followed it up with ground and pound to end the bout in just over two minutes. It was the lanky Swede’s fifth win and fifth stoppage in the Octagon. The twenty-four year old’s long frame and composed dominance over a veteran like Matyushenko should raise some eyebrows at 205 lbs.
And what can you say about Jim Hette’s performance that the scorecards didn’t? 30-25, 30-25 and 30-26 pretty much sums it up. He sent Nam Phan flying repeatedly and beat him up on the ground. He needs to bring his cardio in line with the rest of his game, but he’s a perfect 10-0 with two impressive wins in the UFC and looks to be a very promising prospect in the featherweight division.
Main Bouts (on Pay-Per-View): -Alistair Overeem def. Brock Lesnar by TKO at 2:26, R1
-Nate Diaz def. Donald Cerrone by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
-Johny Hendricks def. Jon Fitch by KO at :12, R1
-Alexander Gustafsson def. Vladimir Matyushenko by TKO at 2:13, R1
–Jim Hettes def. Nam Phan by unanimous decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-26)
Preliminary Bouts (on Spike TV):
-Ross Pearson def. Junior Assuncao by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
-Danny Castillo def. Anthony Njokuani by split decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Preliminary Bouts (on Facebook): -Dong Hyun Kim def. Sean Pierson by unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
-Jacob Volkmann def. Efrain Escudero by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
-Matt Riddle vs. Luis Ramos: CANCELLED due to Illness
-Diego Nunes def. Manny Gamburyan by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
(Upon encountering the crazed polar bear, Alistair stretches his arms out, hoping to make himself appear larger. / Photos courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more from this set, click here.)
529 pounds of mean son-of-a-bitch will be colliding tonight in Las Vegas as former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar takes on Strikeforce/DREAM/K-1 champion Alistair Overeem in the main event of UFC 141. Plus, Nate Diaz and Donald Cerrone settle their beef in the lightweight division, and Jon Fitch goes for his tenth-straight decision against Johny Hendricks. But first, the final Spike TV prelims broadcast ever, featuring a TUF winner and a pair of WEC standouts. Not a bad way to kick off New Year’s weekend.
Round-by-round results from UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem will be piling up after the jump beginning at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT; refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest. And while you’re waiting, feel free to share your New Year’s resolutions in the comments section.
(Upon encountering the crazed polar bear, Alistair stretches his arms out, hoping to make himself appear larger. / Photos courtesy of CombatLifestyle.com. For more from this set, click here.)
529 pounds of mean son-of-a-bitch will be colliding tonight in Las Vegas as former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar takes on Strikeforce/DREAM/K-1 champion Alistair Overeem in the main event of UFC 141. Plus, Nate Diaz and Donald Cerronesettle their beef in the lightweight division, and Jon Fitch goes for his tenth-straight decision against Johny Hendricks. But first, the final Spike TV prelims broadcast ever, featuring a TUF winner and a pair of WEC standouts. Not a bad way to kick off New Year’s weekend.
Round-by-round results from UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem will be piling up after the jump beginning at 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT; refresh the page every few minutes for all the latest. And while you’re waiting, feel free to share your New Year’s resolutions in the comments section.
Facebook prelim results:
– Diego Nunes def. Manny Gamburyan via unanimous decision (29–28 x 3)
– Matt Riddle vs. Luis Ramos was cancelled hours before the event due to Riddle being too ill to fight.
– Dong Hyun Kim def. Sean Pierson via unanimous decision (30-27 x 3)
Anthony Njokuani vs. Danny Castillo
This fight is brought to you by Gina Carano’s breasts. Uh, I mean Haywire, directed by Steven Soderbergh.
Round 1: Njokuani throwing to the head and body. Castillo looks for a takedown but is rebuffed. Njokuani doing a good job early of keeping him at bay. But inevitably, Castillo grabs Njokuani’s waist and drags him down. Njokuani gets to his feet and is slammed back down. He gets up again but Castillo is on his back throwing knees to his legs. Njokuani tries to spin out and escape, but Castillo takes him down again. Njokuani’s back is against the fence. Njokuani gets up, and gets slammed. He gets up again, Castillo returns to back control. He tries slamming Njokuani and nearly finds a choke in a scramble. But Njokuani reverses and tries a guillotine choke of his own. Castillo slams out of it and they’re up and clinched again. They separate and Njokuani misses some punches before the bell. 10-9 Castillo.
Round 2: Njokuani opens with a front kick to the face that misses. He sticks a jab. A body kick misses. He fires a punch combo. Castillo just biding his time until the takedown, it seems. He shoots, Njokuani sprawls. Njokuani rushes forward and fires a flying knee. Castillo grabs him but can’t hold him. Njokuani lands a hook to the ribs. Castillo misses a leg kick. Castillo shoots and Njokuani grabs a thai clinch and punishes Castillo with knees and an elbow before separating. Njokuani staggers Castillo with a right hand. Castillo clinches up and takes Njokuani down, giving himself some time to clear the cobwebs. Short punches to the body from Castillo. Castillo trying to get some distance but Njokuani is holding him down. But then he explodes out and they’re against the fence again. Castillo gets the fight to the mat once more before the bell. You might give that round to Njokuani 10-9 for the significant strikes he landed before Castillo took the fight back into his world.
Round 3: Castillo ducks under Njokuani’s punches to shoot, but Njokuani defends. Njokuani lands a straight right. Castillo shoots from a mile away and eats a knee to the ribs on the way up. But he stays on Njokuani and slams him down against the cage. Njokuani sitting against the fence, Castillo hugging his waist tightly, but not doing much else. Boooo. Njokuani stands. Castillo with some wall-and-stall. Castillo moves to the back and Njokuani rolls for a leglock to free himself. He gets up and they separate. Njokuani looking for the thai clinch. Njokuani throws a front kick and Castillo snatches him up, returning him to his familiar position against the fence. Njokuani stands. Castillo hanging off his back. Njokuani shakes out and throws steady punches in the last 30 seconds. He lands a leg kick and some punches, and fires a flying knee at the bell. “Very good fight,” Joe Rogan says. “Meh,” I say. They’ll probably give it to Castillo for the ground control, but he really didn’t do any damage.
Castillo def. Njokuani via split decision (29-28 x 2, 28-29). The crowd boos it pretty hard. “Was that close to you?” Castillo asks, genuinely surprised. Castillo explains that he took three of his four fights this year on less than four weeks’ notice and tries to get some respect from the fans, which they give, begrudgingly. He walks off in a bad mood.
Ross Pearson vs. Junior Assuncao
Round 1: Pearson stalking, Assuncao staying elusive. Assuncao grabs Pearson as he’s throwing a big right hand and takes him to the mat. Assuncao works to Pearson’s back. Pearson breaks out, lands a knee and throws a pair of left hooks to brush Assuncao back. Swing and a miss from Assuncao. He throws a head kick. Assuncao goes for a telegraphed TD attempt and Pearson defends it and lands another knee. Assuncao clinches up and lands a left elbow on the exit. Pearson rushes forward with a left hook. Body kick Pearson, Assuncao returns some punches. Pearson lands a knee on a takedown attempt from Assuncao. Assuncao touches Pearson up with a crisp punching combo. Leg kick Pearson. Body kick Assuncao. Pearson tries a superman punch. The round ends. Close, though Pearson was certainly the aggressor.
Round 2: Body kick Assuncao. Pearson punching, Assuncao dodging. Assuncao scores a takedown. Pearson gets to his feet and escapes. Leg kick Pearson. Assuncao goes for a single leg. Pearson defends. Assuncao tries it again, Pearson defends again. Assuncao clinches as Pearson comes forward. Pearson sets up the thai clinch and Assuncao gets the eff out of dodge. Pearson lands a nice body shot then stumbles Assuncao with a jab. He pours on the abuse, landing a knee, more body shots. Assuncao clinches to make it stop. Knee to the body from Pearson. Assuncao escapes and Pearson chases. Assuncao goes for the single-leg. Pearson defends and tosses Assuncao to the mat with a judo trip. Assuncao gets up and returns the favor. Assuncao in Pearson’s guard. Pearson escapes and Assuncao fires heavy punches in the closing seconds.
Round 3: Pearson steps forward with a leg kick. Pearson eats a jab and Assuncao takes him down. Assuncao looks for a rear-naked choke on the mat. Pearson escapes and gets to his feet. They clinch against the fence, then separate. Assuncao scores a takedown, but Pearson is up within a second. Knee to the dome from Assuncao. Pearson separates but eats a punch. Assuncao stays on him, tenaciously. Pearson gets some space, throws a knee, lands a leg kick. Asssuncao grabs on, Pearson turns him around against the fence. Dirty boxing from both sides. Pearson fires a head kick and follows it up with a solid knee to Assuncao’s head. Pearson lands in close. He smells blood and presses forward with punches. Assuncao grabs his leg and the horn sounds. Pearson might have this one wrapped up.
Pearson def. Assuncao via unanimous decision (29-28 x 2, 30-27). No time for an interview. And so, the prelims end with five straight decisions and a withdrawal due to illness. Let’s hope things pick up during the main card. Speaking of which, hit that “next page” link to continue to our UFC 141 pay-per-view coverage…
Filed under: UFCFor UFC 141, the Vegas-based promotion is back home in the arms of the city that’s never more than one good heater away from turning this mess around. Will Friday night be the evening you finally outsmart the oddsmakers and let your obs…
For UFC 141, the Vegas-based promotion is back home in the arms of the city that’s never more than one good heater away from turning this mess around. Will Friday night be the evening you finally outsmart the oddsmakers and let your obsessive MMA knowledge pay you back for all those pay-per-views? Only one way to find out…
The line on Overeem has gone as high as -200 in some places before coming back down to the more reasonable levels we see here. We all know how Lesnar feels about being the underdog. Or at least, we know that asking him how he feels about it is a great way to get him to suddenly terminate your interview. But why are fans and oddsmakers so hot on Overeem, who didn’t look spectacular in his last outing, and has had every distraction possible without beginning an acting career in the lead-up to this fight?
If I had to guess, I’d say it’s a combination of Overeem’s experience and a general pessimism about Lesnar. A little over a year ago he was the baddest man on the planet to many onlookers, but one loss and one colon-chopping surgery later and people are wondering if he’ll retire if he can’t beat Overeem. For better or worse, the pendulum swings hard on the subject of Lesnar, and there’s very little middle ground to be found. But the fact is, the former NCAA wrestling champ presents a difficult challenge for Overeem, who hasn’t faced a takedown threat this significant since, well, ever. Seriously, look at Overeem’s record and find me another big man with Lesnar’s wrestling skills. It’s one thing to shut down Fabricio Werdum’s takedowns, but Lesnar is a whole different problem. If Overeem had spent months working diligently on his takedown defense — in fact, if he had spent months doing any one thing in any one place — I’d be more optimistic. With all the distractions, the roving camp, and the possibility of Octagon jitters for a man with an unproven ability to shut down a powerhouse wrestler, optimism is in short supply over here. My pick: Lesnar. There’s always the possibility that one good punch or knee from The Reem will change his world, but when I add up all the variables I have no problem justifying the slight underdog pick.
This feels like an instance of oddsmakers getting the right guy, but to the wrong degree. Cerrone deserves to be the favorite, especially after the year he’s had, but Diaz’s tenacity, durability, and submissions game make him impossible to count out. Even if Cerrone batters Diaz bloody on the feet — and he very well may — he’s probably going to have to keep it up for three rounds. Diaz doesn’t go down easily, and his sheer pace and pressure has been known to make opponents do dumb things from time to time. At the same time, Diaz doesn’t seem capable of performing the kind of risk/reward calculus necessary to conclude that he needs to get the fight to the mat. If you’re beating him on the feet, chances are it will only make him more committed to fighting on the feet. If that’s the case, his best hope might be to keep the heat on and trash-talk Cerrone into a stupid mistake. My pick: Cerrone. I couldn’t possibly justify favoring him to this extreme, so I’ll save it for the parlay.
Oh, did you forget Fitch was on this card? You’re probably not alone. It’s easy to get dwarfed by the enormity of Lesnar and Overeem, and the Cerrone-Diaz fight promises exactly the kind of fireworks that a typical Fitch fight all but rules out. As a result, he flies under the radar in another fight that he’ll most likely win with his methodical, technical brilliance on the mat. You have to hand it to him: the man is outstanding at what he does. It’s just too bad that so many fans don’t enjoy what he does, no matter how well he does it. Hendricks would seem to have the pure wresting credentials to strap on the singlet and go takedown for takedown with Fitch, but he doesn’t quite have the high-level experience to make you feel comfortable with picking him over a vet like Fitch. My pick: Fitch. It won’t be much fun to watch, but it will be in my parlay.
It’s kind of amazing that the 41-year-old Matyushenko still has this much steam. He’s not in the title hunt at the moment, but when you look at the loss column of his record all you see are serious players (okay, and Vernon White, who Vladdy will still tell you he should have beaten that night in 1999). Still, the odds reflect a general feeling that Gustafsson is on his way up the ranks, whereas Matyushenko is doing well just to hang around where he is. Could Matyushenko outwrestle the big Swede? Sure he could. But just because Phil Davis managed to do it, that doesn’t mean it’s easy. My pick: Gustafsson. That line is slightly ridiculous, however, so I’ll add it to the parlay.
Have other people been seeing a different Nam Phan than I have lately? Because the guy I’ve seen is competent and fairly well-rounded, but he’s the not the type of guy I’d lay 2-1 odds for when he’s fighting a submissions wiz who has yet to find out what defeat tastes like. Granted, we don’t know if Hettes’ chokes are as easily applied to the upper echelon guys, but while Phan’s fought the bigger names, he didn’t always do so well against them. It’s not so hard to imagine him being taken down and submitted, just like it’s not so hard to imagine me talking myself into taking one of the safer underdogs on the card just so I don’t feel like a wuss for going with so many favorites. My pick: Hettes. There’s a chance Phan could prove himself worthy of those odds, but I don’t think he’s done it yet.
Quick picks:
– Matt Riddle (-130) over Luis Ramos (even). Riddle knows he needs a win, so look for him to play it smart and get it by any means necessary.
– Ross Pearson (-280) over Junior Assuncao (+220). No, it’s not exactly daring, but it is a safe place for your hard-earned money.
The ‘For Entertainment Purposes Only’ Parlay: You know what? Forget my weak list of favorites and very slight underdogs. If you’ve got guts and a little pocket change, I recommend taking a look at this totally insane parlay that our friends at Middle Easy have stumbled upon. It’s a longshot that could make for a very happy New Year.
News broke earlier today that our favorite little appendage manipulator, Rousimar Palhares, has agreed to face New Jersey’s Mike Massenzio at UFC 142 in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. And although allowing Palhares to compete in his home country nearly cost him a victory over Dan Miller (who is also a Jersey native, ironically) in his last bout, “Toquinho” will no doubt be looking to impress against Massenzio, who may be fighting for his UFC career come January 14th. Just 1-3 in his last 4 UFC bouts (2-4 overall), Massenzio most recently scored a unanimous decision victory over the similarly struggling Steve Cantwell at UFC 136, making it Cantwell’s fourth straight decision loss in as many contests.
News broke earlier today that our favorite little appendage manipulator, Rousimar Palhares, has agreed to face New Jersey’s Mike Massenzio at UFC 142 in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil. And although allowing Palhares to compete in his home country nearly cost him a victory over Dan Miller (who is also a Jersey native, ironically) in his last bout, “Toquinho” will no doubt be looking to impress against Massenzio, who may be fighting for his UFC career come January 14th. Just 1-3 in his last 4 UFC bouts (2-4 overall), Massenzio most recently scored a unanimous decision victory over the similarly struggling Steve Cantwell at UFC 136, making it Cantwell’s fourth straight decision loss in as many contests.
Elsewhere in the MMA world, an interesting featherweight contest between Nam Phan and Jim Hettes has been added to UFC 141, which goes down at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas on December 30th. Phan is coming off a wild decision victory over Leonard Garcia, also at UFC 136, that saw the TUF 12 contestant erase the controversial decision he dropped to Garcia back at the TUF 12 Finale nearly a year ago.
Hettes, a submission fighter out of Pennsylvania, made his octagon debut as a last minute replacement for Leonard Garcia, coincidentally, and snagged a quick submission victory over Alex “Bruce Leroy” Caceres at UFC Live: Lytle vs. Hardy back in August. Aquiring all of his 9 victories by submission, it will be intriguing to see if “The Kid” is able to overcome Phan’s precise striking attack.
Sunday morning marked the airing of an Outside the Lines segment on ESPN that was denounced by 
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